American guns on dark web.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:00 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:The so-called "right to bear arms " is a crock. It comes partly from a historical event, where the government wanted to make sure it had access to unpaid militia with their own guns, in case of invasion. The rest of it comes from the big money being spent by gun makers to ensure their market remains untouched. They have hundreds of millions of dollars to bribe those who might get in the way of their ability to sell billions of dollars of guns each year.

In other advanced western nations, governments remain unbribed and realise that this freedom is harmful to society. They control it. In that sense, it is no different to the controls put on the right to drive drunk.


You are of course entitled to your opinion. But thanks for explaining your prejudices and biases and misunderstanding of history. In what country is there a right to drive drunk?

Fortunately, the US Supreme Court does not agree with you. Sorry, Lance, but their opinion counts more than yours.

Perhaps you forgot, the right to bear arms was acknowledged as a legal right long before the US Constitution and it had nothing to do with the government needing a militia. Ever hear of the UK Bill of Rights of 1689?

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:03 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/gun- ... ?r=US&IR=T

The above reference is about money's given by gun makers to the NRA. The NRA has become the prime pusher for assault rifles. Why ? It did not begin that way. Initially it was a club for a sector of the population, and looked after their interests. Now it spends more of its time looking after the gun makers.

The USA is often seen as a very religious nation, with a much higher percentage of its population being strongly Christian than in other western nations. But that is not true for those at the top. Politicians, and the wealthy have their own religion, and it is money and power. Those with money spend it in order to make more money. And yes, this includes bribing politicians.

To Xouper.
Try actually reading the second amendment if you think it has nothing to do with militias.

It reads.
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed. "

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:16 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:https://www.businessinsider.com.au/gun-industry-funds-nra-2013-1?r=US&IR=T

The above reference is about money's given by gun makers to the NRA. The NRA has become the prime pusher for assault rifles. Why ? It did not begin that way. Initially it was a club for a sector of the population, and looked after their interests. Now it spends more of its time looking after the gun makers.

The USA is often seen as a very religious nation, with a much higher percentage of its population being strongly Christian than in other western nations. But that is not true for those at the top. Politicians, and the wealthy have their own religion, and it is money and power. Those with money spend it in order to make more money. And yes, this includes bribing politicians.

To Xouper.
Try actually reading the second amendment if you think it has nothing to do with militias.


I have read it, Lance. Many times. Perhaps you should try reading the US Supreme Court decisions which explain why the Second Amendment is an individual right of the people, not a right only for the militia. Your misinterpretation of the Second Amendment is a common error made by gun haters.

As for your other misguided propaganda, you can whine all you want over there in New Zealand, but your opinion about the NRA doesn't mean squat. The gun industry in the US has every right to protect itself from politicians who would destroy it.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:17 pm

https://www.quora.com/Has-a-U-S-Supreme ... ng-a-bribe


On the Supreme Court.
I do not trust anything stated by the American Supreme Court because it is politically suspect. Too many members of the Supreme Court are political appointees, and thus will not necessarily do what is right for the people, but rather what is right for those who provide appointments. I suspect that the Supreme Court itself is not above corruption. The reference above shows a clear cut case of a Supreme Court judge taking bribes.

It is also noteworthy that the Supreme Court passed a judgement last year exonerating a Congressman who took bribes. Commentators have said that, with this precedent, it will now be very difficult to prosecute politicians and officials for accepting bribes. Does this mean that Supreme Court judges can now accept bribes with little fear of prosecution ?

The Supreme Court statement on the right to bear arms was so ridiculous that I can only surmise that corruption was a factor.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:20 pm

xouper wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness.


How does my owning or carrying a gun infringe any of those rights?
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Its not YOU xouper.


Thanks for acknowledging that all the people in the US who are law-abiding gun owners are not infringing on any of your rights. Depending on which estimates you believe, that could be half of the population.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:23 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:On the Supreme Court. I do not trust anything stated by the American Supreme Court because it is politically suspect. . . . The Supreme Court statement on the right to bear arms was so ridiculous that I can only surmise that corruption was a factor.


Sorry Lance, no one in the US cares what your delusional opinion is.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:23 pm

Here are two questions.

Why is it that the USA alone, among all the nations of the world, have the following restrictions.

1. A prohibition on collecting statistics on gun ownership.
2. A prohibition on using taxpayers funding for research on the social impact of guns.

