Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

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Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Oct 17, 2015 8:20 pm

Reference : New Scientist, 3 October 2015, page 28

It appears rather probable that developments in computing and robotics will eliminate a large percentage of jobs. One estimate is that half of all jobs will be gone in 20 years. How do we provide for all those people who are not working?

The leading proposal is the UBI. This simplifies the whole thing by having governments provide a basic income to everyone, regardless of whether they are working or not, or whether they have another income. Several experiments have already been carried out, in which it was shown that people receiving the UBI still wanted to work, and still did work when work was available.

Already we are in a world where a large part of the total economy of western nations is dominated by a very few large companies which employ very few people. What happens when such companies take over almost all economic activity, and most people are unemployed?

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Oct 17, 2015 8:41 pm

Depends. Are you an eloi or a morlock?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gord » Sat Oct 17, 2015 11:40 pm

As a communist, I'm all for it. As a lazy person...meh, whatevs.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:47 am

Pros and Cons to all we do. UBI is a most excellent thought experiment/looming reality that should be thoroughly discussed.

Cutting to the chase.....we all want a society that functions producing all its needs with as good a life as most can have? There is general agreement that for a society to achieve these goals, there must be enough "work" for people to earn their way in life....or you get wars or famine as a result. But what if: THERE ARE NO JOBS.

The Handmaidens Tale...turned we the 99% into "furniture" and baby incubators. Sy-Fy that didn't make any sense. Time Machine does seem more likely. I've read that if we did away with electronic switches then there would be a labor shortage for manual switch operators. IE==the amount of employment in a society is totally governed by the choices (laws) we make. Everyone could be drafted into the military. Fully staffed for any "contingency." Easy. But is that what we want??

Keep almost remembering his name...criticized current welfare for giving money only to single Moms: thereby destroying the basic family structure. Contra: if everyone had a UBI, then a (fiscally) strong family would bring a lot of stability and happiness to society.

Ha, ha......what to do with all that time and money? Sure hope drugs are legal too.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gord » Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:02 am

If everyone were given a UBI, would it cause prices to rise so that everyone were required to obtain additional income in order to live "above the line of poverty" (wherever we wish to mark that)?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:10 am

Gord: its complicated. I hate macro-economics, gives me a headache as if someone was rolling dice in my empty head.

First gut reaction: if good and services are basically provided "for free" by robots and computes...."price" becomes a stone age concept. distribution/aggregations/wealth gap/illegal activities would I think predominate.

Poverty: lack of food, medicine, education, stuff. If these are all provided....the only poverty I can see would be of imagination?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:22 am

The UBI would probably be the greatest service to the elimination of poverty in our respective nations ever. If it were generous enough, then no one would suffer poverty. The money would not result in inflation, but would create a boost to local economies, since it would speed up the flow of money. The biggest draw back to the UBI that I see is simply the question of getting enough tax money to pay for it all. But if the loss of jobs is as predicted, there may be no choice.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:41 am

Lance--I don't know economic/social structure well enough to conclude....but I suspect you are stuck in the capitalist model what with the talk of "flow of money." Money/prices/gnp/employment ---all become mostly irrelevant if robots and computers can provide most such things..............and that makes me stop. Robots and such do have their limits....or will we become a society that eats only those things that can be grown and harvested by robots?

Hah!---so yes, Neanderthal Economics I think will play out along a longish transitions period? And I too carry a club. that (Bill Murray?) author I can't think of proposed simply taking "all" of social safety net spending and making it a UBI to all that qualified--including millions thrown out of work by the new global approach. Does leave a lot of questions.

Lots to think about. Pros and Cons.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gord » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:27 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Poverty: lack of ... stuff.

Yeah. I'll have to disagree with the vagueness of that part.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:36 am

Gord wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Poverty: lack of ... stuff.

Yeah. I'll have to disagree with the vagueness of that part.

Too private an allusion? I was actually thinking of (can't call it referring to as the link is too personal and ephemeral) that measure of poverty evaluation based on wealth gaps typically represented by ostentatious displays of wealth.....or stuff.

I don't think lack of stuff provokes revolution, lack of basic needs does however....or its close standby: crime in the streets.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:14 am

Well, I was close: Charles Murray. think I even saw this show, but I was remembering a panel discussion he was on years before.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sens ... c-culture/
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Lausten » Wed Oct 21, 2015 11:06 am

I see some old problems that will need to be solved before UBI works. For instance these big robot operated companies will claim they deserve benefits because they are creating the entire economy. That's a lie, since they are polluting and getting cheap resources and those costs are being paid by governments, i.e. the rest of us. Taxes are the obvious answer, but those taxes then get diverted to things that once again benefit those companies, using the same justification they had for not taxing them in the first place.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Oct 21, 2015 11:52 am

Lausten: change is change. Everyone will still be angling to maximize their own positions but a society with UBI is not all that different than the same society without UBI and a host of other social institutions and programs to fill that previous income gap.

