Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

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Ego
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Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by Ego » Fri Sep 11, 2015 12:33 am

http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-movie/

For background, here is an article from the New Yorker about Armstrong

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/ ... cret-cycle

The number of people who consider their apophenia a strength is astounding. The irony lies is the fact that so many people believe this numerology that rational investors must take their influence into consideration.

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Re: Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by Gord » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:17 am

Sounds like numerology.

A problem occurs whenever we look at something afterwards, and investigate the numbers we can find involved therein. For instance, when we plot the occurrence of illnesses across a city, we might find pockets and think they represent zones where something is causing illness; but in fact, we always find pockets in random distributions like that, so finding those pockets doesn't necessarily mean anything. In order to test the numbers, we have to make predictions first, then let events occur, and afterwards check the numbers to see if our predictions pan out.

I'd like to see his experiment performed to see if his numbers work out the way he predicts.
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Re: Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by Matthew Ellard » Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:22 am

Gord wrote:Sounds like numerology.
Seems more like total bull-shit.

"Not long afterward, he claims, the C.I.A. telephoned his firm, eager to get a closer look at his model. Agents had been watching him and were curious about how he had managed to call the collapse of the ruble."

Considering this happened in 1998 and the Soviet Union ended in 1991, he was seven years late.

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Re: Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by Monster » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:41 pm

What caught my eye is the notion of using pi for economics. How are geometry and economics related? I don't think they are.
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Re: Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by xouper » Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:36 pm

Monster wrote:What caught my eye is the notion of using pi for economics. How are geometry and economics related? I don't think they are.

Pi shows up in statistics and probabilities in ways that are not necessarily intuitive.

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Re: Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by SweetPea » Sat Sep 12, 2015 12:54 am

Ego wrote:http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-movie/

For background, here is an article from the New Yorker about Armstrong

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/ ... cret-cycle

The number of people who consider their apophenia a strength is astounding. The irony lies is the fact that so many people believe this numerology that rational investors must take their influence into consideration.

Would they look for patterns of the strength of the influence? :)
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Re: Martin Armstrong "The Forecaster" movie. Using pi to predict markets

Post by Ego » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:23 pm

SweetPea wrote:Would they look for patterns of the strength of the influence? :)


Hah! Well played.