How many lives saved by gun control.

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Lance Kennedy
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How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:49 pm

I am comparing the USA with my country, New Zealand.

The average number of deaths each year by gun, both murder and suicide (as deaths per 100,000 people per year) for the two countries is :

NZ gun murders 0.11, gun suicides 0.84
USA gun murders 3.43, gun suicides 6.69

The total deaths in the USA were 17,250 murders in 2017, and 42,773 suicides in 2014. (I chose those years simply because they were the first to appear when I did a Google search). Roughly two thirds of murders and one half of suicides are done with guns. So, the figures above translate into gun murders and gun suicides as 11,500 gun murders and 21,000 gun suicides.

Let me round those numbers to 10,000 gun murders and 20,000 gun suicides per year in the USA.

If gun murders and suicides were running at the NZ rate, those numbers would be less than 400 gun murders, and 2,500 gun suicides.

My conclusion is that the ready availability of guns in the USA is killing 27,000 people unnecessarily in the USA EVERY year. More rational gun control laws would lead to between 25,000 and 30,000 lives being saved every year.

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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:06 pm

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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:33 pm

Lance: why do you round off the numbers and then do nothing with them? ((Call that an aside?))

Like every other issues on Earth, gun homicides is MULTI-FACTORIAL. Only propagandists with an agenda will hinge any conclusion on one variable alone. EG: it is often stated that conflict in general increases with cultural variation within a society. The age stratifications. As you have said: the wealth and education of the society are additional variables.

So, I agree gun availability is a main driver...but it doesn't account for 100% of the variation. You know this, I'm just reminding you.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:02 pm

That is why, Bobbo, I compared the USA to NZ. The major difference in terms of gun deaths, is simply the number of guns available. If you are looking at street gangs, the drug trade and other such criminal influences, you should note that they are also present in large amount, in NZ as well as the USA.

The only major influence, apart from guns, that I am aware affects the USA but not NZ very much, is the vigilante ethic. I suspect that the two factors influence each other. For example, those who feel the vigilante justice idea, also want to have guns. I note that the vigilante ethic, along with high murder rate, is strong in the ex confederate states. (From Prof Stephen Pinker)

It may also be true that those who love guns rationalise their weird love affair by suggesting they need to be able to deal out vigilante justice.

So in addition to stronger gun control laws (at Federal level), the USA needs an education (propaganda) program to show Americans that the idea of vigilante justice is sick and horribly damaging to society.

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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:09 pm

And they just made a new "Death Wish" movie. Starring Bruce Willis, of course.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Matthew Ellard » Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:46 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:The only major influence, apart from guns, that I am aware affects the USA but not NZ very much, is the vigilante ethic.
I do think that is a contributing reason. The Americans rebelled against England and had the Wild West.

Australia had the rum rebellion when the colony's English government was overthrown because they didn't distribute enough cheap rum. Once the cheap rum returned everyone went back to work and the English army took over control again. So much for Australia's rebellious nature.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:22 am

The Wild West was largely a construct of the pulp fiction industry. Not nearly so wild as the movies would have you believe.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:59 am

Or alternately, you can consider the USA today to be a marginally watered down version of the wild West. Certainly, the murder rate is at least four times as high as any other western nation.

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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:19 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:That is why, Bobbo, I compared the USA to NZ. The major difference in terms of gun deaths, is simply the number of guns available.
I dunno. I spent 2 WHOLE WEEKS in New Zealand, traveled from North to South. I found the place to be pretty ethnically homogenous and no gang activity. Now..... no way I "know" the country...but travel here in the USA from North to South and I think you will see what ethnic diversity and gang activity actually means.

As to the vigilante/wild west mentality: I think that is a large part, but not all the significant parts of: Gun Culture. Got a problem?===>shoot someone. Not really vigilante or wild west although both do occur.

Look at Trumps latest: I would have rushed into that Florida School "even if I didn't have a gun." but of course, his operating fantasy is that he would have major gun power.

Yep: my country is.................sick. Add it to the list......religion, sports, gingoism....etc.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:05 pm

"jingoism".
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:18 pm

Not gringoism?
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:36 pm

Bobbo

Gang activity in NZ.

I am not surprised you saw none. It tends, as these things are, to be localised. There are certain areas in certain towns where gangs are prominent, and other areas where they are not to be see .

I have done about five trips to the USA, and visited nine different states, and many towns and cities within those states. I have yet to see my first sign of gang activity inside the USA. I saw plenty of people obviously poverty stricken, though.