I can only assume assume that a society wise enough to provide UBI will also work on removing the GROSS income inequality and Gross Wealth Disparity created .................NOT........ by hard work or brains or innovation, but rather by our tax code. EG: once a CEO's pay is capped at One Million per year...a whole lot of corporate BS goes away, or becomes redirected to improving the coporation itself rather than the CEO's next tax dodge.

Small things in the Tax code could have great benefit. LARGE changes in the Tax Code will be required by a society that evolves into a "real" required employment rate of 10% of the people.

change. It never comes easy.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Oct 21, 2015 12:03 pm

The plutocrats seem to have the situation upside down. Giving people more money to spend means more money will be spent. The rich {!#%@} will benefit disproportionately from this. But I'm okay with that if the kids get some for supper besides $1.00/pound bologna, no bread, no ketchup.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Oct 21, 2015 12:16 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:The plutocrats seem to have the situation upside down. Giving people more money to spend means more money will be spent. The rich {!#%@} will benefit disproportionately from this. But I'm okay with that if the kids get some for supper besides $1.00/pound bologna, no bread, no ketchup.

Hence changes to the tax code. I wonder is a cap of One Million on income would result in a world where Corporations were not interested in drilling in the Arctic or Denying Climate Change and so forth. There is being money motivated but it crosses over into greed. I think a lot of what is wrong in society is caused by greed. I say: tax the greedy. See what happens.

But yes, UBI would be a constant tax stimulus benefiting the entire society and so without changes to the Tax Code....it would filter up to the rich disproportionately.

Pros and Cons to all we do.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:01 pm

As I said, if that fat bastard with the skinny wife has an eighty foot yacht or just a seventy-nine footer doesn't bother me. The point is to give them incentive to go along with the program.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:22 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:As I said, if that fat bastard with the skinny wife has an eighty foot yacht or just a seventy-nine footer doesn't bother me. The point is to give them incentive to go along with the program.

I think you are making a basic error. There are incentives, there are means to an end. If you tax the rich correctly, most of them will be motivated to cheat the tax code to stay rich. How will they do that? Tax cheats go to jail, those that want to be rich will have to turn to other types of crime other than legally gutting the society they feed on.

There is no "incentive" to convince bank robbers to stop. We have made bank robbing against the law, and we prosecute bank robbers unless they are on the board and committed white collar crime....but breaking into the vault and taking the physical money has stopped. Same with all laws....you have to enforce them...after that, incentive becomes....what? A bribe? A corruption in the very system?....or just like any other capital gains?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Lausten » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:13 pm

I read "after capitalism" quite a while ago. It suggests a millionaires tax to fund all the programs needed for basic health and human services and the building of infrastructure. If you were making a million a year, your tax would be 99%. You could still work as hard you wanted, you would be just be doing it because you felt your work was important and that the world really needed you to do that. Most millionaires say that, but I don't think they really believe it.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:52 pm

I think a major overhaul of the tax code to achieve the amount of revenue required to fund what was deemed desired, would find the corporations taxed as they were 50 years ago and I would think CEO being limited to some multiple of average employee pay could be part of it as well....ie...who really creates the wealth? The Workers, or Management,........or even the Tax Code? After that (sic after capitalism) how to best distribute the increases in productivity a society/business has? Why does it now all go to the top 1%?

Lots of issues to think about. The current TPP has already caused the Dolphin Safe Tuna restrictions in America to be revoked as they conflict with "the right" of Chilean Corporate Fisheries to sell Tuna into our market. Why do these top 1% corporate interests take precedent over we the people?===>and its GREED. Save the Tuna, Save Human Kind, Save the Planet==tax the rich so they don't have an INCENTIVE to rape the planet. There are enough people satisfied with executive perks, a million a year, and social approval for advances made....to keep society functioning.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:10 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:As I said, if that fat bastard with the skinny wife has an eighty foot yacht or just a seventy-nine footer doesn't bother me. The point is to give them incentive to go along with the program.

I think you are making a basic error. There are incentives, there are means to an end. If you tax the rich correctly, most of them will be motivated to cheat the tax code to stay rich. How will they do that? Tax cheats go to jail, those that want to be rich will have to turn to other types of crime other than legally gutting the society they feed on.

There is no "incentive" to convince bank robbers to stop. We have made bank robbing against the law, and we prosecute bank robbers unless they are on the board and committed white collar crime....but breaking into the vault and taking the physical money has stopped. Same with all laws....you have to enforce them...after that, incentive becomes....what? A bribe? A corruption in the very system?....or just like any other capital gains?

Why did you quote me when your post had nothing to do with what I said?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby TJrandom » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:17 pm

I am dubious that jobs will disappear when robots become better developed and more fully deployed. While true that we do not use as many ditch diggers in these days of mechanical diggers, we instead need mechanical digger operators and maintenance workers. As technology advances, we need workers to maintain the devices, and extend those technologies. These new jobs are both skilled, and non-skilled.

