Animals may adapt to global warming.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:36 pm

I don't think the global warming itself will kill as many people as the disintegration of modern society that will follow. An unsteady ziggurat is easily toppled.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:13 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:I don't think the global warming itself will kill as many people as the disintegration of modern society that will follow. An unsteady ziggurat is easily toppled.

Yes..... thats the whole point of: WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE. Tipping points, their consequences, and the fragility of society/culture.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:18 pm

Anyway, preparing for the worst case scenario means the less-than-worst case scenarios would be dealt with.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:49 pm

Outof breath..

If you look at my posts, you will find I never said that 'space will save us.' I said that we will have asteroid mining, which is quite different. What asteroid mining will do is provide an abundance of rare metals, like platinum, technicium, iridium etc. These materials are needed for the construction of sophisticated electronic devices. There is no need for asteroid mining for common metals, since they are abundant right here on Earth, and more sophisticated mining methods (yes, including robots) will continue to provide them in sufficient quantity.

The rise in sea level will impact coastal areas, but this will take a long time. Within 100 years, we will see a rise of between 30 cm and one meter. Most likely less than half a meter. That gives humanity the time to adapt.

As I have pointed out before, increases in wealth happen at a greater rate for poorer nations. Bangladesh at 7% per annum. This, over 100 years, is time to allow for adaptation. Especially since there will be a task force of sophisticated robots to do the grunt work.

Please note that I have not said that global warming is good. The more humanity can mitigate global warming and reduce its effects, the better. But my thesis is simply that global warming will not wipe us out. Humanity will survive, and barring some different disaster, will continue to grow technologically.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:55 pm

During the early Eocene, the avg temp was about 30C and the poles were ice free. The biosphere did just fine.

Civilization may have some issues with global warming, but the biosphere won't.

For those who like to live in caves and forage for roots and berries, AGW is not a threat.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:04 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:During the early Eocene, the avg temp was about 30C and the poles were ice free. The biosphere did just fine.

Civilization may have some issues with global warming, but the biosphere won't.

For those who like to live in caves and forage for roots and berries, AGW is not a threat.

Was that a "rapidly" developing status of the planet?
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:12 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:During the early Eocene, the avg temp was about 30C and the poles were ice free. The biosphere did just fine.

Civilization may have some issues with global warming, but the biosphere won't.



Thank you, Oleg. After arguing with Bobbo, it is nice to see a rational post. (Although I think you should double check that average temperature.)

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby robinson » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:24 pm

OutOfBreath wrote:But I am in the "it's going to be rough and probably get rougher, especially if we dont take this seriously" camp.
The thing about an actual climate change, say if for some reason we reach a period like the MWP, it would actually benefit some places. A lot.

The constant harping of "it's all bad" or "the planet will become almost "unlivable" are idioc.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:43 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote: (Although I think you should double check that average temperature.)

I did. The temp range was much flatter then, so it is not directly comparable to now. Basically, most of the world was like a nice day on the beach.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:52 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote:During the early Eocene, the avg temp was about 30C and the poles were ice free. The biosphere did just fine.

Civilization may have some issues with global warming, but the biosphere won't.

For those who like to live in caves and forage for roots and berries, AGW is not a threat.

Was that a "rapidly" developing status of the planet?

In geological terms, yes; in human terms, no.

Some ocean ecosystems will suffer, but terrestrial ones probably won't suffer much. The biosphere thriving does not mean that all current species will thrive. (The Eocene was noted for rapid evolution - most modern day orders of mammals had their origin then, at least as far as can be told from the fossil record.)

However, with the GOP gutting every policy which separates humans from baboons, AGW may not even get a chance to destroy civilization (such as it is).
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:56 pm

You speak so confidently. What do you know that we don't?
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:05 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:You speak so confidently. What do you know that we don't?

Where my moles and tattoos are.

Seriously, where is the threat to the biosphere? The biosphere survived Chicxulub, and the end of the Permian (extensive volcanism, poisonous gas etc.). Some ecosystems will see dramatic shifts, but most won't, at least, not the terrestrial ones.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:06 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:You speak so confidently. What do you know that we don't?

Where my moles and tattoos are.

