History Repeats in Afghanistan

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Matthew Ellard
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Tom Palven is an idiot

Post by Matthew Ellard » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:24 am

Tom Palven wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:01 pm
My idiotic position is that the US should leave Afghanistan to the Afghans, Iran to the Iranians, and so on, as opposed to your idiotic shallow state Australian position.
1) The Afghanistan government invited NATO and Australia to assist them removing the Syrian ISIL terrorists and Taliban ( Madrassa student movement controlled by Pakistan ) from Afghanistan under "Resolute Support". Taliban previously hid Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan before Pakistan hid him back in Pakistan. You didn't know anything that basic history did you? :lol: :lol:

2) Iran should be left alone and thankfully the USA may soon be thrown out of NATO before your beloved Donald Trump is impeached.

3) Australia and New Zealand went to war with Indonesia to free East Timor from the Indonesian occupation of 1975 when Indonesia shot all our journalists. We did this through the United Nations so as to obtain international consensus. East Timor is now a free country. .

Why are you so ignorant and stupid?
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Tom Palven » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:22 am

If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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Tom Palven is an idiot 3

Post by Matthew Ellard » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:58 am

Tom Palven wrote: Suspension of Afghan elections?

The elections were not suspended despite your neo-nazi claim the Afghan government is a "Fourth Reich Vichy occupation government (against Taliban from Pakistan's madrasas.)
Tom Palven wrote:"I stand by "Vichy Fourth Reich puppet government of Afghanistan" as an accurate description,
http://www.skepticforum.com/viewtopic.p ... 40#p671600

Go back to posting on Stormfront White Action Power forum. :lol: :lol:

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Tom Palven » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:18 pm

Afghan army suffering potentially unsustainable casualties despite US training and air power:

https://news.antiwar.com/2018/11/13/gha ... our-years/
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by landrew » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:38 pm

Afghanistan has had an insurgent culture of resistance for centuries. They only get better at it over time.
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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:05 pm

landrew wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:38 pm
Afghanistan has had an insurgent culture of resistance for centuries. They only get better at it over time.
Indeed they do. Geez, the British learned this 130 years ago, and the Russians learned it 35 years ago. How long will it take the Americans to learn it?

And, as we know, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. In this case, the memory is being suppressed, it seems.
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Tom Palven » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:27 am

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:05 pm
landrew wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:38 pm
Afghanistan has had an insurgent culture of resistance for centuries. They only get better at it over time.
Indeed they do. Geez, the British learned this 130 years ago, and the Russians learned it 35 years ago. How long will it take the Americans to learn it?

And, as we know, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. In this case, the memory is being suppressed, it seems.

To us the conflicts that the US is involved in may look like mistakes, but the MIC might have a different viewpoint.

Who benefits? Follow the money, or cui bono?

"Cui bono, literally 'to whose profit?,' is a Latin phrase which is still in use as a key forensic question in legal and police investigation: finding out who has a motive for a crime. It is an adage that is used either to suggest a hidden motive or to indicate that the party responsible for something may not be who it appears at first to be."
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Matthew Ellard » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:48 am

It isn't NATO that the Afghan army is fighting. It is the Taliban Student movement controlled by Pakistan's ISI.

If any of you were paying attention Russia has taken over peace talks in Afghanistan as a method of moving out NATO from near Iran.


Afghanistan war: Taliban attend landmark peace talks in Russia


"Russia has hosted a landmark international meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow aimed at kick-starting peace talks after decades of war. It is the first time Taliban militants have attended such an event.

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Matthew Ellard » Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:12 am

Tom Palven refuses to read any history. The Afghanistan problem was fundamentally about heroin. The Soviets left Afghanistan for a lot of reasons, including large numbers of its conscripts coming back with heroin addiction. Pakistan liaised with the mujaheddin, supplied them US weapons and sold their heroin. The mujaheddin fought the Soviets. The USA was happy.

When the Soviets left, the Pakistani ISI ( Inter Services Intelligence) then needed a new market for heroin so they sold to the west. The Pakistani sent in their own controlled Taliban ( Student movement) to seize power, NATO then went through a program to get Afghanistan farmers to grow other crops, so the fight between Pakistan and the West started. This culminated with Pakistan supporting Osama Bin Laden, in Afghanistan , while simultaneously taking US arms.

