Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:56 am

Well, as I have always said, I think Earth may well be unusual or even unique, so I agree with Usual Suspect on that.

I was reading a science based article recently, which said that our solar system shows signs that it may have been close to a supernova at its inception. As many here know, novas and supernovas generate high atomic weight elements. The question that occurs to me is how many star systems have those elements due to having been close to a nova/supernova? If such influence is rare, that may make the development of life rare also, due to lack of heavy elements.

Another article I was reading described the findings of the Kepler exoplanet search, and listed only two planets out of the thousands it had found that were near Earth size and within the liquid water belt around their star. When you start considering all the factors that are needed to permit both abiogenesis and evolution to form advanced life, the combination of all such factors may be rare indeed.

If each necessary factor is found in one star system in ten (as an overall average), and there are 12 such factors, that means one Earth like planet in 100 large galaxies.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Usual Suspect » Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:01 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Well, as I have always said, I think Earth may well be unusual or even unique, so I agree with Usual Suspect on that. I was reading a science based article recently, which said that our solar system shows signs that it may have been close to a supernova at its inception...

The theory is that our solar system in it's entirety, not just Earth, but the Sun too, was formed out of the remnants of a supernova. Given the age of the universe, probably many stars have been formed this way, but that doesn't necessarily make Earth any less unique. I ran across your post about the Rare Earth Theory. That is very much what I was trying to get across.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:38 pm

We don't have enough information to confirm that or even encourage it.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby scrmbldggs » Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:24 pm

And especially not encourage the deluded kind... :roll:


(But are all the other "almosts" failed experiments and prototypes? :heh:)

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gord » Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:12 pm

Usual Suspect wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:Well, as I have always said, I think Earth may well be unusual or even unique, so I agree with Usual Suspect on that. I was reading a science based article recently, which said that our solar system shows signs that it may have been close to a supernova at its inception...

The theory is that our solar system in it's entirety, not just Earth, but the Sun too, was formed out of the remnants of a supernova. Given the age of the universe, probably many stars have been formed this way....

Yes, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_p ... _III_stars for more information.

Basically, the first stars formed from hydrogen, which was the dominant element of the universe at the time. Nuclear reactions within those stars formed denser elements, which were dispersed when the stars exploded as supernovae. The second "generation" of stars formed from those remnants, and nuclear reactions with them created even more denser elements, which again were dispersed when the stars exploded as supernovae. Now we have the third "generation" of stars, which (along with the planets that formed around them) are rich in heavy metals.

Also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_form ... _nurseries
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:24 pm

Gord wrote:Basically, the first stars formed from hydrogen, which was the dominant element of the universe at the time. Nuclear reactions within those stars formed denser elements, which were dispersed when the stars exploded as supernovae. The second "generation" of stars formed from those remnants, and nuclear reactions with them created even more denser elements, which again were dispersed when the stars exploded as supernovae. Now we have the third "generation" of stars, which (along with the planets that formed around them) are rich in heavy metals.


The Charlie Sheen Stellar Luminosity Effect
I get what you are saying.

So.......... by the fourth generation there will be a star so dense that even Charlie Sheen will look intelligent, in comparison.
:D

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gord » Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:19 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Gord wrote:Basically, the first stars formed from hydrogen, which was the dominant element of the universe at the time. Nuclear reactions within those stars formed denser elements, which were dispersed when the stars exploded as supernovae. The second "generation" of stars formed from those remnants, and nuclear reactions with them created even more denser elements, which again were dispersed when the stars exploded as supernovae. Now we have the third "generation" of stars, which (along with the planets that formed around them) are rich in heavy metals.


The Charlie Sheen Stellar Luminosity Effect
I get what you are saying.

So.......... by the fourth generation there will be a star so dense that even Charlie Sheen will look intelligent, in comparison.
:D

(I used the term "generation" improperly, so I put it in quotes. Astronomers talk instead about populations of types I, II, and III -- there might be more than one generation of stars in a population, or there might not, or there could be a mixture.)

Populations of stars were identified based on the amount of metals they contained, and weren't originally intended to discuss the ages of the stars. That's just how it ended up working out. It turned out that populations go backwards time-wise, so population III consisted of the earliest stars, and population I is the most recently formed stars. Population IV stars would be from before the universe formed, and I don't think anyone's going to need to come up with that term. Maybe they'll need to created a population 0 category, or even negative categories. That would be weird. I'm sure they'd just throw out the entire classification system and replace it with something that worked better.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:59 am

Which is all great. But the reference I originally quoted was talking of a much more recent supernova. That is, just before the formation of the solar system, which happened 5 to 4.5 billion years ago. The recent supernova seems to be the first unique feature of our solar system, and may have contributed to many other forms of uniqueness.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gord » Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:11 am

5 to 4.5 billions years ago is a third of the age of the universe.

