Th Russsian Economy

Fun with supply and demand.
Tom Palven
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Th Russsian Economy

Post by Tom Palven » Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:40 am

A surprising take on the Russian economy:
http://www.caitlin-long.com/macroeconomics.html
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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ElectricMonk
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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by ElectricMonk » Thu Apr 14, 2016 7:07 am

Interesting - thanks for the link!

Looks like Russia is doing ok for a developing country - but it is no innovator for anything. Its attempt at a silicon valley crashed and burned faster than these things usually do:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/06/the ... -skolkovo/

Most of all, Russia is suffering from the uncertainty of a post-Putin era, so both natives and foreigners shy away from long-term planing and investment.

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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Matthew Ellard » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:51 pm

Tom Palven wrote:A surprising take on the Russian economy:
http://www.caitlin-long.com/macroeconomics.html


From the article
"so regular Russians couldn't pick up and move until relatively late in history, and (2) Siberia has always been viewed by Russians as a back-water, akin to how the British viewed its former penal colony of Australia."

"Back-water"?

I demand all the English members of this forum immediately sign a formal declaration that Australia is not a back-water. :D

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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Matthew Ellard » Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:06 pm

Tom Palven wrote:A surprising take on the Russian economy:


He left off a couple of other contributing factors.

* Education standards are high in Russia, as a ratio compared to anticipated salary. That means "more brains for your buck" when capital in invested into research projects.

* Western consumer goods sanctions, are used as excuses by the Russian government to develop private sectors. When the EEC banned the export of cheese to Russia, Russia started a cheese industry. As agricultural labour is cheaper in Russia, eventually this cheese will be sold to the EEC, hurting EEC producers. ( Well that's what the Russian minister said was going to happen) :D

* The percentage of GDP that Russia spends on its military is very murky. The first T-14 and T-15 tanks are being rolled out now, for the new Russian "professional" ( not-conscript) army. I doubt anyone can determine how many vehicles or what the costs is of this roll-out will be. As all the Russian weapon platforms have to be upgraded to integrate to the new standards, this is going to be many billions of roubles.

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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Tom Palven » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:05 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Tom Palven wrote:A surprising take on the Russian economy:


He left off a couple of other contributing factors.

* Education standards are high in Russia, as a ratio compared to anticipated salary. That means "more brains for your buck" when capital in invested into research projects.

* Western consumer goods sanctions, are used as excuses by the Russian government to develop private sectors. When the EEC banned the export of cheese to Russia, Russia started a cheese industry. As agricultural labour is cheaper in Russia, eventually this cheese will be sold to the EEC, hurting EEC producers. ( Well that's what the Russian minister said was going to happen) :D

* The percentage of GDP that Russia spends on its military is very murky. The first T-14 and T-15 tanks are being rolled out now, for the new Russian "professional" ( not-conscript) army. I doubt anyone can determine how many vehicles or what the costs is of this roll-out will be. As all the Russian weapon platforms have to be upgraded to integrate to the new standards, this is going to be many billions of roubles.


A problem with Russia that's not going to change without a lot of global warming is the weather. It's like upstate New York, Minnesota, and that land mass that lies above those states, not user friendly and in fact almost uninhabitable for 2/3 of the year.
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Matthew Ellard » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:38 am

Tom Palven wrote: A problem with Russia that's not going to change without a lot of global warming is the weather. It's like upstate New York, Minnesota, and that land mass that lies above those states, not user friendly and in fact almost uninhabitable for 2/3 of the year.


The Crimea is as close to the equator as Burgundy in France. I didn't taste any Russian wines but if they are as good as Croatian and Hungarian wines, then Australia has a developing problem. We are wine exporters. Croatia and Hungary are tiny. Russia is huge with large agricultural co-ops.

Social Engineering / Carrier's air-conditioner
I watched a very strange documentary about the introduction of air-conditioning in the USA. I have to check the real figures but it claimed Florida and southern states had declining or stagnant populations until the air-conditioner became
a domestic commodity in the mid 1950's. It actually made sense, if the figures were correct.

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Flash
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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Flash » Fri Apr 15, 2016 5:13 am

Russia has an economy? I thought that all Russians live in the dug out holes in the forest covered by twigs and vegetation and that they pray to Saint Stalin. Here is the proof.

Saint-Stalin-229x300.jpg
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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Tom Palven » Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:59 pm

Jim Rogers seems to agree with Caitlin Long's views, today:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/04/no_ ... cks-bonds/
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:48 pm

Buying Russian bonds&shares is not much of a problem: it's a BB or lower investment like many others.
But direct investment, like joint ventures or setting up subsidiaries has had a bad history in Russia: massive bureaucracy, corruption, and organized crime all ensure that whatever profits are left are siphoned off by crooks.
Success is often more dangerous than failure in Putin's Russia.

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Re: Th Russsian Economy

Post by Tom Palven » Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:01 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:Buying Russian bonds&shares is not much of a problem: it's a BB or lower investment like many others.
But direct investment, like joint ventures or setting up subsidiaries has had a bad history in Russia: massive bureaucracy, corruption, and organized crime all ensure that whatever profits are left are siphoned off by crooks.
Success is often more dangerous than failure in Putin's Russia.


That's all probably true, but then again, Jim Rogers is not a babe-in-the-woods.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire