Fewer deaths from war.

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Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:52 am

https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace/

The reference above shows how the number of people dying in wars is dropping. There is a detailed set of graphs and statistics to bear this out. We tend to be in the firing line of bull-shit from journalists, who keep telling us how violent the world is. But the truth is that it is less violent now than any time in history, and by a large margin. The reference above is about war, but the same applies to deaths by homicide, which is also falling. The truth is optimistic, even though journalists keep sending us fake news.

The fall in homicide rates is shown in the reference below.

https://ourworldindata.org/homicides/

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Phoenix76 » Sun Sep 10, 2017 5:13 am

I've read your links Lance, and whilst I would have accepted the drop in casualties from war, I was surprised at the drop in homicides.

Okay, we are involved in war at the moment, sort of, but the death rates are much lower than you would expect. Scary thing is though, if our little fat mate in N K gets his finger on the button anytime soon, those stats will be blown out of the water.

But the homicides surprised me. I know the America traditionally has a higher rate of homicide than we do in Australia, our local news seems to be full of these days. I'm not talking fake news and I'm not talking about how the media can blow it out of all proportion, I'm talking about personal perception from what I here or read in our media.

Anyway, interesting and hopeful.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 10, 2017 5:27 am

Nice to see someone actually read the references, Phoenix.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:03 pm

Everyone think Kim will be willing to risk his little empire.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby TJrandom » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:19 pm

I grant that it is difficult to clearly establish the population of the past – but find his estimate of deaths for Conquest of Americas of 15 million to be wildly low – since estimates come closer to 45 million (90% of a 50 million population, or even 90 million if the population was 100 million, the high-end estimate). Of course many of these would have been from disease, so maybe the author excluded this cause. I do note that correcting this would still support his hypothesis that more recent conflicts kill fewer people.

In addition, the most recent large number of war deaths per year is from WW2. But since WW3 has yet to be fought, maybe he can be forgiven for not including estimated deaths from nuclear powers of several billion if the various estimates can be believed.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:59 pm

I think, TJ, we cannot use past trends to predict the future with any certainty. Of course past trends is still the best method we have. A lot better than tea leaves. Rather obviously, a nuclear war would kill more people than any previous war. However, the trend is a source of hope that sanity might prevail.

WWII was the result of a total arsehole getting into power. Right now, both NK and the USA have total arseholes in power, so things are a bit shakey.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:21 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:WWII was the result of a total arsehole getting into power. Right now, both NK and the USA have total arseholes in power, so things are a bit shakey.

One of them is well trained I the art of preserving a totalitarian dictatorship. The other is only well trained in the art of {!#%@}. Still, a bit shakey.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby TJrandom » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:32 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:I think, TJ, we cannot use past trends to predict the future with any certainty. Of course past trends is still the best method we have. A lot better than tea leaves. Rather obviously, a nuclear war would kill more people than any previous war. However, the trend is a source of hope that sanity might prevail.

WWII was the result of a total arsehole getting into power. Right now, both NK and the USA have total arseholes in power, so things are a bit shakey.


Plus Putin....

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:14 am

To TJ

You are correct, but Putin is a clever arsehole. He will play the other two against each other to his own advantage.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Nikki Nyx » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:28 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace/

The reference above shows how the number of people dying in wars is dropping. There is a detailed set of graphs and statistics to bear this out. We tend to be in the firing line of bull-shit from journalists, who keep telling us how violent the world is. But the truth is that it is less violent now than any time in history, and by a large margin. The reference above is about war, but the same applies to deaths by homicide, which is also falling. The truth is optimistic, even though journalists keep sending us fake news.

The fall in homicide rates is shown in the reference below.

https://ourworldindata.org/homicides/
OTOH, at least in the US, the suicide rate has surged to a 30-year high. I don't believe these statistics include drug overdoses, which are a huge problem in the US. So, there is some optimism, but also some pessimism, unfortunately.

I don't really have faith in "journalists" any more, or only a select few. Most will report on whatever will garner the largest audience, not on what's actually happening in the world.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:40 am

Indeed not very nice, Nikki. Globally, there are a million suicides per year. That is 16 suicides per 100,000 people, which is a lot higher than either homicides or war deaths.

One of the things that bothers me is the large number of males who suicide by hanging. If you put a bullet through your brain or jump off a high building, the death is quick and generally painless. But hanging was originally invented as a torture to death method. Death by strangulation while hanging can take ten minutes of total agony. Why would anyone do this to themselves deliberately ?

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Phoenix76 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:54 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Nice to see someone actually read the references, Phoenix.


How can I honestly respond if I don't read your supporting documentation? I know some do, quite often, but!!!

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Phoenix76 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:58 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Everyone think Kim will be willing to risk his little empire.


Trouble is GS, that our little fat mate is so full of himself, just like Hitler if you wish, that it may take little provocation for him to push the button. If that happens, it's on for young and old, and no holds barred.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Phoenix76 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:08 am

Lance said:
However, the trend is a source of hope that sanity might prevail.

