Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Generally

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Martin Brock
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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Martin Brock » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:01 am

Earlier, I said I'd address Martenson's claim that our monetary system requires an ever increasing money supply, because all money is credit, and interest has creditors collecting more money than they lend. I've written a lot here already, so I'll try to keep this one short.

The logic is sophomoric, and any Finance 101 student should be able to explain why, so Martenson's reliance on this argument raises a red flag. Interest plays several roles in a system of credit. None requires an ever increasing money supply. First, banks provide an accounting service. This service is costly, and interest denominates these costs. A bank pays accountants, tellers and guards as well as depositors. If interest requires ever an increasing money supply, then so does anything else exchanged for money. Second, credit is risky. Some borrowers never repay it. Interest is therefore also an insurance premium. Without interest, creditors would necessarily collect less than they lend, so they'd lose money even if their services cost nothing.

As a practical matter, the money supply does increase with productivity, because the transactions requiring money increase. Martenson seems to think the reverse is true, that an increasing money supply requires ever increasing productivity to pay interest. It doesn't.
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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Martin Brock » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:09 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:To which I reply, Martin, that the US health care system is massively more expensive than here in NZ. We have a lot more government control than you do. If government control raises prices, then perhaps you could explain the discrepancy?

The sort of government control obviously makes a difference. I can imagine some system in which a state organizes health care resources and delivers the services at lower cost than the U.S. system; however, I don't at all agree that your health care system has a lot more government control than the U.S. system. The U.S. health care system has massive government controls. It had massive government controls before Obamacare, and it has even more massive government controls now.

If our Congress could simply command a single payer National Health Service, similar to the British model, with doctors employed by the state and services rationed by state boards rather than the market, this system might even be better, in some sense, than the monstrosity we have now. I don't deny that, but I don't expect it to happen either, and it hasn't happened as a matter of fact.

I do deny that such a system would provide health care more effectively or more affordably than a system with much less central government control than we already have.
People associating freely respect norms of their choice, and relationships governed this way are necessarily interdependent.

More central authorities conquer by dividing, imposing norms channeling the value of synergy toward themselves.

"Every man for himself" is the prescription of a state, not a free community. A state protects the poor from the rich only in fairy tales.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:15 am

Martin

To give you an idea of relative costs.
http://dll.umaine.edu/ble/U.S.%20HCweb.pdf

The USA spends $US 4,178 per capita per year on health care, which is 14% of GDP The OECD average is $US 1,783, under 10%.

Seems to me that something is very wrong.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Gord » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:48 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:The OECD

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development?! Oh my GROD, are THEY still around?!?!
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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Zapata » Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:46 pm

Martin et al,

Just wanted to let you know that I've been reading your responses and taking them into consideration, I just don't have much to offer in terms of insight right now.

If you're interested, here's Martenson boiling it all down at the Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-martenson-phd/prediction-things-will-un_b_747403.html

Zapata

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Martin Brock » Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:13 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Seems to me that something is very wrong.

I agree that something is very wrong, but I don't agree that we have too little state control of medicine. Wholesale socialization of medicine in the U.S., on some model, might be an improvement over what we have now, in some sense, but that's not very comforting to me. It's like saying that punching me in the stomach is an improvement over kicking me in the nuts.
People associating freely respect norms of their choice, and relationships governed this way are necessarily interdependent.

More central authorities conquer by dividing, imposing norms channeling the value of synergy toward themselves.

"Every man for himself" is the prescription of a state, not a free community. A state protects the poor from the rich only in fairy tales.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Oct 05, 2010 12:09 am

Martin

I am not suggesting greater government control of medicine, except of course, where it proves necessary. If I had clear cut answers, I would be a highly paid advisor to Obama. I am merely pointing out the problem, which is, every time, much easier than providing answers.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Zapata » Sat Oct 16, 2010 11:21 pm

Lance, this made me think of you and this dead thread... (you are the Kiwi, right?)

http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/4/6/a/00PLEco10041-The-next-oil-shock.htm

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby hodag_geezer » Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:51 am

I am of two minds about Martenson. He reminds me of a TV preacher who is both a true believer and perfectly willing to benefit financially from his preaching but at the same time he makes a lot of sense.

In general, I don't have many issues with his presentation of 'facts'. I do pick some nits, but don't find any huge gaping holes or instances of 'then a miracle happens'. If you want a more polished scientific presentation of similar data, check out 'Limits to Growth: 30 Year Update'.

Martenson has all the zeal of a true believer and that raises my eyebrows. But then I keep coming back to how much of his presentation is reinforced by conclusions that I have come to independently long before collapse thinking was in vogue. For example, the continual tinkering with unemployment levels and CPI computation for the purpose of making presidents look good. I also made the connection with all sorts of historic trends deviating from past behavior about 1985. Whether that was caused by abandoning the gold standard or by supply side economics or something else, I don't know. But I do know that something very fundamental changed then.

I do appreciate that Martenson seems to be a systems thinker rather than a single issue guy, probably because that's how I think as well. He also doesn't buy into or propose conspiracy theories or silver bullet solutions.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby The Only Apathy » Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:41 am

http://moneymappress.com/pro/Pyramid071 ... e=PPYRN727

Just wanted to show you that these guys are about the money and I will stay Skeptic. I sure am glad I bought all those supplies in December of 99 for the end of the world! These snake oil salesman prey on our weaknesses. If you want to know a sure fire tested and true method to survive the coming apocalypse start selling the fire tested true method of surviving it now and you will be loaded before it comes!

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby bigtim » Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:50 pm

The Only Apathy wrote:http://moneymappress.com/pro/Pyramid0712MMR.php?code=PPYRN727

Just wanted to show you that these guys are about the money and I will stay Skeptic. I sure am glad I bought all those supplies in December of 99 for the end of the world! These snake oil salesman prey on our weaknesses. If you want to know a sure fire tested and true method to survive the coming apocalypse start selling the fire tested true method of surviving it now and you will be loaded before it comes!


Your link is not only BS it locks your browser so you click to leave. I kill processes when they do that and log the link as spam/virus.
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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Generally

Postby solarsurfer » Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:11 am

Ok, so you want holes in the theory... Here's one. People do not live forever. Exponential growth in that water drop
example requires no leaks in the stadium. True exponential growth requires steady rate and infinite life.
people have variable fertility rates and mortality rates. How about debt / money / interest. Interest is a variable quantity. Money supply is a variable quantity. Debt does not last forever. Seems like neither of these two fit the prescribed conditions for exponential growth. What happened in 2008 really? It was an implosion of the credit default swap market, It was triggered by a slight amount of loan defaults. They were over insured by a factor some where between 40 and 100. That ultra leverage destabilized the CDS market. Those defaults were mostly in loans that should never have been made. This drove capital out of liquid assets, like oil futures. Demand did not increase. or decrease.
over night. Only the greed for potential profit. Prior to the crash in '08 The extra cash generated from the new debt source of the credit default swap markets went into the oil market and some questionable real estate loans. This is what kicked the price of oil up. The bid price exceeded the actual cost by about double so this created an inflated oil price. The Saudi trade surplus as a source for extra cash went into banks that used it to speculate in the CDS market. When the chickens came home to roost it could not help but be a petro-dollar denominated crisis. So there you are Funny money plain and not so simple. Whether by design or not these economic disasters actually help push the really sudden crash further into the future. The interest squeeze in the 80's I think it is safe to say was a deliberate economic slowdown. The threat that the totally unregulated CDS market posed should have been foreseen and actually was. There was an article in Scientific American that claimed that derivatives were not the actual asset and that treating them as assets, if there were no controls on the market would very likely cause problems. So ample warning was given before the problem mushroomed out of control.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Generally