Seriously, where is the threat to the biosphere? The biosphere survived Chicxulub, and the end of the Permian (extensive volcanism, poisonous gas etc.). Some ecosystems will see dramatic shifts, but most won't, at least, not the terrestrial ones.

Okay, so just whistling in the dark. Gotcha.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:37 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:You speak so confidently. What do you know that we don't?

Where my moles and tattoos are.

Seriously, where is the threat to the biosphere? The biosphere survived Chicxulub, and the end of the Permian (extensive volcanism, poisonous gas etc.). Some ecosystems will see dramatic shifts, but most won't, at least, not the terrestrial ones.

Okay, so just whistling in the dark. Gotcha.

Sure. It's something to do while waiting for someone to identify a realistic threat to the biosphere, instead of just some localized species.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:46 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:You speak so confidently. What do you know that we don't?

Where my moles and tattoos are.

Seriously, where is the threat to the biosphere? The biosphere survived Chicxulub, and the end of the Permian (extensive volcanism, poisonous gas etc.). Some ecosystems will see dramatic shifts, but most won't, at least, not the terrestrial ones.

Okay, so just whistling in the dark. Gotcha.

Sure. It's something to do while waiting for someone to identify a realistic threat to the biosphere, instead of just some localized species.

Realistic being something YOU approve of, of course.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby TJrandom » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:38 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:TJ: I've always related to Japan as a Fairytale type of place. I think step Number 10,000 up Mnt Fuji made me that way. do you take any comfort that said scenario won't play out for 200 years?.......and RIGHT NOW....hard to see how it will be avoided?


Nope - very little comfort. Some comfort that humanity will no doubt survive, but at significant cost, when most of the effects of AGW could have been avoided. We got to this point thru ignorance - simply not having sufficient knowledge of AGW and the likely impacts, but we continue adding to AGW thru wilful ignorance, selfish deception, and outright evil. Reminds me of Edmund Burkes` famous statement.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:42 pm

Oleg is being sensible. The history of our world does, indeed, show much more disastrous events, which failed entirely to destroy the biosphere. When we see the world going up in temperature by 8 Celsius, and life thriving, it makes our current concern slip into a better perspective.

Global warming is, of course, undesirable, and we need to do what we can to mitigate it (where is Lee Harvey Oswald when we truly need him?). However, it is not going to kill off humanity.

I well remember visiting Singapore. Stinking bloody hot! Yet that tiny island, with no natural resources, left impoverished in 1945 when the Japanese departed, lifted itself into one of the best examples of civilisation despite heat and poverty. A minor temperature rise of 4 Celsius is not going to stop the rest of the world doing the same.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:47 pm

Good {!#%@} grief. Nobody's saying the planet will be devoid of life. The black smokers are a great safety net for that. But things are may get to the point where the last genetic bottleneck looks like Times Square on New Year's Eve. Please stop discussing apples when everybody else is talk oranges.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby JIm Steele » Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:39 am

As the earth warmed after the Little Ice Age, the planet greened, trees in the mountains began to grow again and ocean productivity has nearly tripled.

Naturally that means we all gonna die and societies will crumble ROTFLMAO

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby JIm Steele » Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:44 am

Too bad we can't go back to the "good old days" of the Little Ice Age or

the normal weather of the 1930s


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h/t TonyHeller
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:54 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Good {!#%@} grief. Nobody's saying the planet will be devoid of life. The black smokers are a great safety net for that.

Indeed: Oleg, did you intentionally MEAN to derail the discussion to a totally irrelevant issue? Equating the ever lasting biosphere with what is required for human civilization? Two entirely different, almost apposite issues. I don't care if Earth in the year 2500 experiences a gigantic methane burp and wipes out all multi-cellular life on earth and returns to bacterium in the ocean to start the rebirth of life on earth from that stage of evolution. Yes, the biosphere is just fine....but thats not the issue.

Human Civilization: a complex interactive world covering carpet of technologically advancing human beings. How much money can go into mining robots on asteroids when every major city on earth needs to be rebuilt on ground 200 feet higher. We can't even begin to appreciate the disruption that will cause.....even with the time to adapt in the best case scenario. Hmmm....ha, ha..well, I can "imagine" it.... just don't know how well my imagination matches up to what can actually be done. Science Fiction: may be the death of us all. HEY!!!!!------>WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!..... its in the Taro Cards.

And Gawd: nice subtle reference to the smokers. They will destroy snowball earth....another totally healthy biosphere for the Olegs of the afterworld.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Major Malfunction » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:29 am

We're wasting it all on sport, religion, and dragons sitting on piles of gold.

Sounds like an anime plot.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby TJrandom » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:33 am

Too bad indeed - it looks to me like we will wish for another little ice age.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:34 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Good {!#%@} grief. Nobody's saying the planet will be devoid of life. The black smokers are a great safety net for that.

Indeed: Oleg, did you intentionally MEAN to derail the discussion to a totally irrelevant issue? Equating the ever lasting biosphere with what is required for human civilization? Two entirely different, almost apposite issues. I don't care if Earth in the year 2500 experiences a gigantic methane burp and wipes out all multi-cellular life on earth and returns to bacterium in the ocean to start the rebirth of life on earth from that stage of evolution. Yes, the biosphere is just fine....but thats not the issue.

Human Civilization: a complex interactive world covering carpet of technologically advancing human beings. How much money can go into mining robots on asteroids when every major city on earth needs to be rebuilt on ground 200 feet higher. We can't even begin to appreciate the disruption that will cause.....even with the time to adapt in the best case scenario. Hmmm....ha, ha..well, I can "imagine" it.... just don't know how well my imagination matches up to what can actually be done. Science Fiction: may be the death of us all. HEY!!!!!------>WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!..... its in the Taro Cards.

And Gawd: nice subtle reference to the smokers. They will destroy snowball earth....another totally healthy biosphere for the Olegs of the afterworld.

I keep saying: It's the human equation that's going for a {!#%@}, not the biosphere, and some people can't bring their heads around to seeing that I'm not saying AGW is harmless. It isn't. Civilization is going to take a big hit; at least some parts of it will, and there will be blowback to the rest. That's if there is sufficient political will to do what is necessary to mitigate the massive downside.

Personally, I don't think the political will is strong enough, or timely enough, to accomplish much. No, we're not all gonna die, but it might be a good idea to stake out your cave and learn to forage.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:37 pm

Strawmanning a person's argument is tacit admission that one doesn't have a viable response.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:52 pm

Oleg: thats the opinion I would think you would have..........how did I read your earlier post so incorrectly?

So..........to follow up/challenge/further define whatever it is that LANCE thinks is easily adapted to: say LANCE: what is your over/under bet on whether or not Japan will be with us in 200 years from now? (Hint: the words chosen to invite the quibble.)
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:07 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: How much money can go into mining robots on asteroids when every major city on earth needs to be rebuilt on ground 200 feet higher.


Another Bobbo exaggeration.
The prediction is a sea level rise of half a meter in 100 years. The 200 feet higher scenario cannot happen, unless every drop of frozen water on the planet melts, which is not going to happen. If it did, it would take 1000 years.

But the asteroid mining thing is not going to happen either, unless it is profitable, and that will be the case if the products of such mining can be delivered to Earth at the right cost, in sufficient quantity. If it is profitable, then it is so because the products (like platinum etc) will be needed.

Japan is not going to suffer too much, because it has the wealth to build what needs to be built, and can move what cannot be saved onto higher ground. Remember that we are talking of a half meter rise. The sea level may rise more, of course, in another 200 to 300 years. But that is not so likely, since that amount of time is enough to slow global warming. Finagle only knows how advanced human technology will be to 200 years! I seriously doubt anyone will be burning coal for energy.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:52 pm

Japan is the size of California, with tillable land the size of Maine, and a population of >127.3 million. You can blow off loss of any amount of land in a casual {!#%@} fashion, but the Japanese will feel it, badly. Gojira never did the damage that's coming.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Major Malfunction » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:46 pm

{!#%@} Japan, and all the other countries! We're going interstellar. And that's the final word. Nuff said, right?
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:58 pm

Major Malfunction wrote:{!#%@} Japan, and all the other countries! We're going interstellar. And that's the final word. Nuff said, right?

