1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:44 pm

I suppose I should let that go for the humor of it, but........YOU are the only one saying that.

Again: you can't juggle more than one idea at a time, or is it your memory?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:15 am

The big thing I am arguing about, Bobbo, is your ridiculous idea that global warming will render humanity extinct.

If you think that is a red herring, look at the title of the thread, which YOU wrote.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Aug 25, 2018 1:32 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:The big thing I am arguing about, Bobbo, is your ridiculous idea that global warming will render humanity extinct.
I've never posted that except as the very worst case scenario....and actually not expected. Whereas I do post all the time the real and growing risk to hooman CULTURE/SOCIETY. Two different things you cant juggle.
Lance Kennedy wrote: If you think that is a red herring, look at the title of the thread, which YOU wrote.
Yep....boy can't juggle. give him a stick of gum, can't go to the store for milk either. aka: been contextualized about five times, but you can't set it down. Really rigid non-thinking.

You should do better.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:01 am

OK, fine.

You have accepted that global warming is not a threat to human existence. Progress made.

Actually, Bobbo, I am surprised you seem to have missed a trick. The first extinction due to climate change is now confirmed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/worl ... odent.html

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:15 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:OK, fine.
That would be really funny...........if.............you had a sense of humor. No...its not fine.
Lance Kennedy wrote: You have accepted that global warming is not a threat to human existence.
I have REPEATEDLY SAID JUST THE OPPOSITE. (((((The distinction is that between a certainty vs a threat. Totally rigid/turgid/stuck you are....................)))))

Lance Kennedy wrote: Actually, Bobbo, I am surprised you seem to have missed a trick. The first extinction due to climate change is now confirmed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/worl ... odent.html
At least one long thread on that about two years ago with Jim Steele. Several references to it through out that year. As you say: a well known case. Why should I have included it here?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Aug 25, 2018 3:29 am

I would be surprised if it was discussed two years ago since it has just happened recently.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:22 am

Quoting from "The Princess Bride": "Prepare to be surprised...……"

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/worl ... odent.html ///// I won't check further.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:53 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Quoting from "The Princess Bride": "Prepare to be surprised...……"

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/worl ... odent.html ///// I won't check further.

linky not worky.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Austin Harper » Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:59 pm

Dum ratio nos ducet, valebimus et multa bene geremus.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Aug 25, 2018 11:04 pm

Sorry EM.....my copy/paste was a fail. I didn't check it because all the info needed was the posting date of 2016. Two years ago.....as my memory had placed it. I assume Lance is just caught up in all things current, a timeline requiring balance to construct.

thanks Austin, and the link provided by Lance also works.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:16 am

My latest New Scientist has an interesting opinion piece. (New Scientist, 18 August 2018, page 23

Title : "We can survive even extreme warming. "

First paragraph.
"People tend to have one of two broad reactions to bad news on the climate : hopeless despair or unjustified optimism. Neither reaction is right. "

Final paragraph.
"Bad times are not the same as end times. More warming is inevitable. The end of civilisation is not. "

The rest of the item basically supplies detail, but the message is simple. Global warming is real and the world will slowly warm up, and sea levels will rise. But humanity will mitigate the warming and adapt to it. There is no end to civilisation or humanity.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:27 am

In "The Wizard and the Prophet" (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/book ... 307961693/), Charles Mann juxtaposes two people who greatly influenced the world with completely different worldviews:
The Prophet warns of impending doom if we don't change our ways, the Wizard believes that technology will solve all problems.


Of course we need both types of personalities: without the fear-mongering of the the Prophets, we would have a harder time raising funds to support the work of the Wizards.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Austin Harper » Sun Aug 26, 2018 2:47 pm

NPR ran this interesting story this morning:
NPR wrote:
More Americans die from the effects of heat than of any other form of severe weather, and this summer has seen one heat wave after another. Some places in the U.S. and elsewhere have recorded their highest temperatures ever. In fact, the average temperature around the planet over the past four years has been the highest ever recorded, and nine of the 10 hottest years were all in this century. (The other was 1998.)

All of this would suggest that more people must be experiencing heat-related illness or death. But it's more complicated than that.

(read more)
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:52 pm

Heat deaths happen when people are not prepared. There are numerous high and low tech methods of avoiding it. What is needed is a method of keeping body core temperatures within limits. An old persons home, for example, needs air conditioning.

However, younger people can cool off in numerous ways, from cold showers to swimming. A low tech method is to sit in swimming costume next to bucket of cold water with a sponge in it. Apply as needed.

If temperatures are consistently hot, the human body adapts.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:39 pm

What is a swimming costume? I've never heard of this before. Its not in any dictionary.