Don't come back with some lame brain statement about individual rights. The equivalent in statistics collecting and social research is unfettered in pretty much every other aspect of American life. Why guns are so special ? The obvious answer is the power of money, provided by the gun manufacturers.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:41 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Here are two questions.

Why is it that the USA alone, among all the nations of the world, have the following restrictions.

1. A prohibition on collecting statistics on gun ownership.
2. A prohibition on using taxpayers funding for research on the social impact of guns.


The answer is there are no such prohibitions.

I assume you are referring to this:

wikipedia wrote:In United States politics, the Dickey Amendment is a provision first inserted as a rider into the 1996 federal government omnibus spending bill which mandated that "none of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may be used to advocate or promote gun control."[1]


They can spend money on gun research and collecting statistics, but not on political advocacy or to promote gun control.

In fact in 2012, Obama issued an executive order for the CDC to do a study of gun violence, which they did and released this report in 2013:

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18319/priorities-for-research-to-reduce-the-threat-of-firearm-related-violence

Trigger warning: You might not want to read that report because it contains some things that might make your head explode.


So see, there is not (and never was) a prohibition on gun research by the government.



Edited to add: Here's a review of it from a liberal media source:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/01/16/the-study-that-gun-rights-activists-keep-citing-but-completely-misunderstand/?utm_term=.9680476818f8
Last edited by xouper on Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:54 pm

Your report says that the biggest risk of firearms crime is young men with a history of violence.

Big deal. There is absolutely nothing new there. We have always known that.

My thesis is simply that making guns, and especially hand guns, more available increases murder rates.

FBI records show that there are 4,000 hand gun murders each year in the USA caused by two guys having a heated argument, and one guy pulls out a hand gun and shoots the other one dead. Do you honestly suggest that these murders are not influenced by the easy availability of hand guns ? If you do, I question your sanity.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:03 pm

xouper wants his gun no matter what else. Everything else is word games.

Just look.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:04 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Your report says that the biggest risk of firearms crime is young men with a history of violence.

Big deal. There is absolutely nothing new there. We have always known that.


The point was to show that there is no prohibition against gun research, as you mistakenly claimed.


Lance Kennedy wrote:My thesis is simply that making guns, and especially hand guns, more available increases murder rates.


Yes, we all know that's your thesis. It's a downright shame that your thesis is contradicted by so many other thesises.


Lance Kennedy wrote:FBI records show that there are 4,000 hand gun murders each year in the USA caused by two guys having a heated argument, and one guy pulls out a hand gun and shoots the other one dead. Do you honestly suggest that these murders are not influenced by the easy availability of hand guns ?


Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

I have no idea, Lance. And neither does anyone else, if they are being honest about it.

There are places in the US where more guns seems to correlate to more gun murders, but there are also places where more guns correlates to fewer gun murders. There must be some other confounding factor and the mere presence of the gun is not necessarily the primary cause.

More research is needed. Honest research, not that BS from liberal gun grabbers at Haahhvard.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:09 pm

xouper wrote:There must be some other confounding factor and the mere presence of the gun is not necessarily the primary cause.
WITHOUT EXCEPTION: every instance of gun violence includes the use of a gun. ERGO==>the unavoidable logic you cannot spin away is: No Guns, No Gun Violence. Lots of remotely and closely related issues can be argued, but not that one.


xouper wrote: More research is needed. Honest research, not that BS from liberal gun grabbers at Haahhvard.
When you have already admitted you don't care about statistics, this is BS Spin. You don't care xouper. You've been: pegged.

Sucks to be you.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:12 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:xouper wants his gun no matter what else. Everything else is word games.

Just look.


Close enough.

I would not have phrased it that way, but essentially you are more or less correct.

To me, and to the US Supreme Court, it is a fundamental matter of individual civil liberties and the right to personal self defense.

As you say, the rest is just word games. :thumbsup:

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:26 pm

That does become the bottom line. Its true of most disputes: values (trumping) facts and common sense.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:27 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
xouper wrote:There must be some other confounding factor and the mere presence of the gun is not necessarily the primary cause.


WITHOUT EXCEPTION: every instance of gun violence includes the use of a gun. ERGO==>the unavoidable logic you cannot spin away is: No Guns, No Gun Violence. Lots of remotely and closely related issues can be argued, but not that one.


You are correct. Your syllogism is flawless.

Let me show you some more just like it.

WITHOUT EXCEPTION: every instance of death by drunk driver includes the use of a car. ERGO==>the unavoidable logic you cannot spin away is: No cars, No death by drunk drivers.

WITHOUT EXCEPTION: every instance of a child drowning in a swimming pool includes the use of a swimming pool. ERGO==>the unavoidable logic you cannot spin away is: No swimming pools, No children drowning in them.

WITHOUT EXCEPTION: every instance of knife violence includes the use of a knife. ERGO==>the unavoidable logic you cannot spin away is: No knives, No knife Violence.

Your logic is impeccable, bobbo. Well done. :thumbsup:

Now, I know what yer gonna say next, because we've had this very discussion more than once in previous threads. You will say, yeah but cars and swimming pools and knives all have a purpose besides killing people. And that would be correct. What is also correct is that guns also have a purpose beside killing people, even though that is what they were designed for.

So even though your syllogism is logically correct, it is essentially an irrelevant tautology.

Got anything new to add to that, or are you going to keep playing this same old broken record?


bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
xouper wrote: More research is needed. Honest research, not that BS from liberal gun grabbers at Haahhvard.


When you have already admitted you don't care about statistics, this is BS Spin. You don't care xouper. You've been: pegged.


I would phrase it differently. I do indeed care that people are getting killed and injured by guns. What I disagree with is the proposed solution of banning guns. Instead, find some other way to solve the problem that does not punish law-abiding citizens who have the right of self defense with a firearm.


bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Sucks to be you.


So I've heard. :lol:

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:32 pm

We both agree the syllogism is rock solid.

As you know: cars provide a necessary societal benefit of transportation. Xouper getting what he wants, does not.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:33 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:That does become the bottom line. Its true of most disputes: values (trumping) facts and common sense.


That's not correct. And you were doing so well up to this point. ;)

Here's the real bottom line: Your values do not trump my values.

And your opinion as to what constitutes "commons sense" does not trump my opinion.

Stalemate. The status quo continues.

Besides, you already conceded that my right to own and carry a gun does not infringe your rights, so you have no moral grounds for denying my right to own and carry a gun.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:41 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:We both agree the syllogism is rock solid.

As you know: cars provide a necessary societal benefit of transportation. Xouper getting what he wants, does not.


It's not just about me. It's about all law-abiding citizens who want to have a gun for self defense, or any other legitimate purpose such as hunting or sport shooting or whatever.

There is indeed a societal benefit for people being able to defend against the bad guys, especially when the police are not able to respond quickly enough, which is most of the time.

I assume you recall I posted a whole thread full of examples of self defense with a gun.

viewtopic.php?f=97&t=25360

Got anything new to add, or are you just going to keep playing your broken record, the one we've already heard a bazillion times?

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:51 pm

xouper wrote: It's not just about me. It's about all law-abiding citizens who want to have a gun for self defense, or any other legitimate purpose such as hunting or sport shooting or whatever.

No.... its just YOU... and similiarly self centered people who don't care about anything else except your desire to have a gun. Not hunting or sport shooting or whatever. Such benefit to society as stated is ZERO.

Cars on the other hand, allow sane people to get away from people like you....as much as they can.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:08 pm

xouper wrote:

There are places in the US where more guns seems to correlate to more gun murders, but there are also places where more guns correlates to fewer gun murders. There must be some other confounding factor and the mere presence of the gun is not necessarily the primary cause.

More research is needed. Honest research, not that BS from liberal gun grabbers at Haahhvard.


A pair of numbers is not a correlation. For example : the murder rate in NY versus gun ownership in NY does not constitute a correlation. To get a meankngful correlation requires a minimum of 12 data pairs. That could be gun ownership versus murder rate in 12 states. Better to get all 50 states. Talking of places where more guns correlates to more murders is a clear indication that you do not understand correlation. Repeat. You need at least 12 data pairs.

The main reason I am truly sceptical about your earlier graph of murder rate versus gun ownership by state is the problem of average gun ownership by state. Because of the pathological American government fear (or policy based on bribery to prevent getting proper data), there are no official figures showing gun ownership by state. The team at Harvard got around this using a proxy measurement for gun ownership. But I have no idea where your graph got its data. For all I know, the authors guessed every such number. The result is so utterly different to that achieved by Harvard, which means one or the other research team was dishonest. I doubt seriouslh that it was the very reputable Harvard researchers.