The youngest population I stars are call extreme population I stars: http://www.daviddarling.info/encycloped ... _star.html . Our Sun is an intermediate population I star, meaning that it is an older population I star, about average in terms of age.

All population I stars are formed from clouds of gas and dust formed from the remains of previous stars (ie., supernovae remnants). From the sources I've found with a quick online search, intermediate population I stars are generally between 200 million and 10 billion years old while extreme population stars are generally between 1 million and 100 million years old. (The gap of 100 million years is a bit off-putting. Maybe I should dig out my old astronomy books instead of relying on seemingly disparate websites. :glare: )
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:46 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Gnostic Bishop wrote:Our actions and choice of what some term, Harm/Care, are basically universal to any creature that has instincts.

Weasel wording noted.


You show your lack of education as most see that term as just another way of saying that reciprocity is fair play or even a way to express the golden rule.

Perhaps this will help you with new terms.

http://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt ... anguage=en

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:51 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:GB

There is absolutely zero reason to believe any alien might have ethics in the least bit similar to our own. If you are accosted by a tiger here on Earth, that is hungry enough to eat you, try using your 'logic' on it!

An alien would be even more different. Our hypothetical alien might be a total predator with no qualms whatever about wiping out our entire species, or even sterilising planet Earth of all life so that it can remake it to suit itself. Or the alien might be saintly in its caring. We do not know, and we cannot know.


Evolution is what drives morals and ethics.

To think that another species would go against it's own evolutionary programming, --- that defaults to doing good to others, --- as that is the best survival tactic, --- is rather droll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIc-4h9RIvY

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:57 pm

Gnostic Bishop wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Gnostic Bishop wrote:Our actions and choice of what some term, Harm/Care, are basically universal to any creature that has instincts.

Weasel wording noted.


You show your lack of education as most see that term as just another way of saying that reciprocity is fair play or even a way to express the golden rule.

Perhaps this will help you with new terms.

http://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt ... anguage=en

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DL
Yeah, I aren't got no edgymucashun atall.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:02 pm

Usual Suspect wrote:The Subject here is loaded from the start. Who exactly are the "We" and what kind of contact is being assumed? The rest of the OP goes on to make a bunch of assumptions about what the aliens, if they are aware of our world, think of us. It assumes the aliens have human values and are motivated by some sort of unity of peace between inhabited worlds, like some sort of Federation of Planets, and that we're too immature and insignificant as a species to bother coming all the way here for.
esearch.


I snipped all your assumption.

Who do you think I mean when I say "we", if not us, as in mankind?

What are you thinking when I say contact, if not the usual methods?

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:02 pm

Oops

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:12 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Gnostic Bishop wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Gnostic Bishop wrote:Our actions and choice of what some term, Harm/Care, are basically universal to any creature that has instincts.

Weasel wording noted.


You show your lack of education as most see that term as just another way of saying that reciprocity is fair play or even a way to express the golden rule.

Perhaps this will help you with new terms.

http://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt ... anguage=en

Regards
DL
Yeah, I aren't got no edgymucashun atall.


It shows and you do not seem to care.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:29 pm

Yep, I don't give a dead dog's {!#%@} about what you think of me.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:01 am

Gnostic Bishop wrote: Evolution is what drives morals and ethics.
I think the better expression would be
"The unique nature of an individual species' evolution, defines its behaviour"

Gnostic Bishop wrote:To think that another species would go against it's own evolutionary programming, --- that defaults to doing good to others, --- as that is the best survival tactic, --- is rather droll.

I don't think you have fully grasped the concept of evolution yet. Evolution does not have goals. It is that simple.

One of the most successful form of life on Earth is viruses. Viruses kill their hosts. In evolutionary terms, viruses kill their hosts at slower rates so they can breed more viruses to find another host to kill. There is no reason to think that other alien species will not also use this model. Ethics and morals are loose arbitrary descriptions that are subsets of Behaviour

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:11 am

viruses in different stages are useful- as Seth point out- belladonna in small doses can heal...
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:22 am

gorgeous wrote:viruses in different stages are useful- as Seth point out- belladonna in small doses can heal...

