Brexit

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OutOfBreath
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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Sun May 12, 2019 5:39 am

Oh well. :roll:
Although I guess that it's actually hard to distinguish norway as a nonEU member, since we're part of just about everything in the EU.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu May 16, 2019 3:29 pm

The next Brexit vote in Parliament is scheduled for the first week in June and Mrs May will present her Brexit plan for the fourth time. This time, however, she's promised to resign if it doesn't pass (which it won't as it still contains the EU's backstop for Northern Ireland).
So, place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. Michael Gove is a safe bet (to stand, not to win). Angela Leadsom is a sure thing (to stand, not to win), but keep your eyes on Esther McVey. But the clear leader in the popular betting odds is Boris Johnson. You have been warned.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Thu May 16, 2019 4:51 pm

With unity can come peace and prosperity, but it can also lead to loss of freedom and centralization of power. When the United States came together, they reluctantly granted limited powers to the federal government, chiefly for national defense and to eliminate tariffs between the states. But since that time, the states have been losing ground as the federal government has usurped more and more power ever since.

The same has been true for all the consolidated nation-states and empires since they were formed. Some jurisdictions fought to maintain their independence, but others thoughtlessly gave it away. It's very hard to take back power once it's lost. The British have watched much of their freedoms stripped away and their fate decided in capitals far away and by non-British leaders. They have paid far more of their share into the kitty, while other slacking countries have taken the free ride.

It's healthy for all forms of unions to question their central leadership and to assert their own rights and freedoms, but not at the expense of the whole. Brexit is a healthy exercise for all of us, who should remain wary of those bent on taking away our independence in the name of unity.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri May 17, 2019 12:43 am

landrew: well written, but just overly simplified over assuming general blather. EVERY situation has pros and cons totally obfuscated the more generalized a blather is.

IIRC or IIPC (if I perceive correctly) Brexit was initiated and passed because of valid and invalid concerns about unwanted immigration caused by other EU members not controlling their borders or as with Germany actually inviting immigrants in.

Pros and Cons to uncontrolled immigration too, and lots of invalid concerns/bigotry involved there too.....but...some valid traiditional concerns as well. Something reasonable people can disagree about ........even to the point of leaving a union and its benefits to control the issue of concern.

Always a nice mix of things.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Fri May 17, 2019 6:52 am

Not quite, bobbo. Approximately one third of people wanting out said it was to restore immigration control. However, almost a half said it was "the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK" which they were most concerned about.
Landrew hit the nail on the head.
EDIT: Boris is now at 56%.
EDIT2: According to Iain Duncan-Smith (once the Conservative Party Leader) the EU have now given up all hope of their Irish backstop arrangement being implemented. With that out of the reckoning, the way is finally clear to do some serious negotiation.

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Fri May 17, 2019 5:32 pm

Before, Boris Johnson and other Tories supported May's deal because she promised to quit once it passed, and they saw their chance to become PM. If she is promising to quit if it fails, those votes are gone, and Labour will join them to get Corbyn the PM spot.
She might be the dumbest negotiator ever.

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat May 18, 2019 5:07 am

Poodle wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:52 am
Not quite, bobbo. Approximately one third of people wanting out said it was to restore immigration control. However, almost a half said it was "the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK" which they were most concerned about.
Landrew hit the nail on the head.
Ha, ha.............thats the "The South seceded from the Union had nothing to do with slavery, but rather states rights" NONSENSE.

Most general blather is "correct." The nail head is just too large to be useful.
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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Sat May 18, 2019 5:31 am

Nearly every Brit I've heard express an opinion has said it's mainly because of concerns over loss of independence within the European parliament. Immigration and the imbalance of trade are also concerns. But what's the relevance of popular opinion in this case? The vote has already been taken
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Re: Brexit

Post by Balmoral95 » Sat May 18, 2019 5:50 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 5:07 am
Poodle wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:52 am
Not quite, bobbo. Approximately one third of people wanting out said it was to restore immigration control. However, almost a half said it was "the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK" which they were most concerned about.
Landrew hit the nail on the head.
Ha, ha.............thats the "The South seceded from the Union had nothing to do with slavery, but rather states rights" NONSENSE.

