The end of the oil age.

Fun with supply and demand.
User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:53 am

http://www.energypost.eu/historic-momen ... on-bubble/

Saudi Arabia is selling oil like crazy, even though it is driving prices down. They think that they will never sell all their oil, because demand will die. They think the Oil Age will die, due to new technology such as battery electric cars, and renewable electricity, and not because of a lack of oil. Do you think this is true?

Matthew Ellard
Real Skeptic
Posts: 28533
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:31 am

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:21 am

No. Aviation fuel will always be required. I see no alternative solution to powering aircraft, coming up in the near future.

I know that aviation is only a tiny percentage of petrol consumption, but it is still going to be needed.

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:00 am

Matthew

There are oodles of research teams working on biofuels for aviation. Some have already propelled giant jet passenger aircraft.

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:28 am

I agree with Matt.

Altho biofuelz can substitute for kerosene, its going to be a long time till they are cheaper, if ever. And even tho there are electric aircraft now, I dont see them competing with jets for speed & size any time on the horizon. I think it will take antigravity or sum similarly huje revolutionary tek before jet aircraft powered by oil derived kerosene are outmoded.

But the ritingz on the wall for fuel powered carz.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

Matthew Ellard
Real Skeptic
Posts: 28533
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:31 am

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:31 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Matthew, There are oodles of research teams working on biofuels for aviation. Some have already propelled giant jet passenger aircraft.
You are spot on. Entertainingly, the same pre-War German process to make synthetic aviation fuel (for military security reasons ) is also being used by the USAF (for exactly the same military security reasons). However it is incredibly expensive.

"The EU estimates that the cost to construct and secure production, including plant and supply chain, is in the region of EUR3bn, added to which there is a further EUR3bn cost of the actual fuel above that of Jet Kerosene – equating to EUR1,500/tonne more than today’s price for regular jet fuel. Today, fuel costs below EUR700/tonne, so the EU estimate is that bio-jet will be almost three times that figure at over EUR2,000/tonne. Having seen the impact of fuel rising from USD35/barrel a decade ago to an average of USD120/barrel in recent times, the notion that the industry can survive a trebling of cost without a massive impact on demand seems highly implausible" (editorial from 2014)
http://www.aviationeconomics.com/NewsIt ... z4NMi.dpuf

I read a lot about German wartime use of synthetics ( synthetic rubber was an enormous problem for the Germans) . Unfortunately, as Germany was undergoing so many problems, you can't really economically make an opinion as to how effective the results with synthetic oils were.

Amazingly, the Germans go trucks running on wood (coal) gas. I chatted to a woman who stole a wood fueled truck in 1945 and she explained it took almost half an hour to get the thing working.
coal gas.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
gorgeous
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4854
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:25 pm

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby gorgeous » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:47 pm

keeping the oil industry is the goal..they already have tech that doesn't need it...
Science Fundamentalism...is exactly what happens when there’s a significant, perceived ideological threat to one’s traditions and identity.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 14676
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: bobbo da existential pragmatist

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:08 pm

I do think green petrochemical substitutes will be found and over time they will become quite cheap. Until that time, no reason not to produce the oil needed for such end products.

I only hope the Sauds are correct. Ha,ha....and meanwhile that dirty oil sands conglomerate is suing the USA for their Lost Profits in not being able to build a pipeline across our aquafers to sell the dirtiest carbon source there is. A plain reading of the trade agreement says they should win. the changing technology, the threat to the earth, the risk of damage to precious water resources, and the will of the American People: is irrelevant.

Lets all bow down to our Fossil Based Overlords.

Why is obama pushing this nonsense?
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:58 pm

Matthew

All new technologies are expensive to begin with. Battery electric cars are more expensive than the dirty internal combustion variety. But the principle is better, and I recently read an article in which it was predicted that the battery variety will be cheaper within 5 years.