WWII was the result of a total arsehole getting into power. Right now, both NK and the USA have total arseholes in power, so things are a bit shakey.

I like your optimism Lance, though I don't share it. I mean, I hope you are right - BUT.

Honestly, I do not believe that Trump will start it by pressing the button. He may antagonize Kim enough for Kim to push the button, but at the end of the day, how will we really know who pushed said button first? The world as we know it is teetering on the edge of an abyss.

And Lance it does worry me. I'm a Vet, and whilst I could not stand up with today's soldiers, I can look after myself to a certain extent. My worry is my family. My wife would not survive the privations of a nuclear war. My boys, although we have always referred to them as "the ferals", well I'm not sure. So my friend, I hope your feelings are correct.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:27 am

Phoenix76 wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Everyone think Kim will be willing to risk his little empire.


Trouble is GS, that our little fat mate is so full of himself, just like Hitler if you wish, that it may take little provocation for him to push the button. If that happens, it's on for young and old, and no holds barred.

Your degree is psychology is missing a signature.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:58 pm

I do not believe that's NK could inflict truly major damage on the west. The response would turn Kim's country into a radioactive wasteland. But his ability to do the same to us is inadequate. I still hope that it never happens.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby TJrandom » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:32 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:I do not believe that's NK could inflict truly major damage on the west. The response would turn Kim's country into a radioactive wasteland. But his ability to do the same to us is inadequate. I still hope that it never happens.


Not sure who you include in `us`, but if he were of a mind to do so - I do believe he could kill millions in SK and even in Japan - Tokyo alone having a 36 million population - and all before he was shut down. Plus there would be the NK deaths, and possibly deaths from radiation in the following years in several countries, but possibly more so in NK. But yes - probably not so many IN the west, but certainly westerners in these countries.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:39 pm

TJrandom wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:I do not believe that's NK could inflict truly major damage on the west. The response would turn Kim's country into a radioactive wasteland. But his ability to do the same to us is inadequate. I still hope that it never happens.


Not sure who you include in `us`, but if he were of a mind to do so - I do believe he could kill millions in SK and even in Japan - Tokyo alone having a 36 million population - and all before he was shut down. Plus there would be the NK deaths, and possibly deaths from radiation in the following years in several countries, but possibly more so in NK. But yes - probably not so many IN the west, but certainly westerners in these countries.


NK artillery is so well protected that it could destroy Seoul before any kind of pre-emptive strike could neutralize it. South Koreans are not happy about that.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:57 pm

I am not suggesting it as a good outcome. Just saying that the impact will not be the end of the world. Nor do I think that the NK idiot will push it that far. Even his insanity only goes so far. I suspect that if he ordered the button pushed, one of his followers would dealt to him with a bullet.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:42 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Indeed not very nice, Nikki. Globally, there are a million suicides per year. That is 16 suicides per 100,000 people, which is a lot higher than either homicides or war deaths.

One of the things that bothers me is the large number of males who suicide by hanging. If you put a bullet through your brain or jump off a high building, the death is quick and generally painless. But hanging was originally invented as a torture to death method. Death by strangulation while hanging can take ten minutes of total agony. Why would anyone do this to themselves deliberately ?

I know, right? A smart person would stick a garden hose up the exhaust pipe. A tried and true method. You just go to sleep and never wake up. You also have time to bail if you change your mind. {!#%@} noobs.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:55 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Everyone think Kim will be willing to risk his little empire.

I'm with Gawd on this one. Ain't gonna happen. He knows he'd get stomped on. And his strongest ally, China, though they may formally protest at losing a small bit of business, will look aside while it happens. China has a long game. They're very astute. They know war is bad for business.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:29 pm

Major Malfunction wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Everyone think Kim will be willing to risk his little empire.

I'm with Gawd on this one. Ain't gonna happen. He knows he'd get stomped on. And his strongest ally, China, though they may formally protest at losing a small bit of business, will look aside while it happens. China has a long game. They're very astute. They know war is bad for business.

As the Chinese told the Mongols, "Your grandchildren will be Chinese."
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:44 pm

Speaking from a Humanity perspective, they have some good genes I wouldn't mind sharing. ;)
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby TJrandom » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:00 am

Jeans - right? :lol:

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:22 am

No. I'm very particular about my jeans.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:28 am

Major Malfunction wrote:No. I'm very particular about my jeans.

And who gets in them.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Nikki Nyx » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:20 pm

Major Malfunction wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:Indeed not very nice, Nikki. Globally, there are a million suicides per year. That is 16 suicides per 100,000 people, which is a lot higher than either homicides or war deaths.

One of the things that bothers me is the large number of males who suicide by hanging. If you put a bullet through your brain or jump off a high building, the death is quick and generally painless. But hanging was originally invented as a torture to death method. Death by strangulation while hanging can take ten minutes of total agony. Why would anyone do this to themselves deliberately ?

