The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

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The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:19 am

What oddly seems to surprise so many people, reality can quickly disagree with the hypotheses and speculative models of scientists. The polar bear is a rich case in point.

Read https://goo.gl/z6n5FY
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:57 am

A link?--------------------Look Maw!!!!!!!

We did the bears already.............so without going to the link.........sea ice is shrinking so bears have adapted their feeding to get more land based sources. Attacks on human becoming more common. See?==>AGW leads to more people dying.

Again: bears aren't the issue.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Phoenix76 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:52 am

Hey Bobbo, I know that you are a fanatical believer in climate change, and I can't argue that point. But AGW leads to more people dying???? And now from Polar Bear attacks?????????

Now I think it is your turn to at least put up some association here. I don't currently see the world population declining for any reason, let alone AGW.

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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:08 am

I named and connected the dots. What more do you want?

Edit: How about millions will die from moisquito born diseases spreading out of the tropics? Bears----Bugs. Same deal just different numbers.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:05 pm

Here's proof that we and polar bears are all gonna die from climate change.

Image


No other proof needed. ROTFLMAO
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:50 am

That bear is going to be hungry when he wakes up.......................................... run!!!!!!

or................... Already 2/3rds the way to a nice rug.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:12 am

Two good shows on tomorrow re Climate Change/Politics are in opposition to one another:

Climate Swerve, by Robert Lifton re how people have become numb to climate change

then

Green Tyranny, by Rupert Darwall re Exposing the Totalitarian Roots of the Climate Industrial complex.

////////////////// Ha, ha. Which of the two just "sounds like" made up BS?

edit: Its on C-Span2 if you are lucky enough to get the feed.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:33 am

Here is more from the enlightening article Polar Bear-Gate A picture is Worth a Thousand Lies or Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

All links to the peer reviewed evidence can be found in original article. http://landscapesandcycles.net/polar-be ... -lies.html

What oddly seems to surprise so many people, reality can quickly disagree with the hypotheses and speculative models of scientists. The polar bear is a rich case in point. In 2008, the polar bear was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of the Center for Biological Diversity’s (CBD) petition. Due to hypotheses regards future effects of increasing CO2 on sea ice and polar bear health, CBD argued polar bears were endangered. However then Interior Secretary Kempthorne made it clear that “the ESA will not be used as a tool for trying to regulate the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for creating climate change.” But as seen in other memos and petitions, such as for the bearded seals. http://landscapesandcycles.net/threaten ... odels.html
, the CBD ultimately wants to use the ESA as a tool to regulate CO2.

So the CBD stepped up their demands and petitioned the Obama administration to list the bears as endangered. Climate scientists Ken Caldeira and Michael Mann co-authored a 2010 letter to Interior Secretary Salazar supporting CBD efforts. They warned “sea ice has been projected to disappear in the 2030s or before” and lost sea ice was both a future and “current threat to this important habitat of the polar bear.” The Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) led by researchers like Andrew Derocher, Steve Amstrup and Ian Stirling warned the world that “two thirds of the world’s bears will be lost by mid-century due to climate change”. The PBSG published a status table for all the polar bear sub-populations showing in the best studied populations, 8 were declining.

However, since 2010 those predictions have been unravelling. All the evidence now reveals polar bears are thriving and increasing, and the PBSG’s recent status tables show just that. Research by Chambellant and Stirling determined it was heavy springtime ice that was most detrimental to bears and their main prey, the ringed seal. The loss of Arctic summer sea ice was happening faster than CO2 driven models had predicted, suggesting flawed models. Research revealed that in response to the natural Arctic Oscillation, thick sea ice had been blown into the warmer Atlantic due to a directional shift in freezing winds. Further loss of Arctic sea ice has recently been shown to be caused by cycles of intruding waters from the Pacific and the Atlantic resulting in heat in that gets stored in the subsurface of the Arctic Ocean, dynamics that have not been accurately incorporated into global climate models. Accordingly, the loss of sea ice has not accelerated. Instead the loss has slowed considerably.

