Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:38 pm

This chart is t3h @W3z0m3

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Fri Apr 28, 2017 11:40 pm

So many charts...so little time.

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Apr 29, 2017 3:20 am

NIce charts. Although it strays from the issue of the warm blips of the 30s and 40s that data adjustments have obscured, these long term charts clearly show that compared to the last interglacial 100,000 yearas ago, or the mid Holocene thousands of years ago, our current temperatures are cooler despite so much CO2. Good reason to be skeptical
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:04 am

JIm Steele wrote:NIce charts. Although it strays from the issue of the warm blips of the 30s and 40s that data adjustments have obscured, these long term charts clearly show that compared to the last interglacial 100,000 yearas ago, or the mid Holocene thousands of years ago, our current temperatures are cooler despite so much CO2. Good reason to be skeptical


So Jim Steele: take a complicated multifactored cross interacting system and characterize it according to one variable only that seems to fit your desired conclusion.

Shill.............. or dupe?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:43 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:So Jim Steele: take a complicated multifactored cross interacting system and characterize it according to one variable only that seems to fit your desired conclusion.

Shill.............. or dupe?


ROTFLMAO you must be referring to yourself. My argument has long been climate change is complex and multifactorial due to landscapes and natural cycles. Pointing out the evidence of warmer temperatures despite lower CO2 simply adds to the argument that CO2 is not the driver of climate change.

In contrast it is you who always argues rising CO2 must mean we are all gonna die. Shill or dupe indeed
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:50 pm

JIm Steele wrote:Pointing out the evidence of warmer temperatures despite lower CO2 simply adds to the argument that CO2 is not the driver of climate change.


No........it doesn't. High School Science. What about all the other 753 variables? Don't they count at all now that you have found/cherry picked conforming facts in isolation as you so constantly do????

Worse than Bad Science.......this is Bad Thinking without regard to Science.

You really have revealed the fanciful basis for all your thinking on this subject.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:13 pm

"Is CO2 the main climate control knob?"

That is a serious and meaningful question. Is CO2 (and the oceans moderation of it) the actual reason for the ice age cycles? (which are theorized to be started and ended by the sun, but with CO2 as the main feedback/forcing mechanism).
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:14 pm

I would like to actually know the answer.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:27 pm

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Apr 29, 2017 9:46 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Worse than Bad Science.......this is Bad Thinking without regard to Science. You really have revealed the fanciful basis for all your thinking on this subject.


ROTFLMAO It is Great Science, but as you have admitted you do not read or understand scientific papers, and your rant reflects that lack of skill.

Science tries to understand the cause of a given phenomenon by untangling the confounding factors. When climate changes independently of CO2 we can eliminate that factor as a major driver, and focus on the other factors. That's why I wrote the book "Landscapes and Cycles", So that the contributions of other climate factors are better understood and to reveal that the gloom and doom alarmists' obsession with CO2 is inappropriate.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:23 am

JS: No. Simply.....no. Let me "make sense" of what you post by running it thru a filter to make it reasonable: "When climate changes independently of CO2 we can eliminate that factor as a major driver, appreciate the complex interaction of all the factors that affect and drive climate and focus gain a more accurate understanding of the entire process on the other factors.

This is not even science...... just common sense.... both of which you lack.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:25 am

Fight nice, please.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:34 am

robinson wrote:"Is CO2 the main climate control knob?"

That is a serious and meaningful question. Is CO2 (and the oceans moderation of it) the actual reason for the ice age cycles? (which are theorized to be started and ended by the sun, but with CO2 as the main feedback/forcing mechanism).

Co2 is a large factor but as scientists are discovering, as temperature rises so too do mechanisms which result in the release and generation of gases such as methane. For one example, changes in the Arctic region appear to cause alteration of global ocean currents. Much of climate change is driven by a multitude of interrelated fluctuations in the atmosphere and oceans. Which is why "here's another simplified chart" doesn't address the complexity of what is a massive and complex, dynamic situation.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:14 am

Every factor is "large" as that idea may be thought of. The link includes albedo and solar output. That leaves 699 other large factors. Each having their role and interaction. The notion of "simple charts" not really coming to grip with the complexity is an excellent summation.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:39 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:JS: No. Simply.....no. Let me "make sense" of what you post by running it thru a filter to make it reasonable: "When climate changes independently of CO2 we can eliminate that factor as a major driver, appreciate the complex interaction of all the factors that affect and drive climate and focus gain a more accurate understanding of the entire process on the other factors.

This is not even science...... just common sense.... both of which you lack.


ROTFLMAO Bobbo rewrites science to creat a narrative to fit his agenda ROTFLAMO

The complexity of climate is a given. Separating the confounding factors is a requirement to determine what factors are the most powerful drivers of climate change. Without accuarate attribution of the drivers of climate, any predictions are mere guesswork. Not only do CO2 concentrations fail to explain the different temperatures of the interglacials, CO2 driven models fail to explain the rise of of temperatures to the Holocene Opitmum and then the 6k decline in most recent temperatures despite a gradual increase in CO2. Other than the last 50 years of warming which can also be explained by ocean oscillations, CO2 driven models fail simulate climate change. It is not due to a failure to "appreciate the complex interaction of all the factors"! It is due to the CO2 factor failing to account for most change during most temporal frameworks.

BTW There are less than 20 factors that would have any significant impact on climate change. I suspect you pulled your 699 factors from a part of your anatomy where the sun dont shine, (ie bowels or skull)
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Mon May 01, 2017 12:50 am

I guess I have to be more specific...AND LOUD.

STOP POSTING PERSONAL ATTACKS.

Continue and you will no longer be posting here.

