100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

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100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:24 pm

Hey!==a nice "firm" prediction we all should be alive to see? I was gonna let it go as just one more dire prediction, but its been reaffirmed 3 times on tv in the last 24 hours. Right now....Jerry Brown leading a Climate Conference showing the world the USA is not going to follow Trumps lead.

What got me really going was an interview with a UN scientist who commented that the last time the co2 ppm got to 400, the North Pole had no ice. When it got to 750 ppm, there was no ice at the South Pole. ………..and...……..sea level rose 100 Meters. He noted the ppm is over 400 NOW....so absent getting back below 400 means the Pole is going to melt....just as it is. Then he said it is predicted ppm by 2100 would be 1000....well above the 750 and I had not heard that high figure before, so I googled the UN Scientist's (never caught his name....I think it was on RT or Russian TV) figure for credibility and could not find any reference above about 800 ppm for the end of this Century...so I kinda wrote the guy off. Then.....a show on shrinking ice in Greenland noted that while the Whole Earth average was predicted to go up to a 6 or 7 degree rise....the temps were rising faster at the North Pole than anywhere else on earth and would most likely hit 8-9 or even 10 degrees increase. Yep...so many innocent ways to miscommunicate about AGW.

Contra: ((but not really)) just saw another show on making hydrocarbon fuel out of atmospheric co2. There is a solution right there: stop digging up fossil fuel with all the pollution that causes ((no report yet on the deluge of toxic coal ash sludge spread all over the Carolinas from Tropical Storm Florence....will it get permanently not reported?)) and make relatively clean and neutral recycled co2. The tech has been proven and only needs to be scaled up. About 10,000 such chemical plants would do it. Said fuel could be burned...but also will have to be sequested to get the ppm down. The plans to raise the albedo of Earth are not favored by me. Better to spend any of that money on the captured co2 technology BECAUSE....of all the other problems increased co2 causes. Making the earth cooler so fossil fuel can still be burned is money not spent the best way.

Heh, heh, …..my gut tells me "we are still too late" with the VERY BEST CASE with massive funding of redemial action...Millions/Billions are still going to unnecessarily die. Its how the curves go...……………

Short one page read.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/20 ... ge-by-2030
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:07 pm

Bobbo

You suggest that air temperature at the poles will warm 10 Celsius. You also suggest 100 meter sea level rise. For a sea level rise of even 80 meters, it requires all the ice on planet Earth to melt.
But 10 Celsius would not do it. As I pointed out to you before, much of Antarctica has an average temperature of minus 50, and it has ice sheets up to four kilometers thick. Even if the air temperature over Antarctica rose till it was positive, those ice sheets would take millennia to melt.

Explain how a 10 Celsius rise will melt them all.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:20 am

Lance: you really do need to read closer. "I" said nothing but am only reporting what the UN climate Scientist said and that was after saying I thought his numbers were too extreme.....until I googled and saw that they were not. I DID NOT SAY: "the poles"....I said the North Pole or Greenland....and only that it "could" go as high as 10 Degrees and I don't know if that is F or C.

The 100 meter rise when ALL the ice melts was given by the UN expert. If thats wrong, blame him.

The UN expert said it would only take 750 ppm co2. I think that creates an "average" temp raise of 7 or 8 with 10 way over the top? I assume you are thinking that all the ice melts when we reach 10 Degrees whatever? But just as we have passed 400ppm and we still have ice at the North Pole...…...there is a lag time. Decades if not centuries: I don't know.

There is a co2 ppm that creates heat that is retained in the air but mostly in the water. The amount of heat in the air is minimum compared to the heat in the water. There is a value of ppm and of average air temp and of average water temp that in some time range will melt all the ice on Earth...…...and we are well on our way to reaching those levels on our present course. It was the UN expert that said it most likely would be by 2100 that the levels would be reached...with whatever lag time is required to melt all the ice.

"IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...………" ////and so far: they are only worse. Time for some of that Miracle Science to step in and save the day. But silly hoomans remain just as silly.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:41 am

Feb 18, 2015 · As National Geographic showed us in 2013, sea levels would rise by 216 feet if all the land ice on the planet were to melt. This would dramatically reshape the continents and drown many of the ...
Author: Science Insider ((216 feet = 66 meters. Hate it when experts are wrong about such objective facts....thats why I checked him to begin with))



From https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace ... 83e530c495 I don't like using Forbes for my science....but I'm too sleepy to find the same thing elsewhere. Besides, the colors are nice.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:10 am

There is no argument about what would happen if all the ice melted.

What I am saying is that it is not going to happen. It would take a rise in air temperature over central Antarctica of more than 50 celsius, and some thousands of years. Not seriously likely.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:09 pm

Lance: please confirm....you are saying UN Scientist is wrong when he says that there was NO ICE on Earth when the co2 ppm was 750 (he might have said 800 with the POINT being that we could be at 1000ppm if trends continue) is wrong? I don't know...my gut tells me he is right AND AGAIN I think you are totally not incorporating the time lag that would still have to take place thereafter.

TIME LAG: even if we stopped adding co2 ENTIRELY right now...….it looks like the North Pole will still lose all its ice because the ppm is over 400. We have to get back to...…….I assume 350 ppm as that is the original Hanson number and the name of his website in that recognition.

So...we blew through 350....and now 400 on our way to "surely" 600 by the end of the Century. What is going to stop us from hitting the South Pole Melting 800 or 1000ppm?

Its irritating for me to try to track down confirming authoritative estimates. I get close then the analysis switches from ppm to total temp rise or some delta change.....hard to find the straight lines. Thats why I posted the OP....its specific and soon enough to check. The UN Scientist was right that 10 C or F (probably C as he is from the UN) rise at the North Pole could be a worst case estimate.===>leading to: do you have any link to the notion that the ice can't melt at the South Pole? BETTER YET: what average or SP particular climate stats would lead to such melting? It just occurs to me that when the sea level rises 10 feet or 30 feet....it won't be just the air heating up the land ice in SP....its one of those cascading events we don't have a handle on predicting. I am also reminded that its extremes or summer heating, or winter heating in isolation that can lead to ice loss? Weather patterns change? all that has to happen is for the snow fall to not replenish whatever melts each summer. You know: lots of variable and we don't know enough to model it to the detail so many deniers and optimists demand. ((((((HEY!!!!--I just fell on a new term. Whats the difference between a Climate Change Denier and a Climate Change Optimist?? Note: they arrive at the same outcome...……………………………))))))))

I do look forward to your response.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:22 pm

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:40 pm

Yep....one in a thousand year weather events happening every 5 years. "What Happened?"

although to be fair....Lance does not reject AGW, he just thinks we can adapt to it with minimum upset. probably thinks some kind of carburetor cleaner will start that car right up. Its Science don't ya know?
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:21 pm

Bobbo

If sea levels rise about 10 meters, most of Antarctica will still be comfortable well above water level, and most of those incredibly thick ice fields will still be sitting there at close to minus 50 Celsius.

Global warming is not magic. Ice does not melt because someone wave a Harry Potter magic wand. It takes major temperature rise.

Certainly there have been times in the past (the geological past, many millions of years ago) when there was no ice in Antarctica. Ever hear of continental drift ?

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:47 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Global warming is not magic. Ice does not melt because someone wave a Harry Potter magic wand. It takes major temperature rise.
Really?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 092650.htm
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:49 pm

Gawdzilla

Your reference deals with sea ice. That can certainly melt when ocean temperatures rise. But that has no impact on sea level. But the vast bulk of ice in Antarctica is normally on land, but is sufficiently inland to mean that a sea level rise of several meters will not affect it.

The simple fact is that no global warming projected for at least centuries will melt more than a tiny fraction of the ice in Antarctica.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:29 am

Lance: you do follow the pattern of every denier on any subject on this forum. You rarely answer direct questions and instead just repeat your mantra.