Skeptics argued such evidence challenges prevailing hypotheses about the polar bears’ demise, and question the contention that greenhouse gases are the primary cause of sea ice fluctuations. Driven by the hubris of scientists like Michael Mann whose careers are totally invested in the “dire predictions” of rising CO2, the normal scientific process of challenging a hypothesis was framed as an “attack on science”.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby psychiatry is a scam » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:43 am

has anyone mentioned that bears in warmer areas are going to suffer / eat garbage .
but bears farther north should be ok ? maybe other areas will open up ; but doubt if they will find those areas ; unless
researches interfere and move bears from bad locations -- to above the arctic circle .

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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:51 am

psychiatry is a scam wrote:has anyone mentioned that bears in warmer areas are going to suffer / eat garbage .
but bears farther north should be ok ? maybe other areas will open up ; but doubt if they will find those areas ; unless
researches interfere and move bears from bad locations -- to above the arctic circle .


If they did point that out it would be unsupported speculation.

Bears in the Hudson Bay have been doing extremely well. Such places located south of the Arctic Circle are naturally ice free all summer.Its the sun not CO2. As mentioned in the article, Baffin Bay which is also naturally ice free each summer and was listed in the PBSG 2014 status report as declining, has now increased from 1,546 in 2004 to 2,826 in the most recent survey.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:08 am

Whether bears numbers reduce because of thinning ice or become more numerous by adapting to changed conditions.......THE POINT IS: the ice is thinning.

Bears is just a distraction............but you know that.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:27 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Whether bears numbers reduce because of thinning ice or become more numerous by adapting to changed conditions.......THE POINT IS: the ice is thinning.

Bears is just a distraction............but you know that.


If polar bears are increasing, why would thinning ice be a problem?

Furthermore, the evidence is mounting that it is not CO2, but shifting winds of the Arctic Oscillation and cycles of intruding warm waters that drive changes in sea ice. But you should know that!
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:37 am

I'll put you down for -1.

thank you.

AGW: changing winds and warming water. Thinning Ice: albedo.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:57 am

Bobbo clearly you know squat about Arctic Sea Ice dynamics.

And if polar bears are irrelevant, then why are the alarmists climate scientists pushing polar bears as an icon of catastrophic climate change????

To continue article:


Again in 2010, in the paper Climate Change and the Integrity of Science Peter Gleick wrote, “We are deeply disturbed by the recent escalation of political assaults on scientists in general and on climate scientists in particular. Accompanying his paper (below) was a photo-shopped picture of a polar bear stranded on a shrinking piece of ice. A deception that skeptics quickly pointed out.

Image

So the following correction was placed in the paper’s online version.

“Due to an editorial error, the original image associated with this Letter was not a photograph, but a collage. The image was selected by the editors [of Science, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science], and it was a mistake to have used it. The original image has been replaced in the online HTML and PDF versions of the article with an unaltered photograph from National Geographic.”

That replacement picture (below) was from National Geographic photographer Paul Nicklin, who would become infamous for specializing in dead and skinny polar bear photos. If Gleick or his editors were pulling photos from an archive (National Geographic?) of photographs, then the question arises if the fake collage was also the work of the same photographer. And if so, for what purpose were they creating such a dishonest photo? The timing of the article and fake photo also raised suspicions from skeptics as it coincided with the Center for Biological Diversity’s campaign to up-list the polar bear from threatened to endangered,

Image

Despite having “carelessly” used a fake photo, Gleick was anointed the Chairman of the new task force on “scientific ethics and integrity” for the American Geophysical Union in 2011. Leading by example, in 2012 Gleick was outed in a flagrant attempt to anonymously smear the Heartland Institute’s climate skepticism by disseminating documents dishonestly obtained, including a damning but forged memo. Quickly identified by internet skeptics, Gleick finally confessed. Although the forged document was only being disseminated by Gleick, he denied any hand in forgery, and there was not enough evidence to convict him of forgery. In a KQED interview, Michael Mann, likely motivated by self-protection, downplayed Gleick’s underhanded actions as “poor judgement”. Mann then argued the release of the climate-gate emails, emails that had exposed Mann’s own underhanded methods, was a more dastardly deed. To this day, it is still unknown if the release of climate gate emails were the work of a whistle-blower or a hacker.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:28 am

You can find a flake claiming anything you can dream of............. just as you do.

What did the IPCC say about Bears?.....................I assume nothing. BECAUSE: you can find a flake claiming anything you can dream of........just as you do.

..................... just plain.............. silly.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Gord » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:21 am

psychiatry is a scam wrote:has anyone mentioned that bears in warmer areas are going to suffer / eat garbage .
but bears farther north should be ok ? maybe other areas will open up ; but doubt if they will find those areas ; unless
researches interfere and move bears from bad locations -- to above the arctic circle .

Actually, bears farther north would starve, due to the lack of sea ice. They won't be able to reach their food sources. Bears that move south won't find any replacement food sources, so they'll interact more with humans, which will be a problem -- northern residents are already seeing more and more bears, who have to be monitored and move when they become too dependent on eating garbage or invading homes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/pro ... -1.3522375
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:28 am

Gord wrote: -- northern residents are already seeing more and more bears


Indeed the Inuits have steadfastly claimed that it is the time of the most polar bears!
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:01 am

article continued..

Links embedded in original http://landscapesandcycles.net/polar-be ... -lies.html

However, consistent with Mann’s efforts to promote polar bears as an icon of catastrophic global warming, Mann expressed no concern about Gleick’s fake polar bear picture. Indeed Mann was actively trying to pull on heart strings by mewing in the CBD release, “When I ventured up to Hudson Bay in mid-November and saw the undernourished polar bears with their cubs, sitting around at the shore of the Hudson Bay, waiting for the then month-overdue sea ice to arrive so they could begin hunting for food, it suddenly came home for me. For the first time in my life, I actually saw climate change unfolding before my eyes. It was a sobering moment, and one I’ll never forget.” In contrast to such storytelling, the unpublished research data from Stirling and Lunn, determined polar bear’s Body Condition Index for Hudson Bay bears had been improving since 1998 (in Landscapes and Cycles, p. 217). Improving body condition was also consistent with the increasing number of Hudson Bay bears estimated in subsequent surveys.

Image

Susan Crockford runs the website polarbearscience.com, that aggregates the most up-to-date, peer-reviewed science and media releases by polar bear researchers. For example, Crockford reported the latest survey showing a healthy rebounding Western Hudson Bay population, months before the Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) researchers publicized the increase. The PBSG had incorrectly predicted a dramatic decline in Hudson Bay bears, so their tardiness to expose their own shortcomings is understandable. Crockford also reported the lack of consensus among polar bear researchers. While Enviornment Canada agreeed with the latest survey that estimated a healthy 1030 Western Hudson Bay bears, PBSG alarmist Andrew Derocher was actively pushing a much lower estimate of 800 bears to the media and suggesting the bears were doomed. This too is understandable as Derocher was invested in his earlier predictions that “by the middle of this century, two-thirds of the polar bears will be gone from their current populations”

Nonetheless despite mutiple surveys suggesting polar bear abundance was and is increasing, others tried to deny the evidence and suggest bears were starving and still on the brink of extinction. In 2015, photos by Kerstin Langenberger and once again by Paul Nicklin were pumped on social media, suggesting bears were suffering from a climate catastrophe. Who were these photographers?
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:19 am

At least we can count of Jimmy for the thousand lies.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:40 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:At least we can count of Jimmy for the thousand lies.


Gawdzilla , please quote just one lie I have ever made, and provide a link to it. Otherwise you join the ranks of disgusting dishonest snipers!

