Where are the aliens?

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby OlegTheBatty » Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:46 pm

JO 753 wrote:Not everybody, so you cant rite 'we'.

No? It looks like a 'we' to me.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby JO 753 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:59 pm

It will derez soon. The Proper English immune system bilt into the interweb will detect, attak and dizolv it, leaving an ugly scar.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby JO 753 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:00 pm

SEE? Its happening to 'cant' alredy!
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:11 pm

WTF?
When my son had his barmitzvah, and his wedding, there was no family whatsoever -that’s the way the second and third generation feel the Holocaust, they miss their family. My son hasn’t experienced a family life –having uncles, aunts, grandmothers, grandfathers. There is just that hole.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:23 pm

JO 753 wrote:Not everybody, so you cant rite 'we'.

I was working with the subgroup "Rational People". :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby JO 753 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:43 pm

No such group exists. (unless you include non human speciez)
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:45 pm

I'm rational, I usually ignore your posts.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby JO 753 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:05 pm

See? Youre a jiant lizard.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:30 pm

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Oh, but there's a "very good chance" some intelligent, spacefaring race has violated the laws of physics as we know them and are on their way here as we speak.

You keep going back to this "violate the laws of physics" thing. What are you talking about? Interstellar travel is possible at sub-light speeds.

The speculative parts of the Drake equation are the development of intelligent life. I'm just not ready to claim special status simply because we have no evidence to the contrary. That's contradictory anyway. You have to simultaneously say we are extremely unlikely and that we have no way of knowing how likely we are. If we had come into the space age in a future universe, where the galaxies have spread out so far from each other that no possible telescope could see another galaxy, then you'd have good evidence of being unique. You'd be wrong with respect to galaxy uniqueness, but your philosophy would be consistent with what you observe.

If they're more than a hundred light years away they wouldn't be coming here because they thought there was intelligent life here. And any other reason is simply speculation.

And when the {!#%@} did I talk about "Galaxy uniqueness", please.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Aidan » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:34 pm

I thought the whole point was starving him to death?

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:47 pm

The Drake equation, of course, is a load of bulldust.
The reason for that, is that it contains variables for which we have absolutely no idea what values to put in. Thus, any result from the equation is no more than pure guesswork.

For example, what percentage of planets have life? We do not know.
What percentage of planets with life have intelligent life? We do not know.
How long does the average civilisation lat? We do not know.

Etc. Etc.

Until we can gather more data, the equation is total crap.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:54 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:The Drake equation, of course, is a load of bulldust.

The very question it's based on, "If there are aliens, where are they?" is stupid. The Universe is mumble light years across. That's BIG. Even FINDING us would be an astounding bit of luck.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:08 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:The Drake equation, of course, is a load of bulldust.

The very question it's based on, "If there are aliens, where are they?" is stupid. The Universe is mumble light years across. That's BIG. Even FINDING us would be an astounding bit of luck.

And yet . . . every day someone wins a lottery.

If there are enough alien civilizations, inevitably someone will find us (or we will find someone once we start sending probes out of the solar system - if we ever do).

Of coarse, if they take too long, it might be the termite civilization they find.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:31 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:The Drake equation, of course, is a load of bulldust.

The very question it's based on, "If there are aliens, where are they?" is stupid. The Universe is mumble light years across. That's BIG. Even FINDING us would be an astounding bit of luck.

And yet . . . every day someone wins a lottery.
Not every day. And the odds are YOU or I will never win it.
If there are enough alien civilizations, inevitably someone will find us (or we will find someone once we start sending probes out of the solar system - if we ever do).
"inevitably"? Nothing inevitable about it.
Of coarse, if they take too long, it might be the termite civilization they find.
And so they won't matter to us.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:39 pm

Gawd

The thing that is bigger than the universe is the result of any equation that deals with exponential growth. Population growth is a prime example. If an alien civilisation doubles its population every hundred years, how long before it overpopulates the galaxy? Every thousand years, it increases by a factor of 1,000 TIMES. In less than a million years, there will be enough beings to overpopulate every star system. Of course, no species will be able to travel to other star systems that quickly. But speed of travel becomes the dominant limiting factor. If star ships are sent out at one tenth of light speed in all directions, to colonise other star sysems, then it would be possible to colonise and overpopulate the entire galaxy in less than a million years. Since the average life span of a species here on Earth is a million years, that makes it possible for an alien to totally colonise and overpopulate our galaxy.