Make you very boring.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:07 am

No Bobbo. What you mean is that I rarely answer direct questions in the way you want me to answer them. But I do answer direct questions. I do that using good data, and good science. Sadly, your beliefs are so often based on your emotional attitude instead. Your pessimistic approach to the future is not based on data. It is based on emotion. When I fail to follow your pessimism, you accuse me of failing to answer.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:39 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Lance: please confirm....you are saying UN Scientist is wrong when he says that there was NO ICE on Earth when the co2 ppm was 750 (he might have said 800 with the POINT being that we could be at 1000ppm if trends continue) is wrong?
Your response does not answer this question that was put directly to you. What you post answers a different question.

Can you see the difference, or do you only have eyes for yourself?
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:23 am

I already answered that question, though in a slightly subtle way, when I asked you if you had heard of continental drift. Perhaps I need to present my answers in a way that even simple people even understand. So here we go.

Antarctica has not always been where it is now. Continental drift has moved it South, into the realm of ice and snow. Previously, as part of Gondwanaland, 180 million years ago, it occupied roughly the zone currently occupied by Australia. The drift South was very slow. It has only been a frozen desert for about 15 million years. No ice before then.

Does this make it clear ?

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:44 pm

Lance: don't confuse being non responsive and making stuff up with being subtle. Less than simple people see right through it.

AGAIN===THIRD TIME:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Lance: please confirm....you are saying UN Scientist is wrong when he says that there was NO ICE on Earth when the co2 ppm was 750 (he might have said 800 with the POINT being that we could be at 1000ppm if trends continue) is wrong? )
AGAIN===second time: Do you have any link to authority for just saying the continential drift answers the no ice at 800 ppm co2 concetration of the past? aka: FOURTH TIME: that the UN scientist stating such as a fact is wrong? Your response is "logical" and no doubt plays a role but has that factoid/model actually been evaluated to a definite conclusion? My gut says no and you are just refusing to examine a new idea..........as always.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:15 pm

Bobbo

Stop being obtuse. Antarctica has been covered with ice and snow ONLY the last 15 million years. That is due to continental drift. Not greenhouse gases. Duh !

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:29 pm

Totally off point. Disconnected. Floundering.

FIFTH TIME:...…………...ETC.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:11 pm

Not off the point.
Millions of years ago, Antarctica was ice free. Why ? Because it was not as far south.

Simple. Should be simple enough even for Bobbo.

I have no doubt that the U.N. scientist who said Antarctica was ice free when CO2 was higher was quite correct. It is just that the high CO2 was not the main reason. Obviously, high CO2 would contribute to warmer conditions, but the main reason for the chilling was continental drift southwards. Throughout geological time, except for a tiny fraction, Antarctica was ice free.

Incidentally, Antarctica is 98% covered with deep ice with an average thickness of 1.6 kilometers, and it is the continent with the highest altitude*, meaning that rising sea levels have little effect, except right next to the coast. The ice next to the coast may melt and create global sea level rises of one to two meters over the next several centuries, if the world is unlucky. But no more, at least for a thousand years or more. The vast bulk of the ice in Antarctica is not going to melt any time soon. Not for thousands of years, even if we send Earth into a warming with Venus as a model. Much more likely is that the ice further from the coast will remain unmelted until millions of years from now, when continental drift reverses the continent's position.

So, Bobbo, try to step outside that pessimistic emotional cocoon you have woven around yourself. The ice in Antarctica is not going to melt any time soon and flood the world.

* The bulk of the continent is above 1,000 meters. The South Pole, which is relatively low, is high enough that some people going there suffer altitude sickness.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:31 am

THIRD TIME: I've already agreed your argument is logical: BUT WHAT IS YOUR SOURCE FOR THE ACTUAL FACT OF THE MATTER? Of course all the land of the earth being clustered near the equator would make sense there would be no ice on land....but counter that....that oceans would also be more homogenous as also being one large mass without the continents to break up the heat concentrations. aka: lots of other factors in play.

From your continual failure to post any links, I assume you are just "making an argument" rather than pointing out a consequential fact.

Are you going to go for a Fourth Time, or actually back up what you say?
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:32 pm

There are numerous references to this, and I do not need to hold Bobbos hand.