Biofuels are expensive right now, but it is a new and undeveloped technology. There are some really interesting proposals. Ventner, for example, is working on synthetic microorganisms to manufacture hydrocarbon fuels. Give this ten years and see what happens to the costs!

nmblum88
Has More Than 7K Posts
Posts: 7815
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:28 pm

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby nmblum88 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:43 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Matthew

All new technologies are expensive to begin with. Battery electric cars are more expensive than the dirty internal combustion variety. But the principle is better, and I recently read an article in which it was predicted that the battery variety will be cheaper within 5 years.

Biofuels are expensive right now, but it is a new and undeveloped technology. There are some really interesting proposals. Ventner, for example, is working on synthetic microorganisms to manufacture hydrocarbon fuels. Give this ten years and see what happens to the costs!


Lance: have you looked into the experiments and inventions (including new patents in the US and Europe) that are concerned less with alternative fuel supplies for the airline industry as we'll as military aviation than they are with changes to aircraft/ automobile/industrial / agricultural engines themselves?
Engines that will not require the conventional fuel sources?

Isn't it more than probable that the future of oil dependency could be based on other factors than alternate fuel?
It is difficult to accept that the inventive inventive species that brought us the internal combustion engine, would, could, accept that the creativity ended with what now seems like ancient,, even obsolete, technology.
Surely the corruptibility of our military/industrial complex plays a factor in how and where and why our creativity is applied, still.... man is not really made to be satisfied with the status quo: we are a species that is identified by "adapt or die,"


NMB

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 03, 2016 11:18 pm

Norma

Alternatives are great, and many will be used. But there is no simple single solution, and so humanity will use battery powered cars, hydrogen powered machines, synthetic fuels, biofuels, nuclear power and so on. All will be required.

nmblum88
Has More Than 7K Posts
Posts: 7815
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:28 pm

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby nmblum88 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:45 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Norma

Alternatives are great, and many will be used. But there is no simple single solution, and so humanity will use battery powered cars, hydrogen powered machines, synthetic fuels, biofuels, nuclear power and so on. All will be required.


Not that it matters, Lance, the Forum-speak being what it is, but just for the record: I didn't say that there was one (simple or not) solution to our dependence on fossil fuels.
(And if there WERE one simple solution, I am fully aware that I am not to the one to pronounce union it.)

What I did say, is that the human species , in response to crisis, has always shown remarkable ingenuity for problem solving and technological inventiveness., for killing and saving, for destroying and reconfiguring in equal measure.
But more specifically that there is actually creative endeavor in progress that will influence not only the fuels we use, but what propels whatever vehicles we depend on for transport.
The internal combustion engine, indeed the engine itself, is no more sacrosanct than was the oar of the Vikings.

NMB

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:07 am

One new technology that would be great, if achieved, is high speed maglev trains. I know that Elon Musk is using his billions to develop such a system, which is supposed to link San Francisco and Los Angeles, with a transit time of barely more than half an hour. Such high speed transport can (in theory) move far more people at high speed than aircraft, and using electricity rather than fuel. In theory, though it would be difficult to engineer, such transport could even cross oceans, in great undersea tunnels. Once the initial capital costs are cleared, it would be much cheaper than air travel. Probably much safer, too. Perhaps in another 100 years, mass air transport might be obsolete.

Matthew Ellard
Real Skeptic
Posts: 28533
Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:31 am

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:18 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Matthew, All new technologies are expensive to begin with.


Fair enough. I was limiting myself to aircraft as that was what I knew most about. In that case, the need for military aviation fuel reserves security will probably contribute to research as much as commercial interest.

Pragmatically, from explosives and rocket fuel, which contain their own oxygen, I think there is probably a maximum limit to how efficient any future alternative fuel can be.

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:21 am

Therez alwayz peepl working on radicl new enjinez claiming to be superior the the standard piston/crank type. Alwayzzz!
Duke iz the latest example uv such. They never get very far.

And the deck iz stacked more hevily agenst them than ever. Not only with the car industry infrastructure committed to their ultra-refined standard, but now with electric dizzolving the bottom uv the automobile internal combustion money bucket, investorz arent going to see any enjin, no matter how good, az 'the next big thing'.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:02 am

Jo

The latest Tesla battery electric car is now the third most potent sports car on the market, able to accelerate faster than most Ferrari sports cars. It has a range of 500 miles on one charge. It is very expensive, but so are its competitors in that high end market. Battery electric cars are growing in market share at 60% per year. I think it would be hard to suggest they will never compete against internal combustion.

