Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:46 pm

Mr. Steele, you've posted that email excerpt repeatedly. I think we all get the point by now.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:15 pm

Pyrrho wrote:Mr. Steele, you've posted that email excerpt repeatedly. I think we all get the point by now.


Indeed I have posted that quote repeatedly. I am still hoping someone might explain what those scientists intended to do other than delete climate data. I cant see any other interpretation. Explain why we should trust them when we can observe temperature trends have been altered over the past 4 decades? I have yet to hear anyone denounce their intent, or the fact that indeed data "homogenization" resulted in trend changes that deleted the blips suggesting they followed through on their discussion and got rid of data that challenged their CO2 theory.

People often confuse "proper adjustments" due to instrument change or station relocation which differs greatly with homogenization that adjusts data even though there were no known instrument or location changes. Those scientists were not saying, 'Hey I found some errors that are biasing the data'. They were simply saying we need to get rid of most of the blips and in such a way that makes land and ocean temperature changes look consistent and defensible, but we still dont know how to explain the remaining warm blips.

Instead all I have witnessed here and by warmunistas in the blogosphere is fearful speculation that Trump will delete data. Cries and fears due to speculation versus acceptance of observed deletions in the past decades seems a tad schizophenic, and I cant understand why people willingly ignore past reality while embracing future speculation.

Until I hear others admit that such intentions and actions were wrong and anti-science, or until defenders offer an alternative explanation as to what they were trying to do, I am not so sure anyone here gets the point.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:23 pm

I got it, in 2009, when I first read the email.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:25 pm

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:04 pm

robinson wrote:I got it, in 2009, when I first read the email.


I wasn't including you in my comment. I was sure you understood the significance.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:17 pm

Actually, at the time I didn't know that much about any of it, and was surprised greatly by what I was reading. Why would anyone be secretive about the temperature/climate data?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:26 pm

The temperature increase in the contiguous U.S. was not monotonic in the last 5 decades, however: the temperature decreased from the late 1940s to the middle 1970s and then increased strongly since the 1970s [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001].

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 08397/full
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby OutOfBreath » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:31 pm

As we all know, the contigous us = the world...

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:17 am

OutOfBreath wrote:As we all know, the contigous us = the world...


Dan such a comment is just snarky dismissal that does nothing to promote critical examination of the regional contributions to the global average. Examination of US data should evoke many questions applicable to evaluating global change.

First Mann's hockeystick, as they admitted, only applied to the northern hemisphere because they lacked sufficient data from the southern hemisphere. Likewise there was a lack of northern hemisphere data from most of Asia and northern Africa and South America. Thus we have little "global" data prior to 1970. Thus recent illustrations of a global temperature trend since 1900 is based on imaginary data, where USA data is more definitive.

Second the USA has the densest and best climate data coverage. As I again post below, the graph from peer reviewed science shows a cyclical change in USA temperatures that is based on the best data set. There is clearly a warming since the Little Ice Age but it shows a cyclical pattern that does not correlate with CO2. There is a strong cooling pattern from the 1940s to the 70s. Good scientists would ask why did the USA behave in such a way? And did such climate dynamics happen in other regions? Such questions lead us to a greater understanding of climate change that a snarky dismissal ignores.

We scientists would also ask how much of the USA pattern affects the global average? Are there places that exhibit extreme warming that offset the USA pattern? Indeed the Arctic would be one of those places where very different climate dynamics show warming has been driven by stored heat ventilating from the Arctic Ocean's 100 to 900 layers of stored Atlantic heat. Nonetheless the Arctic air temps also exhibited a strong cooling trend from the 40s to 70s.

Recognizing these undeniable observed temperature patterns a good scientist would ask how much of the global temperature is a chimera of regional trends? They would then realize we must ask how much of those varied regional trends are due to rising CO2?

As i have posted several times, the oscillating pattern exhibited in the non-homogenized USA data is seen around the world in tree rings, Greenland instrumental data, and ice cores from the Antarctic peninsula,etc. The pattern does not correlate with CO2.

Image
Last edited by Jim Steele on Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:24 am

Here are temperature data, raw above and homogenized below, from Capetown South Africa with a trend that looks nearly identical to the USA

Image

Below is how the temperature trend looks after data homogenization alters observation into what climate scientists "think" temperatures should be. All around the world there is a 1940s warm blip, and just as top scientists conspired, that warm blip has been eliminated.

So what is the real change in global temperatures?????

Image
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:50 pm

The global temperature trend is not based on measured data as most of the Southern Hemisphere temperatures were not measured but speculations based on what they thought temps should be. Not believing in the northern hemisphere warm blips of the 30s and 40s, their made up data for the Southern Hemisphere simply assumed the SH never experienced similar warmth. Climate scientists admit making up data.

date: Wed Apr 15 14:29:03 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> subject: Re: Fwd: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
to: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>

Tom,

The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue of many more drifters providing measurements over the last 5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where we didn’t have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is very little ship data there.

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:15 am

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Paul Anthony » Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:26 pm

People who say ALWAYS and NEVER are usually wrong, part of the time.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:03 pm

robinson wrote:https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/no-global-warming-for-25-years-2/

FTL: "No Global Warming For 25 Years ///// How come sea level continues to rise?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:59 pm

Pyrrho wrote:Let's just hope the US government doesn't delete climate data. I downloaded the EPA 2015 report this morning but there is only so much time I have and there is so much information.

I know off-site archives. The information was grabbed on Nov. 9th. 8-)
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Paul Anthony » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:30 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
robinson wrote:https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/no-global-warming-for-25-years-2/

FTL: "No Global Warming For 25 Years ///// How come sea level continues to rise?


Maybe because we dump so much trash into the oceans? ;)
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:58 pm

That has to be offset by the number of swimming pools?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Paul Anthony » Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:20 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:That has to be offset by the number of swimming pools?


People only need swimming pools because we've polluted the lakes and streams.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:04 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:FTL: "No Global Warming For 25 Years ///// How come sea level continues to rise?


You have been shown why many times. As you have been advised, start a thread to discuss causes of sea level change so this issue can be thoroughly vetted. State your reasoning that sea level change is only evidence of CO2 warming. To not do such, suggests your repetitive sniping about sea level is not a genuine scientific concern.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:15 am

JS: Robinson takes the argument to there is NO WARMING. You have not answered why the sea level keeps going up for at least a year now....if you ever did at all. My memory is pretty good....and I can't recall your answer. Probably too sophisticated and over my head. Can you please dumb it down and refresh your position for us all?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:21 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Pyrrho wrote:Let's just hope the US government doesn't delete climate data. I downloaded the EPA 2015 report this morning but there is only so much time I have and there is so much information.

I know off-site archives. The information was grabbed on Nov. 9th. 8-)


I archived Death Valley temperature data in 2012.Notice the trend in maximum temperatures illustrated by the dark black line as shown in the following graph, and a 30s peak temperature of 95F

Image

Subsequently the Obama administration adjusted this data to eliminate the 30s warm blip in maximum temperatures to present the public with this newly created graph

Image


I suggest the warmunistas concern about data deletion is many years too late
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby OutOfBreath » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:14 am

JIm Steele wrote:I archived Death Valley temperature data in 2012.Notice the trend in maximum temperatures illustrated by the dark black line as shown in the following graph, and a 30s peak temperature of 95F

Image

Well I have to comment. (That graph was slightly confusing until i noticed different scales left and right. Imo having the "low" line above the "high" line is counterintuitive.) In your graph here maximums doesnt rise, true. They are flat towards the 90s. However minimums are definitely going up. So a fair assessment would be that similar highs plus warmer lows equals higher overall temps.

(Edit) And besides simple high/low comparisons really say nothing about climate. Took me a bit too long to catch that, but I leave the above commentary nonetheless.

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:53 pm

OutOfBreath wrote:In your graph here maximums doesnt rise, true. They are flat towards the 90s. However minimums are definitely going up. So a fair assessment would be that similar highs plus warmer lows equals higher overall temps.


Sorry for any confusion, the graph is meant to illustrate different trends. Using 2 different y axes is common practice in the scientific literature. Because air temperatures are driven by conduction with the earth surfaces, temperatures, especially minimums are greatly affected by land surface changes.

If we are trying to understand to what degree CO2 is causing an accumulation of heat, then the appropriate measure is maximums. For heat to accumulate maximum must rise. A rise in minimum can be solely due to increases in heat retaining surfaces and lost vegetation. Maximum temperatures are modulated by how much convection can return heat to the stratospere, and represents a well mixed atmosphere. Without convection that is typically lacking around dawn, the minimum is more representative of surface temperatures that can be unduly affected by pavement and concrete heat retention.

And you hit on an important point. Although maximum temperatures show NO accumulation of heat, using an average temperature that show a rising temperature due to minimum temperatures obfuscates the real climate dynamics and the fact that there is no heat accumulation.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:59 pm

Watching YOUTube TV...it provided the Senate Testimony of Dr Don Easterbrook that makes a very convincing presentation that EVERYTHING the AGW crowd (The IPCC, me, and etc) is pushing is: ...... wrong. Very convincing. Some good arguments and facts.

"The Other Side".... so much more confounding on the issue of AGW.... as opposed to 911 conspiracies and the like.

Testimony was two years ago. Youtube playing on my smart tv so don't have a link. Its prettty good though...depending on your end goal.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:02 pm

Should I give out lit matches?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofXQdl1FDGk
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Pyrrho » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:01 pm

OutOfBreath wrote:
JIm Steele wrote:I archived Death Valley temperature data in 2012.Notice the trend in maximum temperatures illustrated by the dark black line as shown in the following graph, and a 30s peak temperature of 95F

Image

Well I have to comment. (That graph was slightly confusing until i noticed different scales left and right. Imo having the "low" line above the "high" line is counterintuitive.) In your graph here maximums doesnt rise, true. They are flat towards the 90s. However minimums are definitely going up. So a fair assessment would be that similar highs plus warmer lows equals higher overall temps.