One interesting point, though. Antarctica has been ice covered for 15 million years, but much of the continent had already reached southern latitudes well before that. There were even forests in latitudes lower than South America. It appears that the process of icing over was very slow, taking millions of years. That makes sense bearing in mind that Antarctica is desert, with only a tiny level of precipitation, and yet the ice shelves are kilometers thick. It took a long time.

This suggest to me that the reverse will also take a very long time. Seriously unlikely that Bobbos pessimism could prove correct, leading to massive sea level rise any time soon.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:05 pm

Ok, I'll play along. You see Lance, back when Pangaea was on the Equator, its true the land was not at the poles and that no snow accumulated on the land......but....given the co2 ppm in excess of 800, a careful study/inventory of the phytoplankton of the time shows that Ocean temps were such that ice could not form at the poles even if there was land there to fall on.

See how that works? No proof...……..all I have to do is flap my lips. I've learned from the best.

………………..…...or the worst depending on if you want argument, or facts, to contend with.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:05 am

Bobbo

All that is fine and well.
But you are still (or have been) trying to imply that all the ice in Antarctica might melt and flood the planet. Just not true.

In your first post, in this thread, you said Millions/Billions will unnecessarily die. Such statements are crap.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:06 pm

Lance, as always you are freebasing in your own bubble. THIRD TIME: all I did was report what the UN scientist said and when you demurred, I asked you for your sources.

Still...…..…..a vacuum on rival with empty space.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:30 pm

Wiki has a nice article on Antarctica which covers most of what I have said.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by robinson » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:08 pm

The problem with eternally arguing with idiots, is after enough time, people may not be able to tell who the idiot is
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:25 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Wiki has a nice article on Antarctica which covers most of what I have said.
You mean here: By the end of the Cretaceous, about 66 Ma, Antarctica (then connected to Australia) still had a subtropical climate and flora, complete with a marsupial fauna.[57]

or here: Antarctica is the coldest of Earth's continents. It used to be ice-free until about 34 million years ago, when it became covered with ice.[64] (((Related for different issue: "Temperatures reach a minimum of between −80 °C (−112 °F) and −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F) in the interior in winter and reach a maximum of between 5 °C (41 °F) and 15 °C (59 °F) near the coast in summer.")))

or here: A study published in Nature Geoscience in 2013 (online in December 2012) identified central West Antarctica as one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth.

Well....thats enough. No info at all regarding co2 concentrations. I'll bet you don't even remember that is the issue? And my quick read: its not the "mere" position of Antarctica at the South Pole that put ice on it but rather the positions of the other continents that stopped the general heat ciculations of the oceans.

Yep Lance: NOTHING in the link supports your argument....because the argument IS NOT TOUCHED ON.

……….but I'll bet you don't even understand that.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:26 pm

robinson wrote:The problem with eternally arguing with idiots, is after enough time, people may not be able to tell who the idiot is
Whereas, all you have to do is post without opposition and prove the same thing. Amusing.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:35 pm

Bobbo still has not cottoned on to the simple fact that higher CO2 was NOT the reason Antarctica was once ice free.

If you go back to the Cretaceous, there was more CO2 and the whole world was warmer. That is classic global warming theory in operation. But Antarctica was well North of its current position, and that is the basic reason it was ice free back then. Had it been in the current latitude, it would have been ice covered. Actually, even somewhat further north, most would have been ice or snow covered since so much of Antarctica is above 2,000 meters in height. Only the minimal lowland areas would have been ice free and forest covered.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by KevinLevites » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:24 am

I think 100 million can die from climate change, but neccesarily rising water levels.

Climate change means problems with agriculture, problems with pests spreading tropical diseases, epidemics, contamination of vast amounts of water with microbial toxins (like red tide), and so on.

The water depth and ice sheets are not the only issues with global warming.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by KevinLevites » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:39 am

I would like to point out an ironic form of poetic justice here.

I live in South Florida, and--in celebration of my birthday--my girlfriend took me on a roadtrip to a quiant family motel on beautiful Sannibel Island on the west coast of Florida, as she knows how much I love scuba diving, underwater photography, and snorkeling.

It was bad.

The red tide had created a huge layer of rotting dead fish, dolphins, manatees, and loggerhead turtles as far as the eye can see.