Unless you are hopelessly gullible that a photo of an old bear is evidence of climate change, I encourage you to keep reading, so that you may learn something.

excerpt from the essay continued... https://goo.gl/Emaouy

Nonetheless despite mutiple surveys suggesting polar bear abundance was and is increasing, others tried to deny the evidence and suggest bears were starving and still on the brink of extinction. In 2015, photos by Kerstin Langenberger and once again by Paul Nicklin were pumped on social media, suggesting bears were suffering from a climate catastrophe. Who were these photographers?

Image

The dying bear above was put on Facebook by Kerstin Langenberger whom internet articles referred to as just a German photographer. But a little digging revealed she is a Greenpeace activist, which is consistent with her catastrophic narratives that accompanied her photo and contradicted our best science. She stated, “With the pack ice retreating further and further north every year, they tend to be stuck on land where there’s not much food,” and “many times I have seen horribly thin bears, and those were exclusively females – like this one here” and “Only once I have seen a bear getting a big fat ‘5,’ but several times I have seen dead bears and bears like this one: a mere ‘1’ on the scale, doomed to death.” [polar bears’ body condition is often rated from 1(dangerously thin) to 5 (fat)].

However contradicting Langenberger’s narrative, Norwegian Polar Institute researcher Kit Kovacs stated there’s reason to question claims that the number of animals experiencing such hardships is increasing. Our monitoring work indicates that (on-average) bears in the Svalbard population have NOT declined in condition over the last two decades – based on male body masses and fat levels”. Similarly, in the South Beaufort Sea population, female body condition had improved despite reduced summer ice.

Image

Also in 2015, Nicklin posted his photo of a dead bear that went viral. Journalist Andrew Freedman promoted the picture in Mashable writing, “Global warming may have led to the death of this polar bear.” Presenting a thin veneer of objectivity, he quotes polar bear researcher Ian Stirling who suggested that Nicklen’s photo shows a bear that most likely, but not certainly, died as a result of starvation related to sea ice melt. But Stirling’s remarks must be taken with a grain of salt as there is absolutely no evidence to support why the bear died. Furthermore, Stirling has appeared slightly schizophrenic lately as has been detailed. For example despite his research showing cycles of heavy spring ice had been most detrimental to seals and bears, Stirling and Derocher’s review of polar bear “science” used the very same research to falsely imply that less summer ice was the problem.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:58 am

You LIE by posting that Polar Bear Population growth or decline is evidence for or against the causation/physics of AGW as opposed to its consequences.

A basic failure to present the science competently.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby xouper » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:19 am

Jim Steele wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:At least we can count of Jimmy for the thousand lies.


Gawdzilla , please quote just one lie I have ever made, and provide a link to it. Otherwise you join the ranks of disgusting dishonest snipers!


Gawdzilla joined the ranks of disgusting dishonest snipers a long time ago. Hit-and-run is one of his favorite tactics. That's not to say he doesn't also make positive contributions to this forum sometimes. He's a mixed bag of both.

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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:06 am

Gee X...... when you constantly perform in a certain way..... you lose any audience you might have had by being less kneejerk. And by you, I mean Jimbo and you. Mixed bag.... but still constantly performing in your own certain ways....although I did note you swerve into Jimbo's lane by starting to post animal pictures instead of apologies for getting facts and arguments wrong. You have pulled away from that a bit to your own center: commenting on how disgusting everyone else is.

Know what I mean?
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby xouper » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:15 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Gee X...... when you constantly perform in a certain way..... you lose any audience you might have had by being less kneejerk.


That's amusing advice coming from you, of all people.


bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: You have pulled away from that a bit to your own center: commenting on how disgusting everyone else is.


So when Gawdzilla (or anyone else for that matter) singles out a particular person to ridicule or badmouth, that's OK with you. Apparently it's only when I do it that you get your panties in a twist. It seems if you didn't have double standards, you wouldn't have any standards at all.