On more research being needed. I am glad, Xouper, to finally see something we agree on. Does this mean you support the removal of the legal restrictions to such research ?

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:15 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
xouper wrote: It's not just about me. It's about all law-abiding citizens who want to have a gun for self defense, or any other legitimate purpose such as hunting or sport shooting or whatever.

No.... its just YOU... and similiarly self centered people who don't care about anything else except your desire to have a gun. Not hunting or sport shooting or whatever. Such benefit to society as stated is ZERO.

Cars on the other hand, allow sane people to get away from people like you....as much as they can.


OK, obviously we do not agree on these points.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:20 pm

http://www.numbersleuth.org/guns/

Here is a nice summary of data on guns in the USA.
Xouper, I do not expect you to have the courage to read it, since it is a damning indictment of easy availability of guns in America.

They have a list of their own estimates of gun ownership by state. I do not know how accurate it is, but out of interest, I am going to calculate the correlation, if any, between that list of ownership figures and murders by state. It might take me a little while.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:35 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
xouper wrote:There are places in the US where more guns seems to correlate to more gun murders, but there are also places where more guns correlates to fewer gun murders. There must be some other confounding factor and the mere presence of the gun is not necessarily the primary cause.

More research is needed. Honest research, not that BS from liberal gun grabbers at Haahhvard.


A pair of numbers is not a correlation.


I fully agree. It's a good thing I didn't intend to do that, eh? Perhaps I should not have used the word "correlates", since that seems to have distracted you from my intended meaning. My bad. Let me rephrase:

There are places in the US where there are more guns and more gun murders, but there are also places where there are more guns and fewer gun murders. These data points (x,y pairs) and other data points (x,y pairs) from other places results in no correlation.

Is that phrased better?


Lance Kennedy wrote: For example : the murder rate in NY versus gun ownership in NY does not constitute a correlation. To get a meankngful correlation requires a minimum of 12 data pairs. That could be gun ownership versus murder rate in 12 states. Better to get all 50 states. Talking of places where more guns correlates to more murders is a clear indication that you do not understand correlation. Repeat. You need at least 12 data pairs.


And I showed a graph of the 50 states and the data points (x,y pairs) were all over the chart. No correlation.


Lance Kennedy wrote:The main reason I am truly sceptical about your earlier graph of murder rate versus gun ownership by state is the problem of average gun ownership by state. Because of the pathological American government fear (or policy based on bribery to prevent getting proper data), there are no official figures showing gun ownership by state. The team at Harvard got around this using a proxy measurement for gun ownership. But I have no idea where your graph got its data.


The source is cited at the bottom of the graph.


Lance Kennedy wrote: For all I know, the authors guessed every such number. The result is so utterly different to that achieved by Harvard, which means one or the other research team was dishonest. I doubt seriouslh that it was the very reputable Harvard researchers.


Sorry, the Harvard researchers are biased. If you can dismiss researchers like John Lott, then I can dismiss the Harvard guys for the same exact reason, bias.


Lance Kennedy wrote:On more research being needed. I am glad, Xouper, to finally see something we agree on. Does this mean you support the removal of the legal restrictions to such research ?


I do not support taxpayer money (my money) being spent on gun control advocacy. Leave the political advocacy to the politicians, and limit the researchers to doing only research, not political advocacy.

Does that answer your question?

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:42 pm

Wut da fuk?

I thought we were all in agreement that facts didn't matter?

Oh well. Heres another irrelevant fact then:

"Largest Gun Study Ever: More Guns, More Murder"

https://thinkprogress.org/largest-gun-s ... c2a00b8d1/
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:04 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:http://www.numbersleuth.org/guns/

Here is a nice summary of data on guns in the USA.
Xouper, I do not expect you to have the courage to read it, since it is a damning indictment of easy availability of guns in America.


Your taunting worked. ;) I went and read it, top to bottom. It is a very nice example of how to lie with statistics. I'll have to bookmark that one. I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, I'm saying some of the numbers are cherry-picked to fit the narrative they want, and they ignore numbers that ruin that narrative.

Image

Your local library probably has a copy (or it's equivalent). If you read it, make sure to read the section about "correlation is not evidence of causation".


Lance Kennedy wrote:They have a list of their own estimates of gun ownership by state. I do not know how accurate it is, but out of interest, I am going to calculate the correlation, if any, between that list of ownership figures and murders by state. It might take me a little while.