Most general blather is "correct." The nail head is just too large to be useful.
Not seeing the analogousness of one to another.... care to elaborate?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sat May 18, 2019 5:57 am

... and is about to be taken again in the form of the elections of members of the EU parliament, in which Nigel Farage's Brexit Party are projected to gain a landslide victory. UKIP (Nigel Farage's original party which has slid into decline precisely because of its undisguised anti-immigration stance) are forecast to fail miserably.
Immigration is a very bad cover-all word. Brits on the whole tend not to be anti-immigration although there is always a vociferous minority (as in most countries). The main UK anti-immigrant complaint is the result of the stitch-up performed by Angela Merkel in 2016 when she illegally opened Germany's borders to non-EU refugees - the problem there being that Germany's borders are all well within EU borders and so any refugee bound for Germany had to cross other territories to get there. Then, after processing within Germany, EU rules were once more applied to distribute the refugees amongst other EU members whether they were willing or not.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Sat May 18, 2019 4:55 pm

Anti-immigration is a bit of a fiction. Throughout the eons of time, people moved throughout the world wherever they wanted, long before border security ever existed. People "moved in" to places like Texas and California until they simply outnumbered the original inhabitants. It's natural for any organism, including ourselves, to go to where the resources are more favorable, and all the artificial barriers in the world can only postpone the inevitable.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat May 18, 2019 9:55 pm

Balmoral95 wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 5:50 am
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 5:07 am
Poodle wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 6:52 am
Not quite, bobbo. Approximately one third of people wanting out said it was to restore immigration control. However, almost a half said it was "the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK" which they were most concerned about.
Landrew hit the nail on the head.
Ha, ha.............thats the "The South seceded from the Union had nothing to do with slavery, but rather states rights" NONSENSE.

Most general blather is "correct." The nail head is just too large to be useful.
Not seeing the analogousness of one to another.... care to elaborate?
Interesting as there are TWO analogies you reference. the first that Brexit is not about immigration being virtually NOT an analogy but an all points equivalency to The USA Civil War was not about slavery ought not need explaining? so...in my snarkiness I look to landrews meaningless generalities as like a nail head being too large? That also seems explained by its mere exposition. Hmmmm....maybe I was overly influenced having just "researched" different nails (and Glue) to use in my pantry remodel and it was too much on my mind? I think large head nails would "always" be more functional (ie==useful or meaningful) than small head finish nails. the former being easier to hammer in and more likely to hold the wood together other variables being equal.....but I bought the finish nails for the "look" of the thing widely recognized by their very name. So, to be fair the nail analogy isn't a wonderful fit other than to point out its not helpful if it is not going to be used. But I'll go with: A comment that is too general, like a nail with too large a head, may cover more of the subject at hand, but it is not useful/selected to "finish" the job because actually...........there is nothing to hammer on? Na. Doesn't really work.

You got me. ..........as stated.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat May 18, 2019 9:56 pm

landrew wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:55 pm
Anti-immigration is a bit of a fiction. Throughout the eons of time, people moved throughout the world wherever they wanted, long before border security ever existed. People "moved in" to places like Texas and California until they simply outnumbered the original inhabitants. It's natural for any organism, including ourselves, to go to where the resources are more favorable, and all the artificial barriers in the world can only postpone the inevitable.
As always (meaning 99% of the time) mostly wrong and a failure with Dictionary Skills. Being Anti-Immigration doesn't say squat about how or when immigration actually happens or doesn't happen. You are so easily distracted and unfocused.
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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Sun May 19, 2019 3:35 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 9:56 pm
landrew wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 4:55 pm
Anti-immigration is a bit of a fiction. Throughout the eons of time, people moved throughout the world wherever they wanted, long before border security ever existed. People "moved in" to places like Texas and California until they simply outnumbered the original inhabitants. It's natural for any organism, including ourselves, to go to where the resources are more favorable, and all the artificial barriers in the world can only postpone the inevitable.
As always (meaning 99% of the time) mostly wrong and a failure with Dictionary Skills. Being Anti-Immigration doesn't say squat about how or when immigration actually happens or doesn't happen. You are so easily distracted and unfocused.
Aren't you ashamed in the slightest by your childish behavior, or do you cultivate a self-gratifying state of denial within which you imagine yourself some great intellectual warrior?
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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Sun May 19, 2019 7:46 pm

Just think of all his critiques of others as referring to himself, and everything falls into place.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Sun May 19, 2019 10:38 pm

MikeN wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 7:46 pm
Just think of all his critiques of others as referring to himself, and everything falls into place.
Simple motivations are always so transparent.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun May 19, 2019 11:41 pm

landrew wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 3:35 pm

Aren't you ashamed in the slightest by your childish behavior, or do you cultivate a self-gratifying state of denial within which you imagine yourself some great intellectual warrior?
As always: critique what I say, not me. Note: Yes, I do both.

........................................Freudian Skills: what makes you think I think I'm a warrior, intellectual, or great? My nom de plume self identifies as a "class" warrior. You could even say "anti-intellectual" if you are flexible enough.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun May 19, 2019 11:43 pm

MikeN wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 7:46 pm
Just think of all his critiques of others as referring to himself, and everything falls into place.
Exactly so. EVERY critique must be measured against ones self.......or vice versa.

.................................... as we all do?
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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon May 20, 2019 7:15 am

Financial interests behind a Hard Brexit (with Stephen Fry):



short version: stupid EU rules prevent the City of London from becoming an even more extreme tax haven.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon May 20, 2019 7:49 am

Ah - good old Stephen Fry ..."Writer, actor, comedian, doer of good works, excellent good friend to the famous and not, Fry lives in his London SW1 flat and his Norfolk house when not traveling. Famous for his public declaration of celibacy in the "Tatler" back in the 1980s,"

Of course, everyone is entitled to an opinion, no matter how misinformed.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Mon May 20, 2019 4:02 pm

Fry makes a few good points, but they seem to sum up to making some specious arguments. Loss of individual power and control isn't necessary for a union to work best for all concerned. "Government derives it's power from the consent of the governed" applies at all levels of organization. When states confederated under a federal system, they did so under the understanding that their own power would be preserved in the union, and the federal government was essentially an agent for affairs between states and for issues that concern the union as a whole, such as tariffs and national defense. Gradually, over time the powers of the individual states are usurped when vigilance lapses. Britain is uncomfortable with the centralization of powers in the European Union that need not be given away. It's a mistake to think power should be traded away for any reason.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 20, 2019 4:43 pm

landrew wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 4:02 pm
It's a mistake to think power should be traded away for any reason.
Why is power more beneficial to a State than any of the other interests a State has?===>often stability and security?, leading to wealth??
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 20, 2019 4:45 pm

Poodle wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 7:49 am
Ah - good old Stephen Fry ..."Writer, actor, comedian, doer of good works, excellent good friend to the famous and not, Fry lives in his London SW1 flat and his Norfolk house when not traveling. Famous for his public declaration of celibacy in the "Tatler" back in the 1980s,"

Of course, everyone is entitled to an opinion, no matter how misinformed.
celibate: Abstaining from sexual intercourse //// hmmmm.....did Fry MEAN no sex at all, or just no sex with women?
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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Mon May 20, 2019 6:41 pm

landrew wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 4:02 pm
It's a mistake to think power should be traded away for any reason.
Was it though? I'm not sure if that is really true. It would depend on what you mean by "power" I suppose, but Britain in many cases foreign policy wise did not have less clout for being in the EU. It could be argued the opposite, that part of a block confers economy of size benefits politically on the international stage.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon May 20, 2019 6:42 pm

Power should absolutely be traded for potential.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Mon May 20, 2019 7:03 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:42 pm
Power should absolutely be traded for potential.
Many such deals have been regretted.
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 20, 2019 7:40 pm

landrew wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 7:03 pm
ElectricMonk wrote:
Mon May 20, 2019 6:42 pm
Power should absolutely be traded for potential.
Many such deals have been regretted.
What example are you thinking of? A famous one might be the prelude to WW2 Appeasement of Hitler? If so.....could you delimitate the transfers of power that were made and the corresponding consideration? Otherwise, there is no "trading", just the exercise thereof.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Darren Wilshak » Tue May 21, 2019 4:15 pm

This thread is something else. They voted for Brexit and are now trying to decide what sort of a clusterfeck of a Brexit they can deliver. If they even can.