Hmmmmm, you know what THAT means...…………………………...
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:22 am

A swimming costume is what you wear when swimming. I used that term because every nation has different jargon terms. Not sure that "budgie smuggler " would mean much to Americans.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:48 am

I'm just pulling your...…...budgie. Everyone knows what a banana hammock is.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:50 pm

Adapting to heat: I don't think human bodies "adapt" to heat. Having air conditioners is a rich persons solution and ironically increases co2 pollution. Planting trees would work, but mostly we aren't doing that. Staying indoors is great if your livelihood is not outside, staying hydrated is great as well if you have access to clean water.

I was also reminded that some of the deaths from cold could well be the result of AGW as well as when the polar vortex goes wobbly, no doubt some other less publicized effects as well?

But another issue is the notion of AGW being very slow giving us all time to adapt. There is the unknown tipping point of the temperature gradient being lessened that can have dramatic effects in several decades or even years? The Polar Vortex is a recent and continuing example...but the Atlantic Thermocline doing the same thing would throw Europe into another Ice Age.....don't know for how long as AGW would continue....more cold deaths the result of AGW.

It is hard to keep all the balls juggled. More balls than we know, and almost impossible to keep in the air when they knock into one another.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:34 pm

You need to pay less attention to the alarmist literature, Bobbo, and limit yourself to what respectable climate scientists say (excluding Hansen, who leans heavily into alarmism). The consensus is a steady warming for the rest of this century. After that, predictions are more difficult.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:36 am

Please state what I have been alarmist about. Hint: try to make sense of time frames referenced.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:57 am

1. Talking about tipping points resulting in very rapid warming.
2. The title of this thread.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:53 am

1. Talking about tipping points resulting in very rapid warming./// What did I post is not EXACTLY correct?
2. The title of this thread.///Like most "headlines"....meant to capture attention. You've been told this 5 times, but won't let go. You need to give issues you don't agree with a pass. The issue you are fixated on here is NOT AGW, but humor. You don't deal with the risks of the former, and have none of the latter.

The SCORE : Lance = 0, bobbo = 5
Last edited by bobbo_the_Pragmatist on Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:05 pm

I just answered your question, Bobbo. Sorry you do not like me answering questions.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by robinson » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:25 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:What did I post is not EXACTLY correct?
All of it
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:34 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:I just answered your question, Bobbo. Sorry you do not like me answering questions.
I would LOVE for you to answer the questions posed. Instead...………..you run away.

Down right Robinson in the lack of character/recognition. In YOUR case, I think its basically your language skills. Don't know which fork to use...…………...
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:41 pm

With NO RESPONSE......the round continues with the SCORE NOW: Lance = -2, bobbo = 7.35

1. Talking about tipping points resulting in very rapid warming./// What did I post is not EXACTLY correct?
2. The title of this thread.///Like most "headlines"....meant to capture attention. You've been told this 5 times, but won't let go. You need to give issues you don't agree with a pass. The issue you are fixated on here is NOT AGW, but humor. You don't deal with the risks of the former, and have none of the latter.

Learn the to tell the difference between a "what" question and a "why" question. Conflating the two just makes you look obstinate, dull witted, and unwilling to learn.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:45 am

Bobbo

You asked me to state what you had been alarmist about. I answered with two of your alarmist statements. Do not quibble.

Anyway, there is no serious prediction from competent scientists to the effect that humanity will go extinct or even of a threat to civilisation. Global warming is real and will be a right pain in the arse. Seriously damaging and inconvenient, but nothing that cannot be adapted to. As I said before, my personal prediction is that civilisation will continue to progress, creating a better life for most people. This even applies to the nation's currently suffering from poverty.

Even in Africa, 37 out of 54 nations have GDP growth of 3% per year or more. Only 3 nations are actually going backwards. Average economic growth about 4%, which means their income doubles every 20 years. Give them 100 years, and they will be earning 32 times what they earn today in real terms. As technology grows, so does human welfare. Global warming is a problem, but not nearly enough of a problem to stop this tidal wave of growth.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:32 am

I don't mind at all when we disagree. I might be "wrong"....but you have moderated my opinion on Nuke Energy, nothwithstanding a very real disagreement in understanding what threat/risk even means. You keep looking to the past data whereas risk and threat are about future events. Attitudes and values: not data.

But....what makes my ceral soggy is when you fail to deal with disagreements by running away.

I'll do my best not to respond to you on AGW until you describe WHY WHAT I posted is alarmist. Until YOU recognize your own errors, talking to you is talking to the wall.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:59 am

Re threats.

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
But the best basis for predictions is trends. The threat of nuclear power is best assessed by looking at what nuclear power has done over its roughly 60 years of existence. Little threat shown.

Lots of people try to use other means of predicting the future, including future threats. I could describe assorted books that tried to do that. What they all have in common is falling flat on their face. But extending past trends into the future usually works. That is what I do.