If you do, please past the raw data here (the 50 pairs of numbers) so others can verify the correlation. Thanks.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:08 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:"Largest Gun Study Ever: More Guns, More Murder"

It makes sense. Mathematically, if you apply the other extreme, there can't be any gun murders if there are no guns. Therefore it is easy to start constructing the left hand side of a utility curve. :D

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:22 am

On the correlations.

Interesting results. In the end I did three correlations.

1. For all 50 states, the result was close enough to that posted by Xouper on his graph. No meaningful correlation.

BUT ......
I noticed something very interesting.
I noticed that this included Washington DC as a state, which is pretty dubious, since it is just a government city. It also has a lot of criminal activity, and a high murder rate ( 24.2 killings per 100,000 people per year). This was clearly distorting results, and it is a scientifically accepted procedure to exclude outriders from correlations when a trend is sought. So I re did the correlation without DC.

2. Correlation of 0.172. Not highly impressive, but still a positive relationship between high ownership of guns and murder rate.

I noticed one more thing, when eyeballing the data. It was clear that anything over 30% gun ownership had little impact on murder rate. The murder rate dropped only when gun ownership fell to less than a third of the population. There were 12 data pairs left from 30% and down, and that is the minimum, so I did a third correlation for those 12 data pairs.

3. Correlation of the 12 states with ownership of guns 30% and below. 0.35

This final correlation is very potent. It shows that, when gun ownership gets below 30% then any reduction in gun ownership causes a drop in murder rate. It also indicates that, if more than 30% of the people own guns, that pushes the murder rate up seriously.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:26 am

Lance: you eyeballed that? Kudos.

You should publish...for those interested in facts.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:04 am

I have to admit, Bobbo, the eyeballing was easy. I had my list of states in order of gun ownership. Wyoming at the top with 60% gun ownership, and Hawaii at the end with 9%. It was easy to see that the last 12 states had a much stronger relationship between number of guns and number of murders.

It makes sense to me. If more than 30% of the population own guns, then all the nasty bastards, who might have a violent streak, will have a gun. That means that increasing gun ownership more than 30% (to the maximum of 60% ) is not going to have any real impact on murder rates, because all the possible murderers already have a gun. However, if you can get ownership of guns well below 30%, that means that most of the nasty beggars will not own a gun and the murder rate drops substantially. Hawaii with 9% gun ownership has a murder rate of 1.3 killings per 100,000 people per year. That strikes me as a great target to strive for, to get below the almost 5 killings per 100,000 people per year that is the average for the whole country.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:15 am

Let me add one more thing.
Xouper said, very correctly, that it is possible to lie with statistics. Yes it is. In more ways than one.

His graph of gun ownership over 50 states versus murder rate was a lie. It was a subtle lie. But nevertheless a lie. The author list was about 6 guys with Ph.D. qualifications. Very well educated and very smart dudes. So smart, it is impossible that they failed to see what I saw. So why did they not report what I reported ?

One piece of data I do NOT have, which would boost the correlation even more, is the ownership of hand guns. Not just guns overall, but hand guns, since most murders are not done with long guns.Imagine how high the correlation would be between hand gun ownership by state and murder rate by state. That would really knock Xoupers socks off !

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:44 am

I let this be my guiding light: "Truth has a liberal bias."

Applied: this means half the data provided by gun nuts is outright lies. The other half is dimwitted incompetency. Its unusual to see someone with xoupers abilities so deep into such misinformation and word play. he "should" stick to his strong suit: The Supremes support his abysmally self centered and childish position.

Pegged.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:31 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:On the correlations.

Interesting results. In the end I did three correlations.


Excellent. Could you post the list of numbers you used?

Lance Kennedy wrote:1. For all 50 states, the result was close enough to that posted by Xouper on his graph. No meaningful correlation.

BUT ......
I noticed something very interesting.
I noticed that this included Washington DC as a state, which is pretty dubious, since it is just a government city.


You can toss that one as an outlier and I wouldn't complain.


Lance Kennedy wrote:2. Correlation of 0.172. Not highly impressive, but still a positive relationship between high ownership of guns and murder rate.


That coefficient is way too low to be interpreted as a positive correlation. It's down in the mud with the "no correlation" group.