Then there are always jobs on the fringe. At the far end, I am reminded of the homeless who I see most pre-dawn mornings gathering aluminum cans and boxes for recycle, and even people cleaning the streets, helping school kids across busy streets, washing those mechanical diggers, etc.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:21 pm

Without well-heeled wage earners the rich bitches aren't going to stay rich.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:55 pm

Tj

Jobs 'at the fringe' will be first to go, since they are simple, and require less sophisticated robots.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:59 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Tj

Jobs 'at the fringe' will be first to go, since they are simple, and require less sophisticated robots.

Garbage trucks used to have three guys, driver and two can slingers. Now the can slingers aren't needed.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby TJrandom » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:16 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Tj

Jobs 'at the fringe' will be first to go, since they are simple, and require less sophisticated robots.


I don`t buy that. Fringe jobs don`t pay enough to justify the investment, and even for those few which do - there will always be new fringe jobs. The jobs which are likely to be replaced first would be high skilled but yet repetitive (pipe welding but not car repair welding, factory assembly, etc.). Plumbers, roofers, painters, tree trimmers, gardeners, nurses, doctors, care givers, police, sales clerks, cooks, waiters/waitresses DJs, actors/actresses etc. aren`t likely to be replaced any time soon.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Lance Kennedy » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:09 am

Tj

The assumption that those robots will cost a lot may be wrong.
Remember the personal computer? The first, unsophisticated models cost a lot but the price fell dramatically as they become smarter. I predict the same for robots. The time will come when small robots will be made by the million, and sold for a sum that can readily be afforded.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:39 am

The expensive part is the processor, the rest is just mechanics. There's a factory in Indiana that produces car body parts. In a field behind the plant, under plastic, you can find last year's robots. Maybe ten percent salvaged, the rest is scrap metal waiting for a buyer.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:40 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:[Why did you quote me when your post had nothing to do with what I said?

You talked about the need to INCENTIVIZE the rich so they would go along with tax changes. I respond that is not needed if you enforce the rules. A direct engagement of your issue.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:43 am

Tj--its all about numbers. You cant stop thinking once everyone agrees there will be "some" jobs or even more jobs of some sort. You add them all up and USA has lost millions of blue collar manufacturing jobs and multiple millions of mom and pop service jobs to support them. Its why the middle and working class is shrinking.

..............and I don't think picking up empty soda cans is a job at all on the fringe or otherwise.

Putting numbers on issues, both pro and cons, add them up. Note the difference.

Robots displace people. Get enough robots, the function of people go away. What to do with even the first wave of 10 million robot/computer displaced people we have today?

"Let them eat cake."
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:04 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:[Why did you quote me when your post had nothing to do with what I said?

You talked about the need to INCENTIVIZE the rich so they would go along with tax changes. I respond that is not needed if you enforce the rules. A direct engagement of your issue.

And the incentive, if you had read the whole post, was to pay the workers more. I never addressed changing the tax rates on the rich. They might pay more taxes if they were making more money because the proles had more money to buy their stuff, but that's not changing the tax rates.

Clear now?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:21 pm

Gwad: Did my reply have nothing to do with your post, or something to do with it?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:23 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Gwad: Did my reply have nothing to do with your post, or something to do with it?

It was irrelevant to my post, just a rant from your agenda.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:30 pm

Gwad===you aren't answering the question put to you. I honestly don't know why you don't simply admit it and move on with all your other statements still with standing.

You raised the concern of having to incentivize the rich, and I responded that issue was irrelevant if the law is enforced.

A DIRECT EXCHANGE of positions.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:35 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:As I said, if that fat bastard with the skinny wife has an eighty foot yacht or just a seventy-nine footer doesn't bother me. The point is to give them incentive to go along with the program.

Perhaps this is the concern? The preposition "THEM" I took to mean the rich. Evidently, your antecedent for them was the workers? Usually, a preposition refers to the most recently mentioned antecedent unless context shows otherwise?

Easy to correct.....whichever way you mean it. Incentives are express in the Law. The Incentive to comply with the law is Jail Time if you don't. I think that covers both meanings of them?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:42 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Gwad===you aren't answering the question put to you. I honestly don't know why you don't simply admit it and move on with all your other statements still with standing.

You raised the concern of having to incentivize the rich, and I responded that issue was irrelevant if the law is enforced.

A DIRECT EXCHANGE of positions.

Your head-up-ass version of my post is absurd. I explained my position, should I do so again, in smaller words?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:57 pm

Gwad: yes, use smaller words. did you read the post about the possible confusion regarding "them?" I have been trying to resolve and connect our positions. If you prefer a hissyfit....I'll engage for a few.

Go for it.....................
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:02 pm

I'm not worried about you or your posts. Just try to READ THE {!#%@} POST before you reply in the future.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:08 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:I'm not worried about you or your posts. Just try to READ THE {!#%@} POST before you reply in the future.

I have and explained the connection completely and with variation. Making irrelevant side issues and whining like a child notwithstanding.

Why so childish Gwad? Knock that {!#%@} off and let your humor and knowledge shine through.
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:16 pm

Bye
Chachacha wrote:"Oh, thweet mythtery of wife, at waft I've found you!"

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The Myths of Pearl Harbor. Demythologizing the attack.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:26 pm

A much better choice...... too da loo!
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?


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