Sorry, but Matt Damon's the only one who made it back. Well rehearsed story, of course.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:51 pm

The biggest factor governing welfare in the warming days to come will be wealth. Japan is already a world leader in many of the relevant technologies, such as robotics. Japan will suffer less than most nations. Do not forget that the sea level rise over the next 100 years is only half a meter, and we have no guarantee that there will be any more after that. Japan is likely to thrive.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Major Malfunction » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:54 pm

Just don't put Matt Damon in one of those giant robots. He's a really bad actor.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:29 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:The biggest factor governing welfare in the warming days to come will be wealth. Japan is already a world leader in many of the relevant technologies, such as robotics. Japan will suffer less than most nations. Do not forget that the sea level rise over the next 100 years is only half a meter, and we have no guarantee that there will be any more after that. Japan is likely to thrive.

You keep making these bald assertions. Why do you do that?
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:52 pm

Because they are true.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:23 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Because they are true.

You know what a bald assertion is, right? It's your unsupported word. {!#%@} that {!#%@}.
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Lance Kennedy
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:40 am

No, Gawd. It is YOUR unsupported word that what I said is a bald assertion.

Actually, the truth is that I am not really sure what you are focussing on. So which of my statements is the one you take offense at?

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:02 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:No, Gawd. It is YOUR unsupported word that what I said is a bald assertion.

Actually, the truth is that I am not really sure what you are focussing on. So which of my statements is the one you take offense at?

Your BS is noted. Buh bye.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:00 am

That is an evasion, Gawd.
Which of my statements do you take exception to?

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:26 am

Lance Kennedy wrote: Japan will suffer less than most nations. Do not forget that the sea level rise over the next 100 years is only half a meter, and we have no guarantee that there will be any more after that. Japan is likely to thrive.

"..... any more of that..." //// whaaaaaaa? You mean the Earth is going to heat up because of increasing co2 and then with continuing INCREASING co2, its all going to stop? You got a crap load of magical non-think going on there.

All the hating scenarios talk about leading to tipping points creating even more rapid heating. Its NOT LINEAR. Ice melts creating LESS light reflective surfaces and MORE heat absorbing surfaces and the heating goes up dramatically.... not the reverse.

Amusing you think it is no big challenge to move factories and towns from silted in FLAT valleys to mountain slopes of 15 to 25 % and more.

Science............... or personality? .............. I do admit my consternation regarding the all too calm "dry" tone of the IPCC papers and predictions. Even my hysteria doesn't bring it back to anything like what I fear should really be going on: Scientists setting their hair on fire.............. but ................ we are all only hooman.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:46 pm

It is kind of ironic, Bobbo, that you term yourself pragmatic. Your proper name is Bobbo the superstitious. Your firm belief in future catastrophe is based on emotion, not logic, and is therefore superstition. Every time you come up with another spurious rationalisation to support your belief in catastrophe, you demonstrate once more your superstition.

LiKE the straw man statement about me claiming more CO2 and then continued increasing CO2 leading to warming stopping. I have never said that, and your false claim is just another rationalisation for superstition.

On factories in Japan.
No. They will not be moved to slopes of 25 degrees or more. Japan has lots, and lots of high ground that is much flatter than that. Most of Japan is well above the half meter that sea levels will rise over the next 100 years, and most of Japan is well above 3 meters, which is all sea levels are likely to rise to even in 300 years. Your alarmist arguments are just plain silly.

You have fallen smack into the middle of the nowcast fallacy. You look at one trend and assume it will continue, and make prediction by ignoring every other trend. Like predicting disaster by global warming, and totally ignoring all the trends in both reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the trends in future technological capability. Ironically, the USA is emitting less greenhouse gas now than it has in 30 years. The reason is a technological advance celled fracking, which opened up natural gas. This permitted gas to be burned instead of coal. Since burning gas emits far less greenhouse gas per unit energy than burning coal, this led to a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

Future technological advances will mean even less dependence on fossil fuels. For example, advances in battery technology are rapidly leading to cars that do not use fuel. There are advances in nuclear power which will lead to reduced dependence on fossil fuels for generating electricity. When the Trump moron is gone, the USA, and other nations will develop these alternatives, and fossil fuel useage will diminish.

Of course, you, Bobbo, will not believe it since it is not yet happening. Typical nowcast fallacy.


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