Lance Kennedy wrote:I noticed one more thing, when eyeballing the data.


Nothing wrong with eyeballing the scatter plot. If you know what to look for.


Lance Kennedy wrote:It was clear that anything over 30% gun ownership had little impact on murder rate. The murder rate dropped only when gun ownership fell to less than a third of the population. There were 12 data pairs left from 30% and down, and that is the minimum, so I did a third correlation for those 12 data pairs.

3. Correlation of the 12 states with ownership of guns 30% and below. 0.35

This final correlation is very potent.


It's better, but still weak. Certainly not "potent", whatever that means.

Nonetheless, it's an interesting observation.


Lance Kennedy wrote: It shows that, when gun ownership gets below 30% then any reduction in gun ownership causes a drop in murder rate. It also indicates that, if more than 30% of the people own guns, that pushes the murder rate up seriously.


From that correlation it is not possible to infer that is the cause. You need other information to make that determination.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:37 am

xouper wrote: From that correlation it is not possible to infer that is the cause. You need other information to make that determination.

Back to muddying up the discussion huh?

The correlation draws EXACTLY the correct inference of causation. As has been said repeatedly: inference... not proof. There is no amount of information that can "prove" anything causes anything.

You are transparently disingenuous. THAT proof..............see above...........and no doubt.............. below. If future behavior correlates to past behavior.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:40 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:. . . If more than 30% of the population own guns, then all the nasty bastards, who might have a violent streak, will have a gun. That means that increasing gun ownership more than 30% (to the maximum of 60% ) is not going to have any real impact on murder rates, because all the possible murderers already have a gun. However, if you can get ownership of guns well below 30%, that means that most of the nasty beggars will not own a gun and the murder rate drops substantially.


That's an interesting hypothesis. Do you have any thoughts on how one might go about testing it or gathering evidence to support it? While yer at it, as any diligent scientist ought do, also think of ways the hypothesis can be refuted. Also, how would you state the null hypothesis and what evidence would be sufficient to reject it?

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:49 am

Ha, ha.............good one. You are LOOKING AT THE EVIDENCE.
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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:50 am

Xouper

I did a fourth correlation. Admittedly, it is a bit of a cheat, but still interesting. At 30% gun ownership, the state of New Hampshire was another outrider, having only 1.1 murders per 100,000 people per year. In fact, it is the lowest in the USA. If I exclude that from the last correlation, I am working with only 11 data pairs, which is not quite kosher, but only a very minor cheat. Then I am correlating the 11 states that have less than 30% gun ownership, and the correlation coefficient jumps to 0.76.

I think that the relationship between lower murder rates and lower gun ownership is very hard to deny, when there are fewer than 30% of the population owning guns. Over 30% and it makes little difference, because any potential murderer is able to make sure he has a gun.

Add to that the strong correlations among the advanced western nations with the data pairs of gun ownership and murder rate, and the other similar correlation I obtained for the OECD nations (excluding drug crime ridden Mexico), and the case is very strong. Higher gun ownership correlates with higher murder rates, at least when total gun ownership is lower than 30%.

I freely admit that this does not apply when dealing with less advanced nations, where murder rates are frequently high for a range of other reasons. The nations where it does apply includes all of western Europe, North America, Australasia, and the advanced Asian trio (Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore).

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:52 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Let me add one more thing.
Xouper said, very correctly, that it is possible to lie with statistics. Yes it is. In more ways than one.


Agreed. Have you read the book?


Lance Kennedy wrote:His graph of gun ownership over 50 states versus murder rate was a lie. It was a subtle lie. But nevertheless a lie. The author list was about 6 guys with Ph.D. qualifications. Very well educated and very smart dudes. So smart, it is impossible that they failed to see what I saw. So why did they not report what I reported ?


I can think of a very good reason. What you reported about the bottom 12 states is called cherry-picking, in that you intentionally looked for a subset of the data that fit your narrative.

But there is something else fishy about the chart I posted that I have been waiting to see if anyone noticed. But rather than keep y'all in suspense, I'll just say the data are for all homicides, not just for homicides with a gun.

But that doesn't really matter since the lack of correlation doesn't change upon removing non-gun homicides. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, because you would not expect non-gun homicides to have any correlation to the number of guns. Or to say it another way, if removing the non-gun homicides resulted in a stronger correlation, then that is because there is also a correlation between guns and non-homicides. Just sayin'.