The fact is that 28 member states can get more done together than can one going it alone. That is logical. That is unity. No wonder May smiles, she's out of No 10 in a few scant weeks.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue May 21, 2019 10:41 pm

You've got that a bit wrong, Darren. We sheep voted for Brexit and it's the idiot politicians who have been finding out that they can't have what they told the sheep they could have. Even so, Brexit needn't be a {!#%@} - coming out with no deal would concentrate the minds of our politicians wonderfully.
Other than that, the 28 member states rarely agree on much.
As for getting more done together ... ... ... https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/ ... d2287a647/

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 22, 2019 2:58 am

When was the voting public TOLD that the very real probable result of any Brexit would be a hard border between the Irelands?

Its still irritates the beejebus out of me at restaurants or various affairs to be asked "Would you like some xyz..." and then find out such preference/desire will result in an additional COST.

But........what in politics isn't based on Fraud?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed May 22, 2019 7:26 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 2:58 am
When was the voting public TOLD that the very real probable result of any Brexit would be a hard border between the Irelands? ... ... ...
Watch my lips, bobbo ...
The voting public have never been told that (except by scaremongers) because it simply and straightforwardly isn't true. To re-establish that border would necessarily involve the will and the action of either the UK government or the Republic of Ireland government, both of whom are signatories to the Good Friday Agreement. No EU body is a signatory to that agreement - it has sweet FA to do with them. No Irish or UK government is going to tear down the agreement because to even attempt to do so would be tantamount to political suicide.
Once again, then, and in bold type ... NEITHER THE UK NOR THE REPUBLIC HAS ANY INTENTION OF ESTABLISHING A HARD BORDER ON THE ISLAND OF IRELAND.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed May 22, 2019 8:07 am

true, which makes a 'hard Brexit' impossible - it's just disingenuous to even have it on the table.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed May 22, 2019 9:45 am

It's truly amazing how easy it is to simply make stuff up as we go along. It appears that the phrases 'hard border' and 'soft border' are beyond human imagination. It is a TRULY AMAZINGTM and 'little-known' fact that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic has been soft for 99% of all human transactions since it came into being in 1921. It is not possible to prevent people from walking out of their houses and down to the bottoms of their gardens and then through into their neighbours' gardens so that they could say hello and take afternoon tea together. That, though, is the reality of the border for the great majority of of its length. No amount of tutting and coughing and pointing at maps is going to make a blind bit of difference to any of that.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed May 22, 2019 11:27 pm

Mrs May appears to be very near to going (again). Her Party Chair has resigned and she already knows that her 'new' proposal (it's had the date changed and that's about it) is going nowhere. She could resign as early as tomorrow. To be absolutely fair, she has become completely ineffective as a Brexiteer and as Prime Minister - her party members are baying for blood. When she does go, the no-dealers will party all night and then get on with ripping up what has come to be regarded as her 'surrender document'. Boris is still waiting in the wings and remains the favourite to take the UK out of the EU, probably on a no-deal basis.
On the other hand, given our very recent history everything may be different in about 5 hours when the sun rises.

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Thu May 23, 2019 12:54 am

Would May's leaving change the vote totals on the deal? No-deal Brexit still requires a vote right?

I read the current deal is being attached to promises to Labour if they support her deal i the vote she will support amendments to have a second referendum. What does that mean?