Postby solarsurfer » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:44 pm

My previous post detailed some severe mathematical analytical errors that are the basis of the theory of the cash course. So after that tear down I will try to offer some other mathematical model. The mathematical model that seems most likely to offer a true glimpse of the future trends is the prey predator equations. They are a set of equations that describe the population growth of prey and predators in the wild. In the financial markets you have winners and losers just like prey and predators. Initial conditions are set up for the populations and the mortality rates and the contribution to mortality that the predators make when killing the prey as well as the birth rates of both species. Of course this model like many others will not be perfect but a look at how it performs with different initial conditions does offer some insight to the world economic system. It turns out that you can have three basic outcomes. One outcome the population slowly grows but never reaches an exponential take off point. With a different set of initial conditions the population reaches an exponential takeoff point and rises to a plateau and on that plateau the two populations oscillate up and down, one rising and the other falling back and forth in an equilibrium of sorts. The final set of conditions yields an almost exponential rise and a sudden collapse with a (possible extinction) from which there is no recovery. Of course if the fertility rate changes or the mortality rate changes then a new calculation must be made to account for the altered conditions. If you looking for a controlled market with the oscillating data set,
you will also find out that the data sets required have a very thin range. In many ways our economic system is like a production line. a snafu in one primary sub line can spoil production for the entire system.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Generally

Postby Matthew Ellard » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:52 am

solarsurfer wrote:They are a set of equations that describe the population growth of prey and predators in the wild. In the financial markets you have winners and losers just like prey and predators.
This is not really true. Capital raising can benefit both parties and if capital infrastructure increases production efficiency, the consumer also benefits. That's one reason we have GDP growth.

Are you going to detail your explanations with economic models, in conventional formats?

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby mmortal03 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 4:42 pm

Martin Brock wrote:As a practical matter, the money supply does increase with productivity, because the transactions requiring money increase. Martenson seems to think the reverse is true, that an increasing money supply requires ever increasing productivity to pay interest. It doesn't.


Hmm, isn't he saying that *debt* is growing faster than productivity gains can match? Regarding the money supply, I thought he'd proposed two possibilities, one, that the money supply *does* grow faster than economic growth, causing inflation, or, two, that we see a deflationary spiral occur. He's not holding himself down to a particular conclusion (which, mind you, while pragmatic, is also very convenient when faced with people who want to see whether his material makes accurate predictions).

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:46 pm

mmortal03 wrote:
Martin Brock wrote:As a practical matter, the money supply does increase with productivity, because the transactions requiring money increase. Martenson seems to think the reverse is true, that an increasing money supply requires ever increasing productivity to pay interest. It doesn't.


Hmm, isn't he saying that *debt* is growing faster than productivity gains can match? Regarding the money supply, I thought he'd proposed two possibilities, one, that the money supply *does* grow faster than economic growth, causing inflation, or, two, that we see a deflationary spiral occur. He's not holding himself down to a particular conclusion (which, mind you, while pragmatic, is also very convenient when faced with people who want to see whether his material makes accurate predictions).


You are responding to a post made five years ago. Martin hasn't posted for almost a year.

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Gord » Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:17 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:Martin hasn't posted for almost a year.

No, but he popped in last night.
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby Matthew Ellard » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:10 am

Gord wrote:
Matthew Ellard wrote:Martin hasn't posted for almost a year.

No, but he popped in last night.
Well, there you go. I occasionally fight with Martin, but I like reading his posts. :D

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Re: Chris Martenson's Crash Course and Collapse Theory Gener

Postby mmortal03 » Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:47 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Gord wrote:
Matthew Ellard wrote:Martin hasn't posted for almost a year.

No, but he popped in last night.
Well, there you go. I occasionally fight with Martin, but I like reading his posts. :D


Martin doesn't necessarily have to respond to me, I just found his criticism to be contrary to what I've heard from Martenson. :)


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