Lance Kennedy wrote:One piece of data I do NOT have, which would boost the correlation even more, is the ownership of hand guns. Not just guns overall, but hand guns, since most murders are not done with long guns.Imagine how high the correlation would be between hand gun ownership by state and murder rate by state. That would really knock Xoupers socks off !


That's an interesting hypothesis, but consider what it means if the correlation got stronger by removing long guns. It would mean there is also an inverse correlation between long guns and handgun murders. Explain that!!

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:04 am

To Xouper

On my hypothesis that the murder rate stabilised when gun ownership is above 30% due to the fact that the nasty bastards are able to get guns in that situation of lesser gun control.

I am not the person to run such a test, since I am not American, and I lack the resources to do work above and beyond a little number crunching. You would need a less restrictive research environment, in which government funds were available to study gun issues, even if the result might be interpreted as implying better gun control was needed. A research team could then find out, state by state, how high the hand gun ownership was, and how many of those hand gun owners had a history of violence.

The USA strongly needs better data. That means a more rational approach to gathering data. If the level of hand gun ownership could be determined, then conclusions could be drawn. Sadly, this would require a change of mind by politicians who are firmly in the back pocket of the gun manufacturers.

Your suggestion that the graph being based on all homicides, not just gun homicides, may make a difference, is not very helpful. Since two thirds of American homicides are done with guns, any correlation will hold for both gun homicides and all homicides. The only difference is that the correlation will be slightly lower for all homicides. You may note that my correlations were also done with all homicides. Not just gun homicides.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:04 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Xouper

I did a fourth correlation. Admittedly, it is a bit of a cheat, but still interesting. At 30% gun ownership, the state of New Hampshire was another outrider, having only 1.1 murders per 100,000 people per year. In fact, it is the lowest in the USA. If I exclude that from the last correlation, I am working with only 11 data pairs, which is not quite kosher, but only a very minor cheat.


Using only 11 is not much of a cheat. The so-called "confidence level" drops a little but not enough to matter in this case, in my opinion. I don't object. There is no hard and fast rule about the number of samples. Some people say less than 30 is insufficient, but you only have 12 or 11, so that's what you work with.


Lance Kennedy wrote: Then I am correlating the 11 states that have less than 30% gun ownership, and the correlation coefficient jumps to 0.76.


Can you post the list of numbers you are using? Thanks.

If tossing a single data point results in a difference that large in the coefficient, then I renew my objection to that kind of cherry-picking. You are deliberately tossing out a data point that you know ahead of time weakens the correlation, even if you didn't know by how much.


Lance Kennedy wrote:I think that the relationship between lower murder rates and lower gun ownership is very hard to deny, when there are fewer than 30% of the population owning guns. Over 30% and it makes little difference, because any potential murderer is able to make sure he has a gun.


As I said previously, it is premature to declare you have found the cause. More information is needed to make that determination. At this point, your hypothesis is still merely speculation.

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Re: American guns on dark web.

Postby xouper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:18 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:To Xouper

On my hypothesis that the murder rate stabilised when gun ownership is above 30% due to the fact that the nasty bastards are able to get guns in that situation of lesser gun control.


That hypothesis is the very thing you are trying to demonstrate.

(Please note: I do not require "proof", I do not say you need to "prove" it, but rather it suffices to get what scientists call "confirming evidence". A correlation by itself is not confirming evidence.)

So far your hypothesis is still only a conjecture, a hypothesis to be tested, which has not yet been tested.

Although I confess it is an interesting hypothesis.

However, I must also state, that even if your hypothesis has confirming evidence, I would still not agree to any laws or restrictions that would coercively reduce gun ownership below 30 percent. I would instead lobby for an alternate solution that does not punish law-abiding citizens.


Lance Kennedy wrote:The USA strongly needs better data.


OK, sure, no objection to that.


Lance Kennedy wrote:Your suggestion that the graph being based on all homicides, not just gun homicides, may make a difference, is not very helpful. Since two thirds of American homicides are done with guns, any correlation will hold for both gun homicides and all homicides. The only difference is that the correlation will be slightly lower for all homicides. You may note that my correlations were also done with all homicides. Not just gun homicides.


OK, then we are in agreement on that point. I was going to post a graph of the 50 states with only gun homicides, but the scatter plot looks almost exactly the same as for all homicides. So we are good on that point.


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