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu May 23, 2019 2:29 am

Poodle wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:45 am
It's truly amazing how easy it is to simply make stuff up as we go along. It appears that the phrases 'hard border' and 'soft border' are beyond human imagination. It is a TRULY AMAZINGTM and 'little-known' fact that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic has been soft for 99% of all human transactions since it came into being in 1921. It is not possible to prevent people from walking out of their houses and down to the bottoms of their gardens and then through into their neighbours' gardens so that they could say hello and take afternoon tea together. That, though, is the reality of the border for the great majority of of its length. No amount of tutting and coughing and pointing at maps is going to make a blind bit of difference to any of that.
Gee Poodle: thats all irrelevant.

but being "tipped off" to your sensitivities/context: I WILL DEFINE HARD BORDER: its what the UK doesn't want... while soft border means what the EU doesn't want? Heh, heh, all ambiguities kept in place, but still we have the gravmen: which has NOTHING TO DO with neighbors exchanging hellos. Any argument containing irrelevancies throws the entire position into doubt..........

As an univolved, more objective, but mostly ignorant, Third Party, YOU poodle continue to be hung up on the Good Friday Agreement "as if" that has somehow been set down in concrete for all times?.........but History does move on regardless of what anyone would druther or wish for. Just Look. The only thing History holds tight too is old arguments that don't work by the losers of whatever given issue is wished against.

Rereading and contextualizing: should I///may I??? add to HARD BORDER: one through which EU residents cannot pass over without review and approval===no permission for illegals to cross over either, should go without saying but hard and soft may disagree? Put a yellow star on all the Irish so that they could pass freely but no one else? Would that provision be hard or soft?

Meeting your argument half way.............I agree the Irelands (sic) may never agree to a hard border between them.....but that only puts the ball in the EU court. What will they do? On the face of it, sounds like expulsion from the EU for violation of border controls???? Ha. ha........so.........Ireland acts to leave the EU while Scotland votes to join.

The fun and games will never stop. Pros and Cons/hard and soft being what they are.

My definition of "The Troubles".......or actually "any" troubles: only conquering half of any island. We see this all over the world. The bobbo rule of real politik: if you can't conquer the whole island........give back the part you did. This will result in less land, but more peace.
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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Thu May 23, 2019 3:12 am

>Gee Poodle: thats all irrelevant.

Nice of you to provide a roadmap for your post.

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu May 23, 2019 3:33 am

More a considered review/conclusion? I do put forth a "roadmap" of sorts for why its irrelevant on several issues, but that is in the following prose.

I do the work.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu May 23, 2019 6:31 am

Bobbo - if you'd done the work, you would be more aware of the problems Ireland (the whole of Ireland) had during the 20th century. If you'd done the work, you'd be more aware of the importance of the Good Friday Agreement, and you'd be more aware of the reasons why the vast majority of the population of the island of Ireland would move Hell and high water to protect the Agreement. Oh - and why at least one senior representative of the US establishment saw fit to make public statements upon the matter.

"My definition of "The Troubles".......or actually "any" troubles: only conquering half of any island ..." you said - thus clearly demonstrating that you haven't done quite the amount of background work you imply, and so demonstrating that you have as much knowledge of the situation as do the members of the EU Commission.
Last edited by Poodle on Thu May 23, 2019 6:47 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu May 23, 2019 6:46 am

MikeN wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 12:54 am
Would May's leaving change the vote totals on the deal? No-deal Brexit still requires a vote right?

I read the current deal is being attached to promises to Labour if they support her deal i the vote she will support amendments to have a second referendum. What does that mean?
Any possible deal with Labour has flown out of the window in the past couple of days - no common ground could be established (which is not even the teeniest of surprises). May is leaving because she has failed utterly to deliver her promises - if anything, the anti-EU attitude of Parliament will harden when she's gone (ie very soon). And no - I, too, could not understand how a referendum could have fitted into that situation.
No-deal is the default position, so no vote is needed (it's a mistake a lot of Remainers make - they think that the default is to stay in). But all the necessary legislation has already been passed and the UK is now serving out its notice to quit.
And now I'm off to the polling station just a few yards up the road to put my bit of the final nail into the EU coffin by way of the election of members of the EU Parliament - a huge cost on the public purse which could easily have been avoided, had it not been for Mrs May's antics. And all the EU have guaranteed by their insistence is the return of Nigel Farage, this time with massively increased support, to Brussels.