Also, the organic toxins in the red tide get areosolized by the surf, so humans experience symptoms as far as a mile inland.

The sensation is a burning in the eyes, nose, and throat...coupled with respiratory symptoms, swollen lymph nodes, a metallic taste in the mouth, and so on. I'm going first-hand with this.

All of this is--in part--from global warming.

Here's the irony: Not one person who complained or had their businesses suffer ever once questioned their role in this mess when they use cars for short trips, and when they vote against environmental reform out of greed.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:35 am

Kevin

Florida will certainly suffer from global warming, because so much of it is low lying and will flood. But that will not kill anyone. Just drive them to move to higher ground.

Red tides may or may not be related to global warming, but the world has had red tides back as far as records show. I would suspect that they are more likely to be related to higher nutrient pollution of the ocean than warming.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by KevinLevites » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:03 am

Lance

I think the higher nurient level in the water does cause worse red tide...but I believe that the water holds more nutrients because it's warmer.

You can, for example, dissolve more sugar in boiling water than you can in ice water.

Also, warm water holds less disolved oxygen, so aerobic organisms that might keep red tide in check are handicapped.

I may be wrong, but I believe this.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by psychiatry is a scam » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:20 am

55 million die each year . 131 million born

so an extra 100 million dead over the next 12 years ? aint gonna help.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:31 am

P.I.A.S.

Do not let Bobbos innate pessimism sway you. There is very little chance of an extra 100 million deaths by 2030 due to global warming.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by ElectricMonk » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:05 am

Since the War in Syria is a direct result of Global Warming, I wouldn't be so sure that the death toll won't reach tens of millions by 2030.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:44 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Bobbo still has not cottoned on to the simple fact that higher CO2 was NOT the reason Antarctica was once ice free.

If you go back to the Cretaceous, there was more CO2 and the whole world was warmer. That is classic global warming theory in operation. But Antarctica was well North of its current position, and that is the basic reason it was ice free back then. Had it been in the current latitude, it would have been ice covered. Actually, even somewhat further north, most would have been ice or snow covered since so much of Antarctica is above 2,000 meters in height. Only the minimal lowland areas would have been ice free and forest covered.
Lance: you could be right. You haven't linked to anything that states that conclusion, only facts that may be consistent with it....or against it depending on what dots, and other dots, need to be connected to reach that conclusion. I DON'T KNOW, or even have an opinion other than at some level of ppm: all the ice will melt. and we are doing NOTHING right now to decrease the acceleration of ppm loading and ice melt. I only reported what the UN Scientist said. Do you think he is wrong headed as well? ………………...could be, I agree, ((Amusing consideration: ignorant or on purpose?)). Its all part of the too many issues that have to be juggled at the same time, and then there is always that Milankovich Cycle (sp?) and 5-6 other cycles that play into the equation as well.
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:57 pm

I am not saying the UN scientist was wrong. Just misinterpreted.

But Bobbo, there is not a single climate scientist anywhere who predicts that all the ice in Antarctica will melt any time soon. And the reason is clear, and I have shown the reason.

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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:36 am

I've been unresponsive having to deal with everything I own being broken. I feel like "running away" and starting over somewhere else with everything new. I could do it. Pros and Cons.

Lance: why can't you identify the subject of a thread and address it rather than wonder off on your own pre canned responses?

while the UN Scientist didn't say that as direct as you put it, he did strongly imply it in an "if-then" supposition.

The question I put on the table, recognized or not really is: at what co2 ppm would all the ice in the world melt? Until you answer that, you have no grounded position, just argument and assumptions.

What have you got data man?
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Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:52 am

Sorry about your troubles, Bobbo. Hope things turn up for the better soon.

On all the ice melting.
Bearing in mind that much of Antarctica has an average temperature of 50 below, and ice sheets of kilometers thick, at an altitude of above 2000 meters, it would take something very drastic. I am not aware of anyone actually doing that calculation for amount of CO2, and it would appear to be a fairly pointless exercise. If it ever happens, it will not be soon, meaning not for thousands, if not millions of years.