Animals may adapt to global warming.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:08 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Ask your wife, Bobbo. What is the basis of science? Is it studying something with the word 'science' in it, or is it using the scientific method to discover truth? Let me know what she says.

No need to bother wifey with such definitional concerns. Everyone knows SCIENCE is based on the ratio of flour to fat to sugar to liquids in the main with temp control so very important. Just like AGW.

Everything connected to everything else.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:20 am

I suspect you would be embarassed to find 'wifey' agreeing with me.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:42 am

What "point" do you think you are making that is not bone headed OBVIOUS? It is actually very funny you demand clarification of something that is not at issue. What is at issue, which I suspect you don't even recognize is that the study of History is not the application of Science. As you do so often, you have said as much, but then you post with the very opposite meaning at the same time.

So............did you grow up speaking Maori or any other language making English a secondary pursuit on your part? Something simple probably explains your faulty lucidity.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:36 am

Bobbo

You are the one who claims history is not science, with the implication following that the lessons of history are not valid. This followed my statement that my views on human progress are shown to be true by history. Your argument is that if history is not science, the rest is invalid.

Well, history is science whenever the scientific method is used to uncover historical truths. Science is everywhere that the scientific method is in use. My mechanic (a really nice guy) uses science in his work. For example, he might be presented with a car that does not start. He takes a look and notices that the starter motor is all corroded. He forms a hypothesis. "This car does not start because the connections on the starter motor are insulated by the corrosion." He then uses this hypothesis to make a prediction. "If I clean the connections, the car will start." He then tests this prediction. If the car starts after cleaning the connections, his hypothesis is demonstrated to be probably correct.

Thus, my mechanic is a scientist, because he uses the scientific method. In fact, science is everywhere. I could generate examples from cooking, cleaning, house renovation etc. Science is everywhere that the scientific method is used. Your idea that history is not science is not correct any time that the scientific method is used in history.

Thus, my assertion that the lessons of recent history reveal truth is not unscientific.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Poodle » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:49 am

I have to take issue, bobbo. The study of history and its rather more hands-on partner, archaeology, is an almost perfect application of the scientific method. What else could it be? Do you think historians simply take shots in the dark? No - they study the available evidence and formulate hypotheses, test those hypotheses, subject them to peer review, and have even been known to change their minds when further evidence becomes available.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:35 pm

Ha, ha. What a nice way to wake up, all alert to the world and what not. Only the fastest look askance I am enthused that Poodle joins the discussion. "We think with words....and flower with ideas." "How do you know what you know, and how do you change your mind?" "Ever read the dictionary?" Let's go:

Lance Kennedy wrote:Bobbo

You are the one who claims history is not science, with the implication following that the lessons of history are not valid.
This is completely made up/filled in NONSENSE. What I posted was (by memory): "History is History, Science is Science. The two should not be confused." You demonstrate this logical incoherence in this review of the discussion so far. Where for Freaking Christ's Sake is ANY IMPLICATION AT ALL that the lessons of history are not valid? Even wifey doesn't get this nuts. I feel better now about all my money and our time spent in that direction. A donkey is a donkey, a spoon is a spoon. Each valid for its own function.... not to be confused with one another.

When such clear distinctions are so hopelessly muddled up.......who's riding the Jack-Ass? SIMPLE WORDS..... and what they mean: in simple terms, or as deep as you wish to go.

What a silly statement. worse, its starting to look like you are truly stuck in this rut of conflation and wholly sloppy thinking..... Ha, ha....I wonder how far along Poodle goes with this? All askance to be focused on in time.
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Lance Kennedy wrote:This followed my statement that my views on human progress are shown to be true by history. Your argument is that if history is not science, the rest is invalid.
Donkeys and spoons. HISTORY is used to examine history (human affairs). SCIENCE is used to examine science (the natural world). Two different magisteriums to reference Jay Gould and his notion that I also disagree with...I'm thinking Schemer and Dawkins do as well. NOBODY uses history to "prove" what is going to happen in the future. HISTORY looks to the past and says NOTHING about the FUTURE. I like the saying that goes: "History does not repeat itself ((bobbo: the very engine of science)), but rather, it rhymes ((bobbo: a very sublime understanding of what analysis from context means and nicely tying into my own background in literature....but I dither))" Like science, history gets greatly abused when it is wrenched into such positions. First time in a long time, lets turn to the dictionary?