Know what I mean?

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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:17 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:You LIE by posting that Polar Bear Population growth or decline is evidence for or against the causation/physics of AGW as opposed to its consequences.

A basic failure to present the science competently.


Boobo There you go again fabricating what I argue and NO LINKs to back up your lies!

I have never said polar bears prove or disprove the physics.That is just more boobo BS!

It does however expose all the alarmists' predictions that rising CO2 will kill polar bears.

Its just another failed catastrophic prediction and you are going to have to live wth it. So stop whining about the truth!
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:20 am

xouper wrote:Gawdzilla joined the ranks of disgusting dishonest snipers a long time ago. Hit-and-run is one of his favorite tactics


Agreed! That is all I have ever seen from him. Never an original thought and never a critical analyses.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:16 am

Jimbo: guilt by association. Like X is to you.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:13 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Jimbo: guilt by association. Like X is to you.


Boobo's scientific critical thinking skills are a thing to behold. ROTFLMAO
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:58 pm

essay continued

In contrast to those 2015 photos of starving bears, Crockford’s website was one of the few places where scientific reports of a healthy bear population could be found. Contradicting Langenberger and Nicklin’s story-telling of dead bears strewn across Svalbard due to climate change, Crockford posted links to actual researchers from the Norwegian Polar Institute who reported fat bears in Svalbard.

Researchers were reporting

“The polar bears on Svalbard is round and full, thanks to a good [ice year] and good hunting opportunities.” And “… Polar bears were fat, many looked like pigs”, says polar researcher at the Norwegian Polar Institute, Jon Aars to the High North News. Furthermore the Svalbard bears are part of the Barent Sea population and in 2017 Crockford relayed the most recent survey data showing Barent Sea Bears have been increasing. But such facts don’t have the emotional appeal as Nicklin’s fanciful pictorial story telling.

Image


The Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) had created a status table in 2009 to illustrate the trends of each polar bear population. Above is their 2010 version. The trends are boldly shown in red for declining and green for stable or increasing populations. Eight populations were believed to be declining of which 6 were considered very likely to decline further. Only 3 populations were considered stable and only 1 was increasing. These declining PBSG estimates also went viral, and websites such as the one run by psychologist John Cook, who is now part of the well-funded Center for Climate Change Communication, posted an article concluding, “Current analysis of subpopulations where data is sufficient clearly shows that those subpopulations are mainly in decline” and thus support the ESA listing of polar bears as threatened.

In contrast in Landscapes and Cycles I documented how bear populations since 2010 were definitely increasing based on latest research.That analyses has been confirmed while earlier PBSG hype of declining populations and speculation of coming extirpations have not survived the test of time.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:53 pm

Essay continued. http://landscapesandcycles.net/polar-be ... -lies.html

Fortunately Susan Crockford’s Polar Bear Science blog has continuoulsy discussed population trends as reported by bear experts plus PBSG’s status updates. While the PBSG removes their old tables, Crockford’s website serves as an archive that allows the public to readily witness how the bears have been increasing. For example the 2014 table (below) revealed the good news that only 3 of the past 8 populations were still declining, one was still increasing, and the stable populatons had doubled to 6.

Oddly in 2017 the PBSG eliminated the trends from their population table. The most likely reason for this omission would be that none of the bear populations are currently declining. Every population would be green or data deficient. Despite rising CO2 and reduced summer sea ice, polar bears are doing quite well and that contradicted the their predictions.

Of the 3 previously declining populations listed in their 2014 status report, the Baffin Bay population has now increased from 1,546 in 2004 to 2,826 in the most recent survey. The Kane Basin bears, that suffer from heavy ice, were estimated at 167 in 1997 but rose to 357 in 2014. The South Beaufort Sea population estimation remained unchanged but this population has been heavily criticized for poor analyses of mark and recatpure data.