Belladonna, commonly known as deadly nightshade, isn't a virus, you idiot. It's a plant.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:28 am

I know...just as viruses serve a positive purpose at certain stages...
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:15 am

gorgeous wrote:I know...just as viruses serve a positive purpose at certain stages...

List the positive purpose of viruses. (You can't can you?) :lol:

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:28 am

cause cellular changes that are needed
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:34 am

gorgeous wrote:cause cellular changes that are needed

What cellular changes? Viruses take over another species host cells to produce more of the virus species.

Give a clear example of what you are claiming.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:35 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Yep, I don't give a dead dog's {!#%@} about what you think of me.


Yes I know.
It is quite apparent that you do not have a good sense of self esteem or you would not do what you do.

But hey, if you wish to remain a mental midget, have at it.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:47 am

Seth------ Some
viruses have great therapeutic value. The physical body will often let down its
own barriers to these, knowing they will counteract certain others that are not
beneficial at the time.
So-called harmful viruses are ever-present within the body. You are very
rarely vulnerable to any but a small percentage, though you cam within you
traces of the most deadly of them all of the time. Viruses themselves undergo
transformations completely unsuspected by medical men.--------------------------------So viruses can be beneficial or deadly according to the condition,
state, and needs of the body at any given time. It is known that one disease
can often cure another; sometimes, left alone, an individual will go
from a serious disease through a series of less severe ones that are
seemingly unrelated to the original problem.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:48 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:[
quote="Gnostic Bishop"] Evolution is what drives morals and ethics.
I think the better expression would be
"The unique nature of an individual species' evolution, defines its behaviour"


Thanks. That is a good way to say it but I do not see any particular unique nature in any of our species. Man, for instance, follows the pattern of weak creatures at birth. That is why we are so altruistic and good to each other. Generally speaking of course.

Gnostic Bishop wrote:To think that another species would go against it's own evolutionary programming, --- that defaults to doing good to others, --- as that is the best survival tactic, --- is rather droll.

I don't think you have fully grasped the concept of evolution yet. Evolution does not have goals. It is that simple.


It has not set a goal. Only a sentient being can do such, but the survival of the fittest is what evolution produces for whatever environment is at hand. That can be seen as evolutions goal or raison d'être.

One of the most successful form of life on Earth is viruses. Viruses kill their hosts. In evolutionary terms, viruses kill their hosts at slower rates so they can breed more viruses to find another host to kill. There is no reason to think that other alien species will not also use this model. Ethics and morals are loose arbitrary descriptions that are subsets of Behaviour [/quote]

I thought we were talking of intelligent beings and not brainless viruses. You have been watching the Alien series I bet.

Can a virus drive a space ship?

I kind of doubt it.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:05 am

Gnostic Bishop wrote:Thanks. That is a good way to say it but I do not see any particular unique nature in any of our species. Man, for instance, follows the pattern of weak creatures at birth. That is why we are so altruistic and good to each other. Generally speaking of course.
Fair enough. I also think the hard evidence is that homo sapiens have evolved innate behaviours that shy away from killing and Equity Theory in Behaviour, that means we share things with other humans in the hope of getting something back.


Matthew Ellard wrote:I don't think you have fully grasped the concept of evolution yet. Evolution does not have goals. It is that simple.
Gnostic Bishop wrote:It has not set a goal. Only a sentient being can do such, but the survival of the fittest is what evolution produces for whatever environment is at hand. That can be seen as evolutions goal or raison d'être.
No. Survival of the fittest is not a guiding factor in evolution. The disease Sickle Cell anemia, is a classic example. It reduces oxygen uptake but reduces susceptibility to Malaria. Evolution is all about trade offs.

Gnostic Bishop wrote:I thought we were talking of intelligent beings and not brainless viruses. You have been watching the Alien series I bet.
Again, intelligence is not a goal of evolution. Migrating birds have evolved reduced intelligence, as a trade off for less weight and oxygen use, to allow for longer sustained flight.

Gnostic Bishop wrote:Can a virus drive a space ship?
Viruses don't need a spaceship as they don't need oxygen. That is their trade-off successful evolutionary strategy.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:18 am

ALL HAIL OUR NEW VIRUS OVERLORDS!!
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby scrmbldggs » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:31 am

I had an inkling... you've got kitties, georgie, don'tcha.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:35 am

To GB

Evolution can have many outcomes. It can produce a gentle species like the bonobos (although they are raging sex maniacs), or vicious ones like chimpanzees. There is absolutely no reason to think that alien evolution will generate a species that is loving and caring to other sapient beings. Evolution can produce an intelligent predator that simply treats other species as food. Why not?