Fermi was aware of this when he created the Fermi Paradox. "Where are they?"

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:42 pm

You assume no disasters or wars, I see.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:52 pm

Not at all.

Here were plenty of disasters and wars for humanity in the 20th century, and our population grew at a lot more than a doubling in 100 years.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:14 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Not at all.

Here were plenty of disasters and wars for humanity in the 20th century, and our population grew at a lot more than a doubling in 100 years.

And we've only had serious technology for less than 100 years. We'll have plenty of time to destroy ourselves if an NEO doesn't lose it's N status.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:29 pm

If you look at recent developments, Gawd, you will see that peace is becoming the habit. There has been no major war affecting Western Europe in the last 75 years. This is unique. Never in history before has there been a war hiatus lasting more than a year or two. Admitted, the American administration seems hell bent on getting into minor wars in third world countries, but that is a special case. The government of the USA is insane compared to other western governments.

The long term trend is a slow reduction in wars and the number of people killed in wars. The only major one currently is Syria.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:58 pm

"Peace is becoming a habit." LOL
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:23 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:"Peace is becoming a habit." LOL


Since you are American, I understand your hilarity. Believe it or not, for non Americans, who generally have governments that are sane, the amount of war is actually diminishing. Deaths in war are now a lot less than 100,000 per year, and that is over a number of small civil wars. Even half way through the 20th Century, it was hundreds of thousands per year. The trend is heading in the right direction.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:53 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:"Peace is becoming a habit." LOL


Since you are American, I understand your hilarity. Believe it or not, for non Americans, who generally have governments that are sane, the amount of war is actually diminishing. Deaths in war are now a lot less than 100,000 per year, and that is over a number of small civil wars. Even half way through the 20th Century, it was hundreds of thousands per year. The trend is heading in the right direction.

I'm a {!#%@} historian, Lance. Nationality has nothing to do with, so don't try to derail.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Sep 28, 2016 11:04 pm

Works both ways, Gawd.

You make fun of my peace statement, and I will make derision of America's war record.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby scrmbldggs » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:39 am

Aidan wrote:I thought the whole point was starving him to death?


No reason. Just thought I drop the newb right here.

Hi Aidan. :-P
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Lard, save me from your followers.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:41 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Works both ways, Gawd.

You make fun of my peace statement, and I will make derision of America's war record.

And I made no mention of the US war records, but rather cited the HUMAN war records. You may continue to think provincial, I'll still go with the big picture.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby TJrandom » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:53 am

If you add up the deaths that Wiki shows in the top 17 (out of 26 conflicts), deaths in 2015 were over 170,956. So I suspect that the total would be closer to 200k, but certainly less than in the past. The real question would be whether this will continue, or whether we will face another larger conflict - maybe with Russia in Europe, or North Korea or China in Asia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_o ... _conflicts

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:56 am

TJrandom wrote:If you add up the deaths that Wiki shows in the top 17 (out of 26 conflicts), deaths in 2015 were over 170,956. So I suspect that the total would be closer to 200k, but certainly less than in the past. The real question would be whether this will continue, or whether we will face another larger conflict - maybe with Russia in Europe, or North Korea or China in Asia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_o ... _conflicts

It's roughly cyclic. We expected a large war every twenty years for centuries. There were "dry spells", but they didn't last.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:42 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:It's roughly cyclic. We expected a large war every twenty years for centuries. There were "dry spells", but they didn't last.