Frankly, I'm sort of glad the Russians are back. Russia hates Pakistan. India hates Pakistan. India and Russia have a mutual interest in letting Afghanistan become a normal democratic country, as it is in their proximity. NATO has sort of lost the plot and is on the other side of the planet. If Russia, India and NATO all work together there will be little Pakistan or Taliban can do to stop elections.

(On a more pragmatic level, the Afghanistan Army uses old Russian equipment and Russia can now supply the spare parts again. That's why Taliban is desperate to stop all Afghanistan elections) )
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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:07 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:12 am
Tom Palven refuses to read any history. The Afghanistan problem was fundamentally about heroin. The Soviets left Afghanistan for a lot of reasons, including large numbers of its conscripts coming back with heroin addiction. Pakistan liaised with the mujaheddin, supplied them US weapons and sold their heroin. The mujaheddin fought the Soviets. The USA was happy.

When the Soviets left, the Pakistani ISI ( Inter Services Intelligence) then needed a new market for heroin so they sold to the west. The Pakistani sent in their own controlled Taliban ( Student movement) to seize power, NATO then went through a program to get Afghanistan farmers to grow other crops, so the fight between Pakistan and the West started. This culminated with Pakistan supporting Osama Bin Laden, in Afghanistan , while simultaneously taking US arms.

Frankly, I'm sort of glad the Russians are back. Russia hates Pakistan. India hates Pakistan. India and Russia have a mutual interest in letting Afghanistan become a normal democratic country, as it is in their proximity. NATO has sort of lost the plot and is on the other side of the planet. If Russia, India and NATO all work together there will be little Pakistan or Taliban can do to stop elections.

(On a more pragmatic level, the Afghanistan Army uses old Russian equipment and Russia can now supply the spare parts again. That's why Taliban is desperate to stop all Afghanistan elections) )

Taliban heroin distribution.jpg
Nice summary of the history. There's a documentary called "Charlie Wilson's War" about the chief instigator of the US backing of the Mujahedeen during the 1980s. Reagan was happy to get leverage to bring down the Evil Empire, even though it was imploding from its own corruption. So it was a very short-sighted policy, and of course, as soon as Communism was defeated, Islamism became the next bugaboo of American policy. It transcended national boundaries and therefore was much harder to fight. After nearly a generation of this struggle, we've got a population of young people who no longer remember having civil rights. In the US, the FBI and the DEA always could knock on your door and haul you away to secret detention centers, although they rarely did this to the middle class. But now, nobody dares risk offending Homeland Security. It is potentially as bad as the GPU/NKVD/KGB once was (and MGB probably still is). We can still demonstrate and write angry letters to the newspapers, and I suppose that is something positive. But don't imagine you have any rights if Homeland Security puts you under arrest. Our Congress thought we were such cowards that in the name of safety we'd willingly give up the rights we used to have vis-a-vis a government that wants to arrest us, so they cheerfully voted them away.
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Matthew Ellard » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:33 am

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:07 am
Nice summary of the history.


Russia has new tanks and AFVs for a professional army and the old spare parts for "old simple conscript AFVs" don't fit the new tanks. Russia has a surplus and monopoly on discount spare parts. The Afghanistan army uses old Russian equipment, has low training levels and has run out of spare parts. NATO cannot supply spare parts for old Russian tanks and AFVs.

Therefore Russia can work with NATO and India and finally get rid of the Pakistan ISI's Taliban. That's why Taliban sees the end coming. Taliban can no longer win militarily and can't win by a democratic vote. Therefore Taliban is going to tread water and reduce to a small fragmented terrorist group. However the senior taliban leaders are looking towards maximising their short term personal gain from heroin sales so they can retire in Pakistan

Afghanistan’s opium production is through the roof
From 2016 to 2017, the area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan increased by 63 percent, to 328,000 hectares (ha); the estimated total production of opium shot up by 87 percent to 9,000 metric tons (mt). That’s the most in Afghan history. Most of the expansion of took place in Helmand province, long the hub of Afghan opium production as well as Taliban insurgency. ......Most U.S. ("street") heroin comes from Mexico and Colombia, and lately also perhaps Guatemala..