You have been warned.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 01, 2017 4:40 am

Co2 driven models SHOULD BE USED..... when its co2 that is driving the climate change.

No reason at all to assume its co2 driving climate change ALL THE TIME.

My concern is that a few decades from now, climate change may be driven by Methane.

Billions of years from now, it will be driven by Solar Input going up.

Thats what makes climate change so difficult to model/predict/understand.

Yes......my 753 was reduced by 4 identified variables to 699. aka: Humor. But even "just" 20 is fantastically complex given that each variable interacts with the others.

You should appreciate that no single variable accounts for climate "on its own." But each variable can "drive" climate change should it be artificially (or even naturally) boosted over its normal values. For co2...that would be human activity. For albedo.... that could be volcanic eruptions. Another difference of note: volcanoes...don't erupt constantly....unlike human contribution.

Model all the variables as best we can ...........and Violet: CURRENTLY: AGW climate change is being driven by co2.

Just look.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Tue May 02, 2017 4:52 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:. Model all the variables as best we can ...........and Violet: CURRENTLY: AGW climate change is being driven by co2.


Let me re-write the truth: AGW climate change is being driven by co2 should read: AGW climate models are being driven by co2. [/

Climate models fail miserably to simulate holocene climate, warming of the Arctic in the 30s, or droughts in North America. Models simply overestimate sensitivity to CO2 and underestimate natural changes.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue May 02, 2017 6:17 pm

That is a nice chicken/egg issue. My understanding is that after decades of tentative study "the climate scientists" evaluated all the known significant variables and found the only one in "flux" was co2. How to phrase that to correctly catch what is going on is relevant. Its natural changes that were EXACTLY evaluated out of the equations that model climate.

No one knows what is overestimated or not, still lots of unknowns..... the IPCC reports simply being the best guess based on what we know and can measure and can model.

Models that can predict any given circumstance you wish would be criticized for being manipulated. Amusing what can be denied/manufactured to fit an argument. I understand Jesus could not swim, so he walked across the water.

JS==what climate model do you use to predict the holocene and future climate???????
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 03, 2017 1:28 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:JS==what climate model do you use to predict the holocene and future climate???????


Almost 24 hours and no response...giving me time to post an even better question: JS--what natural variable is driving the climate now? I fear to ask given you seem to go back and forth on whether or not there even is global warming. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Your current kick seems to be there IS global warming, but no "A" to be found? So...co2 is a green house gas but adding more of it to the atmosphere has no effect. You've gone back and forth on that issue too. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Often a quick retreat to ambiguity: co2 is a green house gas but its effects are much less than that used in the dire predictions?

So, what "predictions"/causality do you identify for the current warming trend we are in? And if no current warming trend....what is offsetting the effect of co2? The two positions are equally important and revealing........ or not.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Wed May 03, 2017 6:58 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Almost 24 hours and no response..


ROTFLMAO I have far more important things to do that respond to questions that have been discussed and then ignored many tmes or twisted into irrlevancy.When I have nothing better to do, I'll consider replying to you.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 03, 2017 9:08 pm

JS: that wasn't the point at all. You've cherry picked the Prelude, not the play itself.

Keep your eye on the ball/model/contradicting data.

...........but you do raise a good point.................having nothing better to do. Multitask.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:34 am

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby OutOfBreath » Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:06 am

My, how uninformative a chart you have there. Not even a link?
What is measured, how and where?

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:18 pm

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby OutOfBreath » Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:25 pm

Ah. Meaningless anecdotes as usual. As you were.

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:31 pm

The thread shows an abundance of records from across the globe showing a 1930s and 40s warm blips. Warming that cant be attributed to CO2 and supports the natural variation theories of climate change. Dismissing this wealth of evidence as "anecdotes" is silly and unscientific, Sticking one's head in the sand will not make the evidence go away. I suggest a more valid approach would be to show un-adjusted observational data that proves the world wide warm peaks of the 30s and 40s never existed.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jun 30, 2017 9:00 pm

Yep..............No Link.

JS does this all the time...................... and we all know why.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:13 pm

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:37 am

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:10 am

POST A FRICKIN LINK. Too much of what you post and even your commentary on it comes from sources that speak more against the point you want to make than the chart alone would suggest. IOW: you cherry pick and mischaracterize by using "facts" in isolation.

NOBODY SHOULD RESPOND TO YOU: until you post your links.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Jul 01, 2017 2:27 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:POST A FRICKIN LINK.


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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:01 am

NOBODY SHOULD RESPOND TO YOU: until you post your links.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:15 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:NOBODY SHOULD RESPOND TO YOU: until you post your links.


You keep promising that
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Jul 01, 2017 5:59 pm

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:13 am

"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"

-- Oscar Wilde

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Gord » Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:00 am

robinson wrote:http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~kostya/Sclim/Reports/lecture_April_19_2012.pdf

"ANALISIS OF OBSERVED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE".

:falloff:

Omigord, lookout, here comes the anal ISIS!

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:01 pm

Wow...........that is one overwhelming collection of charts. I found this puzzling as well:

URBANIZATION MAKES LOCAL CLIMATE BETTER

Until I looked further and found the missing header: "Cities in Desert:" Now, it makes sense....."climate" notwithstanding.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sun Aug 27, 2017 4:44 pm

Forgetting Hurricane Harvey is a natural weather event, alarmist ignore the 30s and 40s warm blip with increased hurricane activity in Texas, as alarmists try to hijack human suffering to push CO2 nonsense. According to the data a more realistic argument would be rising CO2 (if it has any significant effect) has diminished hurricane activity in Texas.

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:42 pm

"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"

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