(Edit) And besides simple high/low comparisons really say nothing about climate. Took me a bit too long to catch that, but I leave the above commentary nonetheless.

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The graph as such confuses the data. The two graphs should be presented separately.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:11 pm

I googled Dr Easterbrook and "sea level rise" to find good arguments as to why that reference is faulty. JS is correct to say that it doesn't prove the "cause" of the rise....other than earth getting warmer? But it was an exercise in ..... confusion. The discussions were not on point but rather were about a seeming agreement that the sea level is going up but not at the ACCELERATED rates the models predicted...also about what the "signals" for climate change would be rather than just absolute data ... like sea level rise. I stopped after feeling I was being abused.

Years ago, this is why I liked CC as an issue. I have "no sense" about world wide climate...so it was a good issue to research. I am a consensus person and will cling to that until the consensus starts to break down. Surfing the youtube...I saw other testimony from other very credible qualified experts denying AGW. One senator asked if he believed in evolution.....................and the guy said: "There is more evidence for Creation given the odds of everything happening by chance alone." ................... AHEM: I would end the hearing and bar him from public.......if I had such power.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:30 pm

Pyrrho wrote:The graph as such confuses the data. The two graphs should be presented separately.


You are entitled to suggest your preference for 2 separate graphs, but there is no "should be". The purpose of the minimum maximum graph was to illustrate there diverging trends. As I said using 2 y axes is a common practice in scientific graphs. Below is just one example from a government health paper

https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/15-09692/

Image
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:56 am

More USHCN data showing how the 1930s & 40s warm blip was removed just as climate scientists conspired

Image
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:22 pm

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:58 pm

Whats the point of your link?...............as in a one phrase hint?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:49 pm

robinson wrote:https://realclimatescience.com/2017/02/100-predictable-fraud-from-government-climate-scientists/


Great link Robinson. Another example of how the scientific literature and news media are littered with examples of a 30s and 40s warm peak that warmunistas deleted from the real data. Its almost like 1984 doublespeak. Warmunistas deleted the warm blips, just as the said they would, but now they accuse Trump of deleting data even though he has done no such thing. Warmunistas present alternate facts in an alternate reality.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:04 am

It does seem that way sometimes.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby robinson » Mon Feb 20, 2017 1:19 pm

The damn blip just shows up everywhere.

Image

Why would they want to get rid of it?
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:19 pm

Indeed the warm blip does. Why would IPCC scientists get rid of it. And why would alarmists accept such skullduggery. To help get the truth out there the global glut of examples must be presented.

Compare Corpus Christi USHCN raw minimum temperature shows the warm 1930s blip just like the data all around the world

Image

And then after alteration

Image
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:51 pm

JIm Steele wrote:Indeed the warm blip does. Why would IPCC scientists get rid of it.


You've read enough on topic to know why. To raise the issue outside of that context is...............silly.

More pictures please.
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:41 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:You've read enough on topic to know why. To raise the issue outside of that context is...............silly.


Indeed IPCC climate scientists sought to make the data match their theory and keep the funding flowing.

Lets go to Kalispell MT by Glacier National Park as discussed in the article Vanishing Ice is likely All Natural https://goo.gl/5nwKI2

80% of the Sperry Glacier in Glacier National Park retreated between the mid 1800s and the 1930s warm blip and scientists predict the glaciers would disappear

Image

as one would predict, that period would have experienced a "warm blip" as indeed the raw data shows

Image

But after IPCC scientists altered the data nothing makes sense The warm blip is gone and instead the greatest amount of glacier melting happened during the coldest times. Such politicized science obscures natural climate changes

Image
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:53 pm

JS: Is co2 at the highest level in human history an artifact of natural cycles.......... or the burning of fossil fuels for the last 100 years?
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Jim Steele
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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby Jim Steele » Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:33 pm

[quote="bobbo_the_Pragmatist"]JS: Is co2 at the highest level in human history an artifact of natural cycles.......... /quote]

ROTFLMAO. The real data suggests CO2 has little impact despite its highest levels. To distort the topic saying CO2 is an artifact of natural cycles shows just how upside down your thinking is. Your gloom and doom obsession got your head screwed around.

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Re: Getting Rid of the 30s and 40s Warm Blips

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:30 am

JIm Steele wrote: The real data suggests CO2 has little impact despite its highest levels.

"The real data? /// Come again? While you say, but never have, addressed why sea level keeps rising, I do recall you saying that "Co2 is a greenhouse gas but its sensitivity is so low as to be meaningless." I asked you how sensitive it was and you mostly demurred but worked yourself into a corner that admitted it could raise sea level by 6 feet or more in 200 years give or take?..... Best my memory can do for made up positions.

Is that still your position JS......and based on what data????

Absent co2 warming RIGHT NOW....would Earth be entering a cold spell or not??

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Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?


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