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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:33 pm

Article continued, all links found in original http://landscapesandcycles.net/polar-be ... -lies.html

In the face of rapid increases in the Baffin Bay bear population, a social media splash of Nicklin’s starving bear on Baffin Island appears to be another orchestrated attempt to resuscitate the failing claim that climate change is killing bears. National Geographic who sponsored Nicklin reports by “telling the story of one polar bear, Nicklen hopes to convey a larger message about how a warming climate has deadly consequences.” The NY Times pushed the video with similar headlines: Video of Starving Polar Bear ‘Rips Your Heart Out of Your Chest’. The Washington Post hyped the bear as evidence of an environmental disaster with the headlines, ‘We stood there crying’: Emaciated polar bear seen in 'gut-wrenching' video and photos. If you searched the internet for an objective scientific examination, oddly no matter how many variations of “starving polar bears” are queried Google’s first link brings up the WWF’s plea for money to save the bears, and perhaps a violation of net neutrality.

Snopes who advertises itself as a fact-checker of truth, rated Nicklin’s starving bear video as “TRUE”. But Snopes’ bias is revealed by its discussion on the photo’s relevance, which pushes catastrophic climate change speculation. Snopes quotes polar bear researcher Steve Amstrup, who’s has flipped flopped on several bear issues over his career and whose “expertise model” has been severely criticized by colleagues in released emails. Amstrup promotes the starving bear photo on his website, again with the obligatory thin veneer of objectivity stating, “we cannot say, from the footage captured here, that this bear’s malnutrition was caused by global warming and its associated sea ice loss”. He then launches his speculative catastrophic message, “The problem is that an ever-warmer future means polar bears will have less and less access to their seal prey, so the rate at which bears die from malnutrition/starvation will increase. So, regardless of the proximate cause of this bear’s condition, this heart-wrenching footage provides us with a warning about the future.” Yet not a word about the survey of Baffin Bay bears robustly increasing from 1,546 in 2004 to 2,826 today.


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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:56 pm

Little Jimmy still playing "gotcha science"?
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:10 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Little Jimmy still playing "gotcha science"?


Gawdzilla still playing low-life shoot-the-messenger games when he's incapable of refuting the evidence with a mature scientific argument?
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:12 pm

Something to think about. Why are alarmists so upset about polar bear populations that are increasing, so that they engage in fake news about skinny bears and launch ad hominem attacks against anyone reporting the good news???

The essay continued http://landscapesandcycles.net/polar-be ... -lies.html

Amstrup and Mann are facing an embarrassing professional dilemma. With all the polar bear populations increasing or stable, their predictions that two-thirds of the polar bears will be gone by the middle of this century appears destined for utter failure. They had to do something. Otherwise who would trust a doctor whose past diagnoses were absolutely wrong. So, Harvey, Stirling, Amstrup, Mann and a professor of psychobabble Stephan Lewandowsky, banded together as coauthors of the paper Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy that "fortuitously" gets publicized alongside NIcklin’s starving bear hype.

Their paper acknowledges observations that polar bears have yet to be harmed writing, “Although the effects of warming on some polar-bear subpopulations are not yet documented and other subpopulations are apparently still faring well.” But they then confuse speculation with proven facts by suggesting “the fundamental relationship between polar-bear welfare and sea-ice availability is well established.” Clearly the growing bear populations present an undeniable challenge to any belief in the “requirement” of summer ice.

Their paper argued, “a growing body of scientific research reports the wide array of negative effects of AGW on biodiversity” by citing Parmesan whose bogus claims about the negative effects of climate change on wildlife are well documented. Harvey, Stirling, Amstrup and Mann confuse speculative hypotheses with “fundamental relationship”. Published observations have shown heavy springtime ice is more harmful for seals and bears. Observations by Arrigo determined that reduced ice, whether natural or anthropogenic, has increased phytoplankton productivity and bolstered the Arctic food web, while fishery researchers find that less ice and warmer temperatures increase Arctic cod abundance that is required to sustain the seals that sustain the bears.
Last edited by Jim Steele on Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:45 am

Jim Steele wrote:Something to think about. Why are alarmists so upset that polar bear populations are increasing they are engage in fake news about skinny bears .....blah, blah.


for the same reasons deniers post entire articles 3 paragraphs at a time.