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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by JO 753 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:28 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: Like every other issues on Earth, gun homicides is MULTI-FACTORIAL. Only propagandists with an agenda will hinge any conclusion on one variable alone...

So, I agree gun availability is a main driver...but it doesn't account for 100% of the variation. You know this, I'm just reminding you.
Incorrect, mostly.

Subtract gunz from any society and the gun homicide & suicide rates fall to zero.

And if you alter the availability, the rates will ruffly follow. The only other factor uv significant influens iz the prezens uv humanz. Substitute chimps and the rates probably go way up, maybe to 100%. Substitute anjelz and they probably go to zero.

Now, if you are only comparing USA to NZ, trying to determine how much a bunch uv other factorz besidez the availabilty uv gunz affects the rates, good luck.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:34 am

Well Jo!!!!!!!

you are entirely incorrect as there is no country on earth without guns. So, your insight is just a fantasy. In the real world, guns present a multi-factorial situation.

Always: deal with reality.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by JO 753 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:41 pm

No! I am entirely correct kuz the theory haz real world proof and the idea that there coud be gun fatalityz with no gunz iz nonsens.
Japan & gunz
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by JO 753 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:43 pm

Story the NRA hopes for: Lone gunman killz Japan
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:08 pm

Jo: name the country that has NO guns.

.................................................................................. I'll wait.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gord » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:31 pm

I just watched a video about someone's opinion on gun control, and was thinking about sharing it (but wasn't gonna until now).



(Hiith is one of those ex-Christian atheist youtubers who responds to theist youtubers' questions to atheists. This video is a little outside of his normal realm of topics.)
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Mar 03, 2018 6:55 pm

There is no country totally without guns, but there are several that come close. Japan being the obvious example. Japan has close to zero gun homicides.

There are nations with fewer guns than the USA, and more gun homicides, but they are nations at war with themselves. Mexico is the obvious example, with its ongoing drug wars. If you look instead at Western wealthy developed nations (about 25 of them, including Japan, and Singapore.), the USA is a major outrider, with vastly more gun homicides per capita than any of the others.

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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by JO 753 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:50 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Jo: name the country that has NO guns.

.................................................................................. I'll wait.
Japan.

You are thinking 'absolute zero', but thats not a useful perspectiv.

The only gunz a Japaneze sitizen can get legally are shot gunz and air gunz. Even thoze require an extreemly onerous application prosess. And forget illegal gunz. Even the criminalz dont want anything to do with them! Japan Gangsterz dont want gunz

Frum xu Japan Timez article:
Acting on a tip, police blocked off all the roads in Tokyo’s glitzy Roppongi district and cornered Kuwata’s convoy of Mercedes. They then searched all the cars and, when they found a pistol in one of them, Kuwata was — in a precedent-setting legal move — arrested as an accomplice on gun-possession charges. After a long court battle, he was sentenced to seven years in prison.
The polise are extreemly careful about their own gunz. Each bullet iz accounted for and if wun goez missing, the entire department's mission iz to find it!
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Aztexan » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:13 pm

It's not fair comparing Japan to America when it comes to guns. The Japanese value education and Americans do not. Therein lies the difference.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:56 pm

If you want to go that route you should only compare the US to countries inside our borders.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Aztexan » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:29 pm

Which two?
Red America vs Blue America?
Poor America vs Rich America?
Fat America vs Fatter America?
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Aztexan » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:34 pm

With all the questions and possible solutions as to what we can do to prevent another massacre, arming teachers or not, fortifying schools or not, banning guns or not, only one thing can really put us on track to go in the right direction: we need to spend more on education.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:05 am

Jo: exactly right. so...use of guns in Japan is multi-factorial. That was the point.
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Re: How many lives saved by gun control.

Post by Gord » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:54 pm

I think we all know that, without God to tell them what to do, many theists would immediately go on murder sprees. (Evidence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kF7rMiFBLA )

Therefore, in countries that are heavily atheist like, um, Swidzenland and Northwag, many of those people who would have been or should have been theists are going to be atheists. Therefore, if they had guns, they would be murdering everyone. Right? Because that's only logical?

And so we can conclude, using logicalness, that everyone in Swedzerlund and Norvwey who isn't dead at this time, has theretofor and hence been saved, in terms of their lives, by gun control. Ergo! Ergo, I say!
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