Half a degree more global warming could flood out 5 million more people

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Gawdzilla Sama
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Half a degree more global warming could flood out 5 million more people

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:34 am

Half a degree more global warming could flood out 5 million more people

Date: March 15, 2018

Source: Princeton University

Summary: A new study finds that by 2150, the seemingly small difference between a global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius would mean the permanent inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60,000 who live on small island nations.

The 2015 Paris climate agreement sought to stabilize global temperatures by limiting warming to well below 2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue limiting warming even further, to 1.5 C.

To quantify what that would mean for people living in coastal areas, a group of researchers employed a global network of tide gauges and a local sea level projection framework to explore differences in the frequency of storm surges and other extreme sea-level events across three scenarios: global temperature increases of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 C.

They concluded that by 2150, the seemingly small difference between an increase of 1.5 and 2.0 C would mean the permanent inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60,000 who live on small island nations.

The study, conducted by researchers at Princeton University and colleagues at Rutgers and Tufts Universities, the independent scientific organization Climate Central, and ICF International, was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters on March 15, 2018.

"People think the Paris Agreement is going to save us from harm from climate change, but we show that even under the best-case climate policy being considered today, many places will still have to deal with rising seas and more frequent coastal floods," said DJ Rasmussen, a graduate student in Princeton's Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, and first author of the study.

The researchers found that higher temperatures will make extreme sea level events much more common. They used long-term hourly tide gauge records and extreme value theory to estimate present and future return periods of extreme sea-level events through the 22nd century. Under the 1.5 C scenario, the frequency of extreme sea level events is still expected to increase. For example, by the end of the 21st century, New York City is expected to experience one Hurricane Sandy-like flood event every five years.


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Re: Half a degree more global warming could flood out 5 million more people

Postby Gord » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:19 am

Can I pick the specific 5 million?
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Gawdzilla Sama
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Re: Half a degree more global warming could flood out 5 million more people

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:28 pm

Gord wrote:Can I pick the specific 5 million?

If you limit the pick to Washington, DC, sure.
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Re: Half a degree more global warming could flood out 5 million more people

Postby OlegTheBatty » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:10 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Gord wrote:Can I pick the specific 5 million?

If you limit the pick to Washington, DC, sure.


I wouldn't mind if he picked a few of those African Warlords and religious thugsters. I'm sure there are few in the DC area that could be spared to make room. Oh, and Bibi N.
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