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:38 am

scrmbldggs wrote:I had an inkling... you've got kitties, georgie, don'tcha.

-----huh? cats?
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:39 am

scrmbldggs wrote:I had an inkling... you've got kitties, georgie, don'tcha.
I hope so. If Gorgeous's cat could take over Gorgeous's forum account, we'd probably get more coherent posts.

Meanwhile the other members of the Skeptic Society Forum keep posting away......
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby scrmbldggs » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:42 am

:hmm: :lol:



gorgeous wrote:
scrmbldggs wrote:I had an inkling... you've got kitties, georgie, don'tcha.

-----huh? cats?

Yerp. And perhaps this... :kit:

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby gorgeous » Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:51 am

have none now, yes in past, why did you think I have cats?
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Austin Harper » Wed Dec 07, 2016 3:16 am

The users here are a case of parallel evolution.
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gord » Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:46 am

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:32 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:[
quote="Gnostic Bishop"]Thanks. That is a good way to say it but I do not see any particular unique nature in any of our species. Man, for instance, follows the pattern of weak creatures at birth. That is why we are so altruistic and good to each other. Generally speaking of course.
Fair enough. I also think the hard evidence is that homo sapiens have evolved innate behaviours that shy away from killing and Equity Theory in Behaviour, that means we share things with other humans in the hope of getting something back.


Indeed. Our selfish gene pushes us to take the best route to survival. Altruism is a good way to make friends and that means that the fittest in that will perhaps be the fittest human.

Matthew Ellard wrote:I don't think you have fully grasped the concept of evolution yet. Evolution does not have goals. It is that simple.
Gnostic Bishop wrote:It has not set a goal. Only a sentient being can do such, but the survival of the fittest is what evolution produces for whatever environment is at hand. That can be seen as evolutions goal or raison d'être.
No. Survival of the fittest is not a guiding factor in evolution. The disease Sickle Cell anemia, is a classic example. It reduces oxygen uptake but reduces susceptibility to Malaria. Evolution is all about trade offs.

Indeed, but it is all put there to select the fittest of our species.

If that is not the guiding factor of evolution, then what do you think is?

Gnostic Bishop wrote:I thought we were talking of intelligent beings and not brainless viruses. You have been watching the Alien series I bet.
Again, intelligence is not a goal of evolution. Migrating birds have evolved reduced intelligence, as a trade off for less weight and oxygen use, to allow for longer sustained flight.


Yet our intelligence has made us the top of the food chain and allow for our best and brightest to rise to the top.

Gnostic Bishop wrote:Can a virus drive a space ship?
Viruses don't need a spaceship as they don't need oxygen. That is their trade-off successful evolutionary strategy. [/quote]

Then they are not worthy of the issue that the O.P. speaks to.

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Gnostic Bishop » Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:37 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:To GB

Evolution can have many outcomes. It can produce a gentle species like the bonobos (although they are raging sex maniacs), or vicious ones like chimpanzees. There is absolutely no reason to think that alien evolution will generate a species that is loving and caring to other sapient beings. Evolution can produce an intelligent predator that simply treats other species as food. Why not?


An intelligent predator would likely have just taken us over as their technology would dwarf ours.

Evolution is clear in that the survival of the fittest would create an altruistic attitude as it is the best for survival.

Regards
DL

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TJrandom
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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby TJrandom » Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:21 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:
scrmbldggs wrote:I had an inkling... you've got kitties, georgie, don'tcha.
I hope so. If Gorgeous's cat could take over Gorgeous's forum account, we'd probably get more coherent posts.

Meanwhile the other members of the Skeptic Society Forum keep posting away......
Cat 3.jpgCat 2.jpgCat 1.jpeg


Oh, you did mean cats... initially I thought you meant cooties, not kitties. :)

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Re: Why we have yet to be contacted by aliens.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:52 pm

GB

Altruism is not even universal among our own species. It is seriously naive to believe that an intelligent alien must be altruistic towards other sapient species. If such a predatory and exploitive species reached Earth, then we probably would never have evolved in the first place. The fact that there is no sign of such a species (or any intelligent alien) reaching Earth probably means they did not. The fact that, even at sub light speeds, it would take an expansionist species no more than a few million years to totally colonise the entire galaxy, and that the galaxy has been around for more than 8 billion years, suggests that such alien species are very rare.


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