Stephen Pinker in his book on the history of violence says the exact opposite. He cites a number of studies to show that wars are not in any way cyclic. Each one is separate and individual and driven by its own causes. We are now in the Long Peace, unique in history, and there has not been a war on the territory of any western country in 75 years. Yugoslavia and Ukraine come closest, but were Soviet satellites, and thus not classified as western.

INstead we see "brush wars". Tiny affairs compared to the big wars of the past. The last war to kill more than a million people was Viet Nam. Most of the wars today are civil wars. Most are in impoverished third world countries.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby ElectricMonk » Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:10 am

I would be more concerned if there were no conflicts at all in which the major powers are involved in: like tectonic plates, stress between great military powers can reach unhealthy levels if not acted upon just a little from time to time - WW 1 was an example.
And just like WW1, the danger does not come from the major players, but the smaller hanger-ons, like North Korea, Syria, Turkey, Ukraine.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:43 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:It's roughly cyclic. We expected a large war every twenty years for centuries. There were "dry spells", but they didn't last.


Stephen Pinker in his book on the history of violence says the exact opposite. He cites a number of studies to show that wars are not in any way cyclic. Each one is separate and individual and driven by its own causes. We are now in the Long Peace, unique in history, and there has not been a war on the territory of any western country in 75 years. Yugoslavia and Ukraine come closest, but were Soviet satellites, and thus not classified as western.

INstead we see "brush wars". Tiny affairs compared to the big wars of the past. The last war to kill more than a million people was Viet Nam. Most of the wars today are civil wars. Most are in impoverished third world countries.

Okay then.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:43 am

ElectricMonk wrote:I would be more concerned if there were no conflicts at all in which the major powers are involved in: like tectonic plates, stress between great military powers can reach unhealthy levels if not acted upon just a little from time to time - WW 1 was an example.
And just like WW1, the danger does not come from the major players, but the smaller hanger-ons, like North Korea, Syria, Turkey, Ukraine.

"War by proxy" is the term you're looking for.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby ElectricMonk » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:17 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:"War by proxy" is the term you're looking for.


No, I would rather call it "War by the proxies ":
When you are under the umbrella of one of the big powers you might feel yourself free to pursue local, not geopolitically important violent redrawing of the map.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:25 am

ElectricMonk wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:"War by proxy" is the term you're looking for.


No, I would rather call it "War by the proxies ":
When you are under the umbrella of one of the big powers you might feel yourself free to pursue local, not geopolitically important violent redrawing of the map.

Same difference.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:06 pm

I would rather see the great powers evolve socially to the point where they do not feel the need to indulge in war. I need not tell the people here that wars are totally unnecessary and utterly damaging. Why go to war at all?

Wars were most common in human history when everyone was a part of a small tribe. Tribes fought each other. Modern tribal societies have a horrendous death rate in male on male conflict between tribes. Up to 20% of the male population in such tribes as the Amazon Yanomomo are known to die each generation in such conflict.

OVer the thousands of years since our ancestors lived this way, the death toll in war on a per capita basis has kept dropping, and today it is at the lowest it has ever been. Why stop now? Getting truly socially advanced means no war.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Angel » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:48 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:I would rather see the great powers evolve socially to the point where they do not feel the need to indulge in war. I need not tell the people here that wars are totally unnecessary and utterly damaging. Why go to war at all?

Wars were most common in human history when everyone was a part of a small tribe. Tribes fought each other. Modern tribal societies have a horrendous death rate in male on male conflict between tribes. Up to 20% of the male population in such tribes as the Amazon Yanomomo are known to die each generation in such conflict.

OVer the thousands of years since our ancestors lived this way, the death toll in war on a per capita basis has kept dropping, and today it is at the lowest it has ever been. Why stop now? Getting truly socially advanced means no war.


I prefer no wars but this society
takes away all rights in order
to obtain a peaceful state of being.
Sedate them with pot first.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:59 pm

Angel wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:I would rather see the great powers evolve socially to the point where they do not feel the need to indulge in war. I need not tell the people here that wars are totally unnecessary and utterly damaging. Why go to war at all?