I know, right? A smart person would stick a garden hose up the exhaust pipe. A tried and true method. You just go to sleep and never wake up. You also have time to bail if you change your mind. {!#%@} noobs.
A smart person would realize that his/her current mood is temporary, as evidenced by the fact that it has not always existed.* A smart person would also realize that it is the epitome of self-centered {!#%@} to cash out and leave the people who love you wondering WTF happened and how they could have helped.* A smart person would get help.

*Speaking as both someone who has suffered from Major Depressive Disorder for 40 years AND as someone who has lost a family member and a close friend to suicide. It's a shitty thing to do, cowardly and selfish.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:24 pm

A person who attempts suicide is not actually wanting to die. He or she just wants the pain to end. Normally the impulse to suicide is temporary, and to survive the impulse just for an hour is usually enough to get past it.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:40 pm

Nikki Nyx wrote:
Major Malfunction wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:Indeed not very nice, Nikki. Globally, there are a million suicides per year. That is 16 suicides per 100,000 people, which is a lot higher than either homicides or war deaths.

One of the things that bothers me is the large number of males who suicide by hanging. If you put a bullet through your brain or jump off a high building, the death is quick and generally painless. But hanging was originally invented as a torture to death method. Death by strangulation while hanging can take ten minutes of total agony. Why would anyone do this to themselves deliberately ?

I know, right? A smart person would stick a garden hose up the exhaust pipe. A tried and true method. You just go to sleep and never wake up. You also have time to bail if you change your mind. {!#%@} noobs.
A smart person would realize that his/her current mood is temporary, as evidenced by the fact that it has not always existed.* A smart person would also realize that it is the epitome of self-centered {!#%@} to cash out and leave the people who love you wondering WTF happened and how they could have helped.* A smart person would get help.

*Speaking as both someone who has suffered from Major Depressive Disorder for 40 years AND as someone who has lost a family member and a close friend to suicide. It's a shitty thing to do, cowardly and selfish.

"Suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem."
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:04 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Major Malfunction wrote:No. I'm very particular about my jeans.

And who gets in them.

Nah, not really. I'm a bloke afterall, and there's the Beer equation to consider as well. It's more about the price and style of cut.

I think we've already reached the end-game of warfare. In the very near future, all our disputes will be settled by robots, like these...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE2KPDRl8jo
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby TJrandom » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:08 am

In a very real sense - those nuke tipped rockets are robots... just sayin....

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:18 am

So where are your mechas, Nippon? South Korea's got one. Falling behind a bit, methinks. :P

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rgFtkMiXms
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:33 am

And just because it's on topic right at the moment (co-incidence thread?)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ2N9UZo8wc
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby TJrandom » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:41 am

That`s nuttin`... we got robots working, paying taxes, signed up for national healthcare insurance, slippin out early for lunchtime dates, and who knows what they get up to after work.... ;)

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:13 am

Because anything goes at the Radio Love Shack.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Nikki Nyx » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:53 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:A person who attempts suicide is not actually wanting to die. He or she just wants the pain to end. Normally the impulse to suicide is temporary, and to survive the impulse just for an hour is usually enough to get past it.
Exactly. It doesn't even take an hour; all it takes is a few seconds imagining the impact on your family and friends. Suddenly, you discover you have the strength to last out the temporary hell.

This hearkens back to a discussion in another thread about happiness. Happiness occurs in degrees. If you expect to be joyously, orgasmically happy all the time, well, you're in for one hell of a disappointment. However, contentment is also a degree of happiness. Shoot for that, and you'll reach the goal most of the time, not merely because of your circumstances, but also in spite of them. Because it's a choice, and if you don't know how to make it, you can learn (to switch on the appropriate neurochemicals).
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:16 pm

I read an interesting account from a guy who survived a suicide attempt, jumping from the Golden Gate bridge. There was a boat right next to where he hit the water and they pulled him out, gave CPR and got him to hospital and he recovered. His report was that the moment after he jumped, and realised that he was now unable to alter his fate, he realised how utterly stupid it was, and wanted desperately to reverse that choice but could not. After he recovered, he got his life back together and never, ever considered suicide again.

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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:49 am

Funny how time slows and priorities are quickly sorted when {!#%@} gets real.
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:00 pm

Major Malfunction wrote:Funny how time slows and priorities are quickly sorted when {!#%@} gets real.

I had a guy make a left turn in front of me once, 2010 iirc. I had time to think "Well, that's the end of this vehicle" before we hit left headlight to left headlight. Took me back to the days when I was killing people for fun and profit (mostly fun, there wasn't much profit.)
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WWII Resources. Primary sources.
The Myths of Pearl Harbor. Demythologizing the attack.
Hyperwar. Hypertext history of the Second World War.
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Major Malfunction
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Re: Fewer deaths from war.

Postby Major Malfunction » Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:39 am

At least it's tax-free.
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