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 3:21 am

You missed my point.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:33 am

Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 14676
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: bobbo da existential pragmatist

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:37 pm

JO 753 wrote:You missed my point.

He didn't miss your point...he perceived it as saying the the very opposite of what you clearly said. In fact...you both agree on the subject.
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:30 pm

Wich, az a dart throw, woud be in the eye uv the guy standing behind him. In my rule book that counts az a miss.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 14676
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: bobbo da existential pragmatist

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Sep 05, 2016 9:37 pm

Well..... yes.... it is a miss but in the colloquial its a miss only if you don't hit what you are aiming at. If you hit what you intended to hit but its the wrong target, its still a miss...but different.

As well you know.
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 11533
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:58 am

The thing is, Jo, that you used the term 'radical new engine'. The Duke engine does not fit that bill, being just a modification of the old rotary system. Nor is yet another internal combustion engine going to revolutionise transport. Which is why I went to the idea of battery electric motors, which are truly revolutionary, if not terribly new, compared to internal combustion.

It is only a matter of time, really, before internal combustion dies out, except for specialist applications.

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:26 am

Giv it up, man! Youre only digging yourself deeper.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

User avatar
ElectricMonk
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4118
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:21 pm
Custom Title: The Baby-eating Bishop

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby ElectricMonk » Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:19 am

JO 753 wrote:Giv it up, man! Youre only digging yourself deeper.


yep, don't do that - you will only find more oil.

nmblum88
Has More Than 7K Posts
Posts: 7815
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:28 pm

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby nmblum88 » Tue Sep 06, 2016 4:48 pm

JO 753 wrote:Therez alwayz peepl working on radicl new enjinez claiming to be superior the the standard piston/crank type. Alwayzzz!
Duke iz the latest example uv such. They never get very far.

And the deck iz stacked more hevily agenst them than ever. Not only with the car industry infrastructure committed to their ultra-refined standard, but now with electric dissolving the bottom uv the automobile internal combustion money bucket, investorz arent going to see any enjin, no matter how good, az 'the next big thing'.




::SIGH::
“Everything has been invented that can be invented” was the now famous testimony of Mr. Charles H Duell to the US Congress in 1899., as he urged the closing of the Patent Office as an unnecessary adjunct of government,
(Mr. Duell, was, oddly, the Commissioner of the US Office of Patents at the time.),

1899 !!!
Think of the fruits of human imagination that have changed our lives since then: the hula hoop, the smart phone, Viagra.

NMB

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:07 am

I red that wuz a myth.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

nmblum88
Has More Than 7K Posts
Posts: 7815
Joined: Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:28 pm

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby nmblum88 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:20 pm

JO 753 wrote:I red that wuz a myth.

Apocrypha, you say?
Have you checkeld it out?
Never mind, I haven't either....
But it does date back to the end of the 19th Century after a period of extraordinary inventiveness related to industrial development as well as the availability of creature comforts (i.e. indoor plumbing and heating, domestic electricity, mass-produced clothing etc.,)
(As well as an era of encouraged immigration, mostly from Eastern an Central Europe. who were soon busily employed at producing goods as well as digging the New York City subways.)

And here we are again, saying "it can't be done."
(And worse: that if it can "who needs it if there isn't an app for it?"

NMB

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:58 pm

Hooz saying it cant be dun?

The quote wuz debunked: 1899 sours found but then partially rebunked.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

User avatar
JO 753
Has No Life
Posts: 13133
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:21 pm
Custom Title: rezident owtsidr
Location: BLaNDLaND
Contact:

Re: The end of the oil age.

Postby JO 753 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:02 pm

JO 753 wrote:..even tho there are electric aircraft now, I dont see them competing with jets for speed & size any time on the horizon.


So much for that notion.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.


Return to “Economics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest