Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by scrmbldggs » Tue May 14, 2019 4:35 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:05 am
This has been also a typical Trump negotiation conducted as though China were a minor supplier for a modest building project.
I hear there are good payers on both sides...on both sides...
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Tue May 14, 2019 5:17 pm

Trump tweeting about his second term must seem cute to Xi who will never again have to stand for election.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by MikeN » Tue May 14, 2019 6:31 pm

>China were a minor supplier for a modest building project.

China's economy is built on exports while importing lots of raw materials and food. If the US market is denied them it hurts them a lot.
This is the leverage being used to get China to drop its tariffs and go after IP theft.

StatMech, that data you link to, doesn't it show a 4% increase? It wouldn't surprise me if that is Trump's source for his claim.

>communicated to the country about using tariffs and other means to bring certain industries back to the US,
He's been talking about it for 30 years. The wall was a means to an end. This is Trump's primary issue.
Michael Moore explained that this is why he will win the election:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 7:11 pm

He should go to a home:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Tue May 14, 2019 7:13 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:11 pm
He should go to a home:

Oy....

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Tue May 14, 2019 7:20 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:11 pm
He should go to a home:

:lol:

Boy, that Biden’s a kidder....
Wait, is he serious?
Um, is his memory that bad? Does he not remember how Republicans acted during Obama’s presidency?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 7:33 pm

The data I linked to is the CPI, not tariff rates. No one knows for sure what Trump meant in that baffling 21/4 tweet; I read that the White House refused comment when asked about the tweet. Likewise, the Wall has nothing to do with tariffs and is not a trade policy.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Tue May 14, 2019 7:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by scrmbldggs » Tue May 14, 2019 7:35 pm

Maybe Biden isn't thinking of what's currently defiling Congress?
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Tue May 14, 2019 7:37 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:35 pm
Maybe Biden isn't thinking of what's currently defiling Congress?
Apparently he thinks he has some magical ability to get Republicans to work with him. If the Republicans keep the Senate majority it’s not gonna happen.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 7:39 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:35 pm
Maybe Biden isn't thinking of what's currently defiling Congress?
Not sure what you mean but the Republicans in Congress were a leading indicator of Trumpism. I would guess that Biden has a naive and somewhat romantic faith in his own ability, along with a sanitized view of the Obama years, as well as holding a belief in some deceptive myth of American consensus and exceptionalism.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 7:48 pm

Btw Barack Obama on the 2012 election:
I believe that if we’re successful in this election, when we’re successful in this election, that the fever may break [McConnell-GOP obstructionism], because there’s a tradition in the Republican Party of more common sense than that.
Uh . . .

These guys obviously believe that there's a constituency for unicorns.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Tue May 14, 2019 7:52 pm

Apparently this constituency lives in Unicornville.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by scrmbldggs » Tue May 14, 2019 8:20 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:39 pm
scrmbldggs wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:35 pm
Maybe Biden isn't thinking of what's currently defiling Congress?
Not sure what you mean but the Republicans in Congress were a leading indicator of Trumpism. I would guess that Biden has a naive and somewhat romantic faith in his own ability, along with a sanitized view of the Obama years, as well as holding a belief in some deceptive myth of American consensus and exceptionalism.
> Not sure what you mean...

Those who aren't of the Turtle and/or Tea Party kind. Just regular "conservatives" and not complete Reptilians (AKA "independents"these days).
Last edited by scrmbldggs on Tue May 14, 2019 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 8:37 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 8:20 pm
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:39 pm
scrmbldggs wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:35 pm
Maybe Biden isn't thinking of what's currently defiling Congress?
Not sure what you mean but the Republicans in Congress were a leading indicator of Trumpism. I would guess that Biden has a naive and somewhat romantic faith in his own ability, along with a sanitized view of the Obama years, as well as holding a belief in some deceptive myth of American consensus and exceptionalism.
> Not sure what you mean...

Those who aren't of the Turtle and/or Tea Party kind. Just regular "conservatives" and not complete Reptilians.
Uh, there are almost none left, and they've been scant for a long time. From the estimable Philip Bump:
After Obama was inaugurated in 2009, Republican leaders in Washington made an explicit effort to block his agenda, with then-House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) promising that his party would “do everything — and I mean everything we can do — to kill it, stop it, slow it down, whatever we can.” Senate Majority Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) famously announced that the “single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” . . .

Although McConnell didn’t make Obama a one-term president, he was successful at stymieing Democratic legislation during his presidency. McConnell allowed a government shutdown in 2013 in an effort to defund Obama’s Affordable Care Act and blocked numerous judicial appointments, including Obama’s last Supreme Court nominee. McConnell effectively held the seat open until after the 2016 election, allowing Trump to appoint his first justice right after taking office and to fill 112 other federal bench seats. . . .

In late 2017, Monmouth University asked respondents whether they thought Trump was sufficiently willing to work with Democrats. Although 46 percent said he wasn’t willing enough to reach out to the opposition, only 14 percent of Republicans shared that view. In January, an NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll asked a similar question. Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they thought Trump was doing too little to work with Democrats, but only a quarter of Republicans agreed. Two-thirds said he was doing the right amount — or even working with Democrats too much.
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by scrmbldggs » Tue May 14, 2019 8:39 pm

Oops, there was a late edit... :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 9:14 pm

LOL but there really aren't many of those either. Polling suggests that many independents are highly partisan. (Maybe like me. LOL I identify as independent - but I cannot conceive of voting Republican. e.g., https://www.businessinsider.com/indepen ... ce-2018-10)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 10:05 pm

The Senate Intelligence Committee, according to The Trump York Times, will withdraw its subpoena of Don Jr as they've made a deal with him for him, according to Maggie Haberman, for a "limited appearance, between 2-4 hours, in mid-June." Twitter is not impressed:

"Hmmm....I wonder what kind of deals we regular people would get? Probably just jail."
"A deal based on what? Junior is not a federal officeholder and has no plausible defense against a valid subpoena. Let him take the 5th if he wants to evade testifying."
"Committee members should give their time to Kamala. In 2-4 hours, she’ll have him crying and begging for reduced jail time"
"That's not a 'deal.' That's cowardly senators refusing to exercise their power as a co-equal branch of government."
"Mid June?How long does it take to remember the line'I plead the Fifth'"
"Asskissers"
"And the nyt will report the hearing as Don jr exonerated. Completely innocent"
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue May 14, 2019 10:32 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 9:14 pm
LOL but there really aren't many of those either. Polling suggests that many independents are highly partisan. (Maybe like me. LOL I identify as independent - but I cannot conceive of voting Republican. e.g., https://www.businessinsider.com/indepen ... ce-2018-10)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Tue May 14, 2019 10:42 pm

The Republicans give up.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/ ... ns-1319024
Still, many Republicans are once again worried about economic headwinds, and the stock market is looking shaky. Rural America, where Trump is popular, could be headed for ruin.
Good. {!#%@}’em, you get what you vote for. And no “Socialism” to bail you out, I wouldn’t want them to go against their principles.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 14, 2019 11:35 pm

Socialism for his farmers, a tax hike for the rest of us doofuses: https://slate.com/business/2019/05/trum ... -hike.html
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by MikeN » Wed May 15, 2019 12:16 am

Don Jr had previously made a deal for one appearance of unlimited length, and there would be no further appearances. They reneged by asking him to appear again.

This is similar to what got Tom Brady punished. The Patriots were unwilling to make their assistants appear again for the investigators after several prior appearances. Turns out the investigators had incriminating evidence at the time but never noticed it.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by TJrandom » Wed May 15, 2019 12:24 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 10:05 pm
The Senate Intelligence Committee, according to The Trump York Times, will withdraw its subpoena of Don Jr as they've made a deal with him for him, according to Maggie Haberman, for a "limited appearance, between 2-4 hours, in mid-June." Twitter is not impressed:

"Hmmm....I wonder what kind of deals we regular people would get? Probably just jail."
"A deal based on what? Junior is not a federal officeholder and has no plausible defense against a valid subpoena. Let him take the 5th if he wants to evade testifying."
"Committee members should give their time to Kamala. In 2-4 hours, she’ll have him crying and begging for reduced jail time"
"That's not a 'deal.' That's cowardly senators refusing to exercise their power as a co-equal branch of government."
"Mid June?How long does it take to remember the line'I plead the Fifth'"
"Asskissers"
"And the nyt will report the hearing as Don jr exonerated. Completely innocent"
When he shows up... if he shows up…, they should immediately issue a subpoena for him to stay on for unlimited questioning, and arrest his sorry ass if he tries to leave. Where was that broom closet? :roll:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by MikeN » Wed May 15, 2019 12:43 am

StatMech, CPI is a price level. The chart appears to be saying a 4% increase in price level for categories hit by Trump tariffs.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Pyrrho » Wed May 15, 2019 12:58 am

https://www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-tariffs ... ican-steel
Yet nearly a year after Trump slapped tariffs on imported steel, the U.S. steel industry is not thriving. It is reeling. Steel prices have fallen back to pre-tariff levels. Employment is stagnant. The clearest sign that tariffs are not working, however, is the stock market.

If the president’s policies were working as planned, the steel industry should outperform other sectors. Yet as the graphic above shows, since Trump announced steel tariffs on March 1, 2018, steel-producer stock prices have plummeted 22 percent—while the S&P 500 index has fallen only three percent.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed May 15, 2019 1:21 am

Pyrrho wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 12:58 am
https://www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-tariffs ... ican-steel
Yet nearly a year after Trump slapped tariffs on imported steel, the U.S. steel industry is not thriving. It is reeling. Steel prices have fallen back to pre-tariff levels. Employment is stagnant. The clearest sign that tariffs are not working, however, is the stock market.

If the president’s policies were working as planned, the steel industry should outperform other sectors. Yet as the graphic above shows, since Trump announced steel tariffs on March 1, 2018, steel-producer stock prices have plummeted 22 percent—while the S&P 500 index has fallen only three percent.
Between that and Ole King Coal he doin' a bang up job :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 15, 2019 3:12 am

Everything is "multi-factorial." Any good ideas/data as to WHY the steel sector is not performing better? Ex post facto analysis can sometimes give you a lucky start........but it doesn't even begin to explain anything.

eg: what indicates the steel sector would not be WORSE.....except for the Tariffs?

As a general point...my own unqualified understanding is that "new" tariffs are for the purpose of supporting industries that need help.....eg faultering or newly formed or to be formed. The hoped for effect of any tariff then is at least 5 years in the future under the best of circumstances.

but........I studied poetry, not economics. Somebody disagree, dumb it down, and explain?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed May 15, 2019 5:21 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 10:05 pm
The Senate Intelligence Committee, according to The Trump York Times, will withdraw its subpoena of Don Jr as they've made a deal with him for him, according to Maggie Haberman, for a "limited appearance, between 2-4 hours, in mid-June." Twitter is not impressed:

"Hmmm....I wonder what kind of deals we regular people would get? Probably just jail."
"A deal based on what? Junior is not a federal officeholder and has no plausible defense against a valid subpoena. Let him take the 5th if he wants to evade testifying."
"Committee members should give their time to Kamala. In 2-4 hours, she’ll have him crying and begging for reduced jail time"
"That's not a 'deal.' That's cowardly senators refusing to exercise their power as a co-equal branch of government."
"Mid June?How long does it take to remember the line'I plead the Fifth'"
"Asskissers"
"And the nyt will report the hearing as Don jr exonerated. Completely innocent"
It's probably even worse than it looks. If his lawyer(s) informed the Committee (as with Mueller) that he will take the 5th, Burr* would want to save him from the embarrassment. And dear daddy from (ab)using his pardoning powers.


* The close but "unknown to Rump" campaign and ever since advisor...
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed May 15, 2019 6:53 am

Burr attempted to make up for his inexcusable leak early in the investigation, but is just putting his jelly spine on full display.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 9:21 am

The CPI graph I posted measures "prices across nine tariff-impacted categories," not what US consumers pay on Chinese imports.

The graph reflects overall prices for a type of goods (in "industries"), not only the tariffed goods in those categories. As Goldman Sachs noted, the CPI in these categories also show small price increases for non-tariffed goods as companies have also increased prices "opportunistically" for non-tariffed goods in these industries: "The effects of the tariffs have spilled over noticeably to the prices charged by US producers competing with tariff-affected goods."

The graph doesn't show how much of the tariff importers eat and how much they pass along as a price increase.

Also, it was last Friday that Trump raised the tariffs on $200bn of goods imported from China from 10% to 25%, so the price impact of that increase is not reflected in the Goldman Sachs data, which shows a CPI increase in affected categories over many months (as GS explained, "“New evidence on the effects of the 2018 tariff rounds from two detailed academic studies points to larger effects on US consumer prices than we had previously estimated"). You may have noticed that the GS graph shows the CPI beginning to increase in 2018 for goods in these industries, not when Trump recently raised the tariff.

And none of this has anything to do with China paying 21 pts, as Trump claims.

Basically, so far the tariffs are a fairly sizable tax increase on American importers and consumers, with GS concluding that "the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, with no clear reduction in the prices charged by Chinese exporters." Trump has been lying about this. Other analysts have observed that the goods hit with tariffs are not luxury items but will affect average and lower income households most - which is a neat trick, big tax cut for the wealthy and a tax hike for the "forgotten people."