History: The discipline that records and interprets past events involving human beings
Science: Study of the physical and natural world using theoretical models and data from experiments or observation

Hmmmm..... glad I looked it up because I was thinking to comment there was overlap between the two disciplines but the emphasis was on their differences. From the two first definitions found........ there is no overlap.

The dictionary: make it your friend.
xxxxx

Lance Kennedy wrote: Well, history is science whenever the scientific method is used to uncover historical truths. Science is everywhere that the scientific method is in use.
Ha, ha...... what a dismal display of pure ignorance. TOTAL: lack of discipline. Let this be your discovered new bedrock: History is History, Science is Science: don't be a jack-ass just because you can put one word after another in correct grammatical sequences. The words have meaning that don't change by apparition. "Scientific Method." Lets look that up too:

Scientific Method: A method of investigation involving observation and theory to test scientific hypotheses

Hmmmm....a stronger disassociation than I thought. GAWD=======>I love the dictionary. A third party neutral source of accumulated wisdom, philosophy, history, culture and so forth. Does touch on science, but not so much in what matters.

So.....while I will always be open to special limited examples on the edge of one domain crossing to the other, can you give an example of the scientific method being applied to History? I'm all eyes in anticipation for what ham fisted BS you will come up with. Seriously: prove me wrong.

xxxxxx

Lance Kennedy wrote: Science is everywhere that the scientific method is in use. My mechanic (a really nice guy) uses science in his work. For example, he might be presented with a car that does not start. He takes a look and notices that the starter motor is all corroded. He forms a hypothesis. "This car does not start because the connections on the starter motor are insulated by the corrosion." He then uses this hypothesis to make a prediction. "If I clean the connections, the car will start." He then tests this prediction. If the car starts after cleaning the connections, his hypothesis is demonstrated to be probably correct.

Thus, my mechanic is a scientist, because he uses the scientific method. In fact, science is everywhere. I could generate examples from cooking, cleaning, house renovation etc. Science is everywhere that the scientific method is used. Your idea that history is not science is not correct any time that the scientific method is used in history.

Evidently, gentle mocking makes no impact on your appreciation of the subject. What do you think my diversion to my souffle was all about? The flour-fat-sugar-liquid-temp reference? What are you??????: a complete BONE HEAD.... or what?

"What are you.... a complete BONE HEAD... or what?" /// Sounds down right Shakespearean to me. I guess we all here are poets, playwrights, and great authors as well as scientists just as well? I use science when I fart, and then when I write it down here, I'm an historian too.

It is ALL definitional ((a human cultural artifact based on general acceptance)) and subject to degrees. Would you put your car mechanic or my souffle in the same category as Darwin, Einstein, Hubble...etc? In your favor, they all farted too, but I have a different appreciation for what science, scientists, and the scientific method are in best use.

Words have meaning. When their usefulness in making distinctions is lost, they lose their meaning.
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Lance Kennedy wrote: Thus, my assertion that the lessons of recent history reveal truth is not unscientific.

Name one.

Lance: try something new. Actually respond to counter points made. Go======>
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:55 pm

Poodle wrote:I have to take issue, bobbo. The study of history and its rather more hands-on partner, archaeology, is an almost perfect application of the scientific method.
Given the definitions I dug up just above, that is an interesting premise to support. Lets see where you go with it.

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Poodle wrote:I have to take issue, bobbo. The study of history and its rather more hands-on partner, archaeology, is an almost perfect application of the scientific method. What else could it be?
It could be a different area/process of discovery. History could be History with its analytical tools (deconstruction, collective subconscious applications, feminist analysis.... and on and on). Archeology is archeology...carbon dating, strata contextualization, etc.

The scientific method. Hmmm....are you claiming that any "observation", analysis, measurement, and hypothecation is "the scientific method"? Without running to a thicker dictionary, I'd agree it shares these elements, but my take is that the scientific method's hallmark is: TESTING AND MAKING PREDICTIONS. NOT the hallmark of history...a bit some in archaeology depending on how you define it.

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Poodle wrote:Do you think historians simply take shots in the dark? No - they study the available evidence and formulate hypotheses, test those hypotheses, subject them to peer review, and have even been known to change their minds when further evidence becomes available.
Now that is an interesting conflation of the concept of "testing."...of hypothesizing as well. I see the ambiguity in the word play. Is finding an older structure under a newer one really "testing" anything? its more data gathering in my view. Science does that too but the word/concept of testing is wholly different. Lets turn to our bible:

Test: Any standardized procedure for measuring sensitivity, memory, intelligence, aptitude or personality etc /// I won't go with it, need a thicker dictionary to catch the edge of Archeology. No need. I constantly say: "Its definitional" .... because it is.

