All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years .......

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All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years .......

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 17, 2017 3:25 am

Have I lost track of how fast technology can be? don't think "the grid" can handle the power demand for all electric in 8 years...meaning a good percentage of the oil burned in cars would be burned in the power plants? A net boost in efficiency but not a collapse in that industry? but maybe. The change in transportation should be linear rather than logarithmic. Still a fun read .... very short. ... e-industry
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Re: All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years .......

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed May 17, 2017 6:59 am

Not quite what the article says....

no more oil-powered cars will be sold in 8 years. But they won't vanish quickly.

I can see this in principle (though I would go with 10-15 years), because once Electric becomes the new norm, the re-sale value of gasoline cars will drop so much that typical first customers of new cars (for example, fleets for rental car companies, etc.) will no longer buy them.
But that in turn will mean that car owners will cling to their smoking cars for as long as possible unless there is an attractive government "cash-for-clunkers" program for accelerate the transition.
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Re: All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years .......

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed May 17, 2017 6:26 pm

There are still one or two companies in the US making buggy whips. Old techs well supported by infrastructure don't die suddenly.
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Re: All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years .......

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed May 17, 2017 6:36 pm

My neighbor has a 1927 Plymouth pickup truck in pristine state. That won't disappear in 8 years.
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Re: All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years .......

Postby Nobrot » Thu May 18, 2017 1:21 am

The entire electrical infrastructure will need to dug up and replaced with heavier cabling. Digging up Tokyo will cost how much? Billions or trillions? And where is the generating capacity coming from? All this in eight years? It's not going to happen.

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