All this is not, as some say, economic Armageddon (rather the tariffs should be a small net drag on the economy overall - "possibly a hit to GDP as large as 0.4%," according to the GS report), but the tariffs are what Trump says they are not - that is, a tax on American companies and consumers - and they are not having the impact Trump claims. His recommendation "Buy American" to avoid the hit is nonsense, btw, showing his utter ignorance about the global economy.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by TJrandom » Wed May 15, 2019 9:46 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:21 am
... so far the tariffs are a fairly sizable tax increase on American importers and consumers, with GS concluding that "the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, ...
But but but... didn't they get a massive tax cut to make up for it? :roll: :twisted:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 9:58 am

I think that I may have a contrarian viewpoint on the Biden-Ukraine brouhaha, but at least my viewpoint is consistent. (Disclaimer: my background as an exec in a fairly large corporation, who often dealt with such matters, may have made me a bit doctrinaire about them . . . )

First, during the '16 campaign the NY Times played IMO a "lean Trump" role in their reporting on "scandals." Second, John Solomon has shown himself a dishonest partisan hack - shame on The Hill for providing Trump & Co a soapbox.

But . . . Hunter Biden's Burisma role (taking a job with the Ukrainian energy company when his father was on point for Obama administration policy in Ukraine) was not only the appearance of a conflict of interest, it was an outright conflict of interest. Hunter Biden's role has the redolent odor of cashing in, and, with his poppa now running for president, this cashing in gives the Solomon-Trump-Times crowd an opportunity to exaggerate and lie about Ukraine, focusing on the Bidens, just as they did with Clinton in '16. Better, it reminds a large group of voters of the '16 claims and gives them a battle cry and it puts Biden on the defensive, supposedly as part of the same Clintonian-Obamaian corruption.

The Joe Biden aspect of this - already tarted up and phonied best as I can tell - will take its place as "front page" news - the NY Times will be sure to promote a string of fake exposés out of all proportion - as the '20 version of "but her emails," Benghazi, her brain damage and incapacitating illness, and the Foundation.

OTOH, and here is where I criticize Biden and the Dems, all this is what conflicts of interest and appearances of conflict of interest open you up to: you play into false narratives, especially with opponents as shameless and demagogic as Trump and today's GOP.

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... d-ukraine/
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed May 15, 2019 10:24 am

...and so we get phony tax payer-funded investigations to support (false?) claims about Democratic donor-funded oppo research? Or some such thing... :roll:


(And, imho, Giuliani had no intentions of actually going on any trip. Announcing the whole idea was simply a preparation of ground and the planting of seeds for "righteous outrage" and demands of an investigation...)
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed May 15, 2019 10:27 am

In other newz, there are Republicans, and then there are Republicans.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 10:30 am

TJrandom wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:46 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:21 am
... so far the tariffs are a fairly sizable tax increase on American importers and consumers, with GS concluding that "the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, ...
But but but... didn't they get a massive tax cut to make up for it? :roll: :twisted:
Funny thing, I read one estimate that the China tariffs impact to households will be about $775/year, mostly on households with incomes in the middle range . . . the Tax Policy Center estimates the households with incomes in the middle range will see a tax reduction from the Trump cut of about $900/year. Whoopsie.
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Re: Trump will whine!

Post by TJrandom » Wed May 15, 2019 10:43 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 10:27 am
In other newz, there are Republicans, and then there are Republicans.
I've said it before - one really needs to watch what one watches... lest one begins to believe what he hears. When I travelled in the US Midwest, I was appalled that TVs in the airports only played Fox. It was like I was walking thru enemy territory with a big signboard.

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scrmbldggs
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed May 15, 2019 10:47 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 10:30 am
TJrandom wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:46 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:21 am
... so far the tariffs are a fairly sizable tax increase on American importers and consumers, with GS concluding that "the costs of US tariffs have fallen entirely on US businesses and households, ...
But but but... didn't they get a massive tax cut to make up for it? :roll: :twisted:
Funny thing, I read one estimate that the China tariffs impact to households will be about $775/year, mostly on households with incomes in the middle range . . . the Tax Policy Center estimates the households with incomes in the middle range will see a tax reduction from the Trump cut of about $900/year. Whoopsie.
No real changes are good changes - keep 'em stressed-out and preoccupied...
.
Lard, save me from your followers.

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Statistical Mechanic
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 11:28 am

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Statistical Mechanic
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 12:56 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:21 am
. . . but the tariffs are what Trump says they are not - that is, a tax on American companies and consumers. . . .
and now Bloatus has told off Kudlow for making grudging, partial admission on TV that Trump is full of {!#%@} on this topic: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trum ... na-tariffs
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 2:26 pm

News story this morning that Trump administration has ordered all non-essential US personnel to leave Iraq: I'm in a bit of a worry about the war signals we've been hearing from the "peace" president & his team.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed May 15, 2019 2:34 pm

Yup.
Trump got into hot water for suggesting Americans should leave South Korea.

I hope this remains grandstanding, because the US won't have any Western allies if it attacks Iran. Even the UK won't help I would wager.