I suppose, one can argue the driver of Science is "thinking"? as opposed to rote memorization and regurgitation?? Well, time to run an errand. Now, where did I leave my car keys? I know: lets be a scientist and use the scientific method. I hypothesize my car keys will be in the place I last saw them. Lets test that hypothesis now: Oh.... and there they are.

What a trip.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:07 pm

Bobbo has such a narrow view of science.
Poodle is much smarter.

Science is everywhere. Science is the study of the universe using the scientific method, and that study can be anything. Research psychologists are scientists. Research historians are scientists when they use the scientific method.

Francis Bacon was the first westerner to describe the scientific method, and his emphasis was empiricism. In other words, real world testing. The opposite of science is revelation, which is the basis for religion. Historians do not use revelation.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:11 pm

Poor old Lance. You really don't get it do you. ((Not a question...a declarative statement.))

Look at the Venn diagram for empiricism and science and the scientific method. Hint: you will find three distinct circles.

Munch on that for awhile....while I calculate how to challenge wifey on her bogus 3 year affair... with whom or what, I can only fear.

I welcome Poodle, You, anyone else (Me.... wifey) not even proving me wrong... but just faulty tips along the way. Its how I learn and get smarter.

Know what I mean? (Ha, ha.........................:-)
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:55 pm

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science

Check the definition in the reference above. It emphasizes observation, experimentation, and prediction. That is, real world data, or empiricism. Read the section on the scientific method, which describes clearly what makes science.

The scientific method (and this is a very, very simplified description) is based on hypothesis formation, followed by testable predictions based on the hypothesis, and a real world (or empirical) test of that prediction.

That process is used in a wide range of human activities. Criminology, for example, is a science. There are 'soft' subjects which are sometimes science and sometimes not. Like history and politics. They are scientific when the scientific method of hypothesis, prediction, and empirical test is followed. Because of this, it is not possible to clearly segregate some topics as science and some others as non science. It depends on whether the proper scientific method is followed.

Empiricism means real world, and that does not always mean science. Science involves empirical testing, but the real world exists outside tests.

The problem with idiots like Donald Trump is that they do not always follow science. They use personal revelation. In other words, they accept stuff that 'sounds right' to them. That is why Trump the moron believes that stopping immigration will solve America's problems. There are sociologists, however, who have followed the scientific process and studied what immigrants do to a nation, and found the opposite of what Trump believes. It is sad, Bobbo, to see you on the Trump platform.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:02 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Empiricism means real world, and that does not always mean science. Science involves empirical testing, but the real world exists outside tests.

Yeah... true enough. BUT reaching a consensus on what the real world "is" requires SCIENCE.................. and only science...... if HISTORY is any guide.

Are you working on what your "point" was.....or has that challenge totally missed your gaze?
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:30 am

You have made one correct point, Bobbo. We have got very side tracked.

However, I stand by my initial point. The clear trend of history is towards more science and more technological capability. Global warming will take 100 years to get to the point where it is seriously harmful, and over that 100 years, our capabilities will increase drastically. Hopefully, the warming will be mitigated, after you Americans get rid of Trump, and technology will improve to the point where civilisation will adapt to the harmful effects. There will be no case of "we are all gonna die", and civilisation will not only survive, but will develop till the benefits of economic growth spread to a much larger percentage of the world's population.

There are three major trends which show no sign of reversing. One is science and technology, the second is economic growth, and the third is a reduction in human violence.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:48 pm

Lance: Lets all hope so. My own "emotions" go that way. Its why I reject the position. the bugger is unknown unknowns, many trends lines getting worse not better, and the lag time.

But like the Sun expanding 5 Billion years from now.......looks to me "right now" that other things could well get us before AGW....some kind of ecological collapse due to humans degrading the general environment. Some kind of "compounding" event could take place................but I'm slipping into Sci Fy.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Major Malfunction » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:17 pm

Don't worry. Someone else will fix it.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:52 pm

http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/12 ... an-poverty

The worst kind of scifi. That is, pure speculation.

The trends I mentioned are clear and steady, apart from the short term fluctuations we always see. The problem is that journalists are, as Prof. Steven Pinker says, innumerate. That is, they report anecdotes, rather than clear cut statistically significant data. Sadly, Bobbo falls for the anecdotes. Especially since journalists work to the general principle that bad news sells, and emphasize their bad news anecdotes, even when there is no good data to support them. "If it bleeds, it leads."

A good, science minded person, will instead look for the solid data, rather than the misleading anecdotes. The reference above shows this data. Since 1820, there have been staggering improvements in reducing poverty, improving literacy, increasing health and lifespan, reducing fertility, and making people more free. Only the idiot media keep telling us that things are bad. Compared to any other time in history, things are incredibly good, and still improving.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:40 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/12/23/14062168/history-global-conditions-charts-life-span-poverty

The worst kind of scifi. That is, pure speculation.

The trends I mentioned are clear and steady, apart from the short term fluctuations we always see. The problem is that journalists are, as Prof. Steven Pinker says, innumerate. That is, they report anecdotes, rather than clear cut statistically significant data. Sadly, Bobbo falls for the anecdotes. Especially since journalists work to the general principle that bad news sells, and emphasize their bad news anecdotes, even when there is no good data to support them. "If it bleeds, it leads."

A good, science minded person, will instead look for the solid data, rather than the misleading anecdotes. The reference above shows this data. Since 1820, there have been staggering improvements in reducing poverty, improving literacy, increasing health and lifespan, reducing fertility, and making people more free. Only the idiot media keep telling us that things are bad. Compared to any other time in history, things are incredibly good, and still improving.

The data is pre-Trump.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:58 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote: The data is pre-Trump.


WE may hope that the time period after pre-Trump and before post-Trump is mercifully short.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby TJrandom » Thu Mar 30, 2017 2:54 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote: The data is pre-Trump.


WE may hope that the time period after pre-Trump and before post-Trump is mercifully short.


Maybe just a footnote to document the massive hiccup that lasted just a moment in time.

I liked the education one best - and sat down with my 5th grader grandson to show him what he will be up against in co-worker competition during his career if he enters the workforce just after highschool, or college, or if he goes on to a graduate program. Nice graph!

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Poodle » Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:54 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote: The data is pre-Trump.


WE may hope that the time period after pre-Trump and before post-Trump is mercifully short.


Alternatively, post-pre-Trump and pre-post-Trump. Makes it all sound so much more ... errrmm ... official.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:12 pm

That is alternative news, Poodle.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:24 pm

An interesting item in the latest New Scientist magazine. (25 March 2017, page 12)

The Maldive Islands, which are one of the most threatened nations from sea level rise, have begun a program of 'rebuilding' low lying islands, by building boulder walls and pumping sand inside those walls. They are raising islands by a further three metres.

Of course, this costs money. Fortunately, the Maldives have a thriving tourist industry. Other nations may need foreign aid, or may need to develop their own economies to do the equivalent. But this illustrates a point I keep making. Humans are flexible and adaptable, and will adapt to the impact of global warming.

This is not being presented as an excuse for failing to act against greenhouse emissions. That also needs doing.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:10 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:The Maldive Islands, which are one of the most threatened nations from sea level rise, have begun a program of 'rebuilding' low lying islands, by building boulder walls and pumping sand inside those walls. They are raising islands by a further three metres...... But this illustrates a point I keep making. Humans are flexible and adaptable, and will adapt to the impact of global warming.


Yea verily. One anecdote should give us all comfort.


This is not being presented as an excuse for failing to act against greenhouse emissions.


Ok............. then why "is" it being presented?.................. Go "real" deep.
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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:46 pm

Why, Bobbo, is illustrate my point that humans are adaptable and will cope with the harm from global warming. It is an opposition to your idiotic nihilism.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby TJrandom » Sat Apr 01, 2017 10:11 pm

On the Maldives – it is one thing to build coastal barrier dyke walls with boulders filled in between with sand, and quite another to fill in behind such a wall, raising all of the low level areas of the islands by that 3 meters. Japan, with high mountains has all of the natural resources for such an undertaking, but not the Maldives, where the high is approx. 50ft above sea level.

Their effort may be effective for small wave effect surges, but not for global warming ocean rise – where the water table itself, under the whole island raises. A stop-gap measure at best.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:04 pm

TJ

They are doing it.

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Re: Animals may adapt to global warming.

Postby TJrandom » Sun Apr 02, 2017 4:18 am

Well, when I see it. :roll:


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