Wars were most common in human history when everyone was a part of a small tribe. Tribes fought each other. Modern tribal societies have a horrendous death rate in male on male conflict between tribes. Up to 20% of the male population in such tribes as the Amazon Yanomomo are known to die each generation in such conflict.

OVer the thousands of years since our ancestors lived this way, the death toll in war on a per capita basis has kept dropping, and today it is at the lowest it has ever been. Why stop now? Getting truly socially advanced means no war.


I prefer no wars but this society
takes away all rights in order
to obtain a peaceful state of being.
Sedate them with pot first.


I could get behind the pot thing.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby OlegTheBatty » Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:07 pm

Angel wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:I would rather see the great powers evolve socially to the point where they do not feel the need to indulge in war. I need not tell the people here that wars are totally unnecessary and utterly damaging. Why go to war at all?

Wars were most common in human history when everyone was a part of a small tribe. Tribes fought each other. Modern tribal societies have a horrendous death rate in male on male conflict between tribes. Up to 20% of the male population in such tribes as the Amazon Yanomomo are known to die each generation in such conflict.

OVer the thousands of years since our ancestors lived this way, the death toll in war on a per capita basis has kept dropping, and today it is at the lowest it has ever been. Why stop now? Getting truly socially advanced means no war.


I prefer no wars but this society
takes away all rights in order
to obtain a peaceful state of being.
Sedate them with pot first.

Rumor has it that Hassan I-Sabbah brainwashed his Fida'in using hashish before sending them off to kill enemy leaders etc. They were known as 'Hashashin', and is the source of the modern word 'assassin'.
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Lausten
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lausten » Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:56 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:"Peace is becoming a habit." LOL


Since you are American, I understand your hilarity. Believe it or not, for non Americans, who generally have governments that are sane, the amount of war is actually diminishing. Deaths in war are now a lot less than 100,000 per year, and that is over a number of small civil wars. Even half way through the 20th Century, it was hundreds of thousands per year. The trend is heading in the right direction.

Counting bodies does not really give you the whole picture. Ghengis Khan killed a lot of people, and that created trade routes where you could ride your camel loaded down with salt for long distances and not get bothered. Same goes for the Pax Romana. It only counts as "death by war" if some crazy band of rebels decides to take on the behemoth, otherwise it's "death by government", but neither one is "Peace" by any stretch of the imagination.

It's hard to fathom just how badass we are. No one acts like we do. Russia tried it. They flew their helicopters into little towns in Afghanistan and bombed with impunity, then we rode in on horseback and gave the locals shoulder launched missiles. And China, huh, we have 10 year old sons of millionaires and 400 pd bed ridden guys taking them on. I got your "peace" right here buddy.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:37 pm

Lausten.

Temujin (Ghengis Khan) is not a fit subject for comparison. He was a truly nasty and primitive person. Even in subjugated territories, he was known to wipe out entire cities, including mass death by torture.

How badass is the USA? Limiting my comments to the administration, and the military (not to ordinary decent people), the USA is pretty bad. It is the most warlike of all western nations, and it pretty much always makes matters worse when it goes to war. There are many alternatives to war, which are much to be preferred.

Take Afghanistan.
Dubya invaded more to gain electoral popularity at home than to actually achieve anything. The Taliban at the time were not really enemies of the USA, despite offering hospitality to Al Qaeda. The ordinary Afghani was not guilty at all. The only ones that needed to be punished were Al Qaeda, an international gang of murderers. Police action, not military action, was indicated. After all, police all around the world have eliminated such gangs. Even the Mafia are a shadow of their former self. The Taliban would probably not have cooperated, but there are ways around that. Just look at the way Osama bin Laden met his fate.

The war in Afghanistan did nothing to punish Al Qaeda, who just moved bases. In fact, Al Qaeda still exists, and has a number of radical Islamic spin off groups doing more harm than ever.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Postby Gord » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:29 pm

Aidan wrote:I thought the whole point was starving him to death?

Are you a computer program doing completely random things?
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