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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:51 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: for the same reasons deniers post entire articles 3 paragraphs at a time.


You mean because Its out of great kindness for those who are really slow on the uptake
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:52 pm

speaking of slow: you never have connected what polar bears numbers have to do with AGW. You like to conflate the general consensus of qualified scientist and the IPCC and 100% of Scientific Societies with whatever flake you can find that says something loopy or debateable as if it was part of the evidence for AGW. Never with the agreed upon basics.

Polar bears are much like you: irrelevant.

Prove me wrong: what did the IPCC say about Polar Bears that is wrong? (tick tock)
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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:25 pm

Here's a quote from the weepy-eyed fraudster of climate alarmism Michael Mann

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news ... -2010.html

“Many climate scientists, like myself, study climate change by poring over large data sets and running climate model simulations. Global warming can at times seem very distant, almost an abstract concept,” said Dr. Michael E. Mann, professor of meteorology at Penn State University. “When I ventured up to Hudson Bay in mid-November and saw the undernourished polar bears with their cubs, sitting around at the shore of the Hudson Bay, waiting for the then month-overdue sea ice to arrive so they could begin hunting for food, it suddenly came home for me. For the first time in my life, I actually saw climate change unfolding before my eyes. It was a sobering moment, and one I’ll never forget.”


Here's a typical poor starving polar bear

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Re: The Polar-Bear-Gate Saga: How a picture is worth a thousand lies - Paul Nicklen and Michael Mann vs Susan Crockford

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:27 pm

To finish the essay

Image

Their paper acknowledges observations that polar bears have yet to be harmed writing, “Although the effects of warming on some polar-bear subpopulations are not yet documented and other subpopulations are apparently still faring well.” But they then confuse speculation with proven facts by suggesting “the fundamental relationship between polar-bear welfare and sea-ice availability is well established.” Clearly the growing bear populations present an undeniable challenge to any belief in the “requirement” of summer ice.

Their paper argued, “a growing body of scientific research reports the wide array of negative effects of AGW on biodiversity” by citing Parmesan whose bogus claims about the negative effects of climate change on wildlife are well documented. Harvey, Stirling, Amstrup and Mann confuse speculative hypotheses with “fundamental relationship”. Published observations have shown heavy springtime ice is more harmful for seals and bears. Observations by Arrigo determined that reduced ice, whether natural or anthropogenic, has increased phytoplankton productivity and bolstered the Arctic food web, while fishery researchers find that less ice and warmer temperatures increase Arctic cod abundance that is required to sustain the seals that sustain the bears.

Because skeptic websites like Crockford’s polarbearscience.com, Anthony Watts’ WUWT, and many others are the best source for alternative explanations that challenge catastrophic hypotheses, they are denigrated by these supposed objective scientists. As mounting evidence continues to turn against their prior polar bear predictions Harvey, Stirling, Amstrup, Mann and Lewandowsky’s were running low on scientific ammunition. So now they chose to publish a paper, solely aimed at shooting the messengers. They offered no scientific facts about polar bears that contradicted anything Crockford had published. Their arguments were based solely on the fallacy of authority, authorities whose predictions are failing. Their paper is nothing more than a smear campaign hoping to suppress the upwelling call for more debate. Such tactics, tactics that try to obscure any evidence that challenges a failing hypothesis, are the real attacks on the scientific process. That is why Mann has been labeled by some as a disgrace to the profession. And whether or not Nicklin’s latest wretched polar bear photo is part of an orchestrated attempt to resuscitate their failed predictions, the media hype reveals that such photos, taken out of context, are worth a thousand lies.
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