G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

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Matthew Ellard
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G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:59 am

Trump is actually somewhat predictable. He needs to secure his existing US voting base for the midterms and has chosen to do this, as a populist domestic exercise by entering into a trade war with USA allies in G7. This was somewhat predictable.

Prior to this, China had private diplomatic words with Kim Jong Un of North Korea. This has resulted in US foreign affairs and media being distracted by a "one off" peace treaty meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un, when in fact both countries are already at peace, due to the 1953 North Korea and United Nations armistice. In reality, the North Korean nuclear test mountain, blown up for journalists last week had already collapsed in September 2017. North Korea probably has 30-50 old style atom bombs and will not produce upgrades for some years until its new test facility is built.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/1 ... -200-dead/

Yet everyone seemed to miss that the alternative trade block initiated by China and Russia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has recently added as new members, India and Pakistan, thus expanding to increase the membership and associates to China, Russia, Belarus, Iran, Pakistan, India, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Cambodia, Nepal and Turkey.

Of interest was Vladimir Putin in Austria last week stating that he would like to see the end of European sanctions against Russia and simultaneously saying Russia had little interest in rejoining G7 as Russia had an alternative method of establishing a trade block.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... g7-summit/

I suggest that the remaining G6 countries (No USA) will be looking for new trade agreements to maintain their GDPs when the USA economy starts a trade war with G6 (and thus G20). I suggest China and Russia have been maneuvering to prepare to offer these G6 countries free trade agreements through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

I suggest we will soon see the Russian "flip" in Europe where Putin says "we will stop interfering in foreign elections and becomes "the nice guy". Russia and China will then further integrate with Europe ( and Canada?) and The USA will not be a partner. I also note that there is growing evidence that Russia channelled money to Nigel Farage's Brexit campaign in 2016 and this was also preparation, by removing the UK and its anti-Russian stance from any negotiations.

The USA will left with a trade agreement with......North Korea.
:D

These photos of G7 and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are from the same day.
SCO-Leaders-Summit-1280.jpg
G7.jpg
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Re: G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:05 am

Good surmise Matt. Perfect timing to take advantage of Trump Led USA GROSS mistakes. I'd maybe add up the GDP's or Trading Volumes of the various members to see what matters?

.........and I do constantly think of South America ..... a bit less often of Africa. Are they always going to come up short?
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Re: G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:12 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Good surmise Matt.
A good magician uses distraction to make everyone look in the wrong direction. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are wizards at this.

Australia's main trading partner is China, so as you can imagine......that's where we are looking. :D

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Re: G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:32 am

Russian influence to fund Brexit becomes a bit clearer.
Arron Banks, the millionaire businessman who bankrolled Nigel Farage’s campaign to quit the EU, had multiple meetings with Russian embassy officials in the run-up to the Brexit referendum, documents seen by the Observer suggest.

Banks, who gave £12m of services to the campaign, becoming the biggest donor in UK history, has repeatedly denied any involvement with Russian officials, or that Russian money played any part in the Brexit campaign. The Observer has seen documents which a senior Tory MP says, if correct, raise urgent and troubling questions about his relationship with the Russian government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... it-meeting

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Re: G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby TJrandom » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:50 am

That is a lot to accomplish in the 3 years Trump has left - plus of course the 10 to 20 years it will take for the US to fix his screwups. But eventually America will be great again and allies will understand that it was just a nutter in the White House.

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Re: G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:40 am

TJrandom wrote:That is a lot to accomplish in the 3 years Trump has left - plus of course the 10 to 20 years it will take for the US to fix his screwups.
I think the hard part will be for the next US government, Democrat or Republican, to reimpose sensible taxation percentages and appropriate tax brackets. If this trade war between the USA and the rest of the world, reduces USA GDP and thus gross tax revenue, the USA is going to have to borrow crippling amounts of foreign capital in a hostile world economic environment. That's what will take decades to resolve.

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Re: G7 to G6 / SCO adds India & Pakistan

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:36 am

I don't understand Trade. Its too complicated and varied and interactive, to allow for one single "philosophy" to be applied all the time in every circumstance. But it does seem to me you don't go after Canada with whom USA has a Trade Surplus because they are trying to protect their home dairy industry. Given our History, and the (unique?) Trade Surplus, seems to me that is the perfect situation to actually negotiate whatever changes are desired?

I don't understand Trade, but lets assume Canada imposes a tariff on Dairy that amounts to $500mm a year? Fine....identify what combo of USA Home industries (wheat?) or even Aluminum???? add up to the same $500mm and say that equal and opposite Tariff will be imposed. To be removed when Canada removes its Tariff. Seems.....downright "fair" if that is even relevant when it comes to how trade and tariffs work?.... which I don't know.

But I do Understand Trump. He's a criminal flim flam artist. Probably win at the Casino of Life by just assuming everything Trump does is wrong. Lose a roll here and there, but walk away a winner...unlike the USA. I assume Trump has committed CRIMES and Mueller has the proof already with more to come. I assume Trump will not be impeached as the Senate won't go that far as their base voters are brain washed Trumpies: "loving that Strong Man."

So, a bit of a fantasy, but it really could happen: Mueller presents the criminal case and DOJ makes a deal with Trump to let him step down mid-term, with a condition see spoiler, with a deal not to prosecute. Huge fines imposed basically putting the Trump Criminal Family out of action but roaming Mar Lago on his own. Melania back in Romania writing her memoirs.
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