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... overreact/

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:15 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:33 am
Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:07 am
Nice summary of the history.


Russia has new tanks and AFVs for a professional army and the old spare parts for "old simple conscript AFVs" don't fit the new tanks. Russia has a surplus and monopoly on discount spare parts. The Afghanistan army uses old Russian equipment, has low training levels and has run out of spare parts. NATO cannot supply spare parts for old Russian tanks and AFVs.

Therefore Russia can work with NATO and India and finally get rid of the Pakistan ISI's Taliban. That's why Taliban sees the end coming. Taliban can no longer win militarily and can't win by a democratic vote. Therefore Taliban is going to tread water and reduce to a small fragmented terrorist group. However the senior taliban leaders are looking towards maximising their short term personal gain from heroin sales so they can retire in Pakistan

Afghanistan’s opium production is through the roof
From 2016 to 2017, the area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan increased by 63 percent, to 328,000 hectares (ha); the estimated total production of opium shot up by 87 percent to 9,000 metric tons (mt). That’s the most in Afghan history. Most of the expansion of took place in Helmand province, long the hub of Afghan opium production as well as Taliban insurgency. ......Most U.S. ("street") heroin comes from Mexico and Colombia, and lately also perhaps Guatemala..

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... overreact/
Interesting. That's a persepective I didn't get from my haphazard following of the news media.

A guy I used to know suggested a simple problem to the opium crisis (and this would work in general). The government should simply buy the crop in exchange for an agreement (to be enforced by the US armed forces) to limit production to a reasonable amount. The government could then simply destroy it, or put it to benign use. I can see serious flaws in this policy, but it might be worth trying. We might cut the drug cartels out of the process, and perhaps actually lead to a decrease in use back home.
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Tom Palven » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:40 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:15 pm

A guy I used to know suggested a simple problem to the opium crisis (and this would work in general). The government should simply buy the crop in exchange for an agreement (to be enforced by the US armed forces) to limit production to a reasonable amount. The government could then simply destroy it, or put it to benign use. I can see serious flaws in this policy, but it might be worth trying. We might cut the drug cartels out of the process, and perhaps actually lead to a decrease in use back home.
I think that in the past the government has bought up and stored milk and other agricultural commodities in order to prop up the prices for dairy farmers and other farmers, but I suspect that there were unintended consequences that were less than positive.

How about decriminalizing all drugs and knocking the profits of them? Too damned radical?

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by landrew » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:00 pm

Tom Palven wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:40 pm
Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:15 pm

A guy I used to know suggested a simple problem to the opium crisis (and this would work in general). The government should simply buy the crop in exchange for an agreement (to be enforced by the US armed forces) to limit production to a reasonable amount. The government could then simply destroy it, or put it to benign use. I can see serious flaws in this policy, but it might be worth trying. We might cut the drug cartels out of the process, and perhaps actually lead to a decrease in use back home.
I think that in the past the government has bought up and stored milk and other agricultural commodities in order to prop up the prices for dairy farmers and other farmers, but I suspect that there were unintended consequences that were less than positive.
This is the practice of supply management.
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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Matthew Ellard » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:12 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote: The government should simply buy the ( heroin) crop in exchange for an agreement (to be enforced by the US armed forces) to limit production to a reasonable amount. The government could then simply destroy it, or put it to benign use.
The government did pay money to Afghanistan farmers to replace opium crops with other crops. Taliban, when in total control of Afghanistan made growing poppies "anti-Islamic" and destroyed crops. However when Taliban started losing and needed to buy weapons it increased heroin production which was distributed by Pakistan.

There are better models to look at. The "golden Triangle" in South East Asia was reduced by targeting the production of heroin rather than the crops themselves. It is easier to destroy a factory than crops and farmers would change crops as a result.

I also think that the destruction of Taliban and ISIL in Afghanistan will end their need to sell heroin to buy weapons. A quick end to the war would be a good thing.

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Gord » Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:28 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:12 pm
A quick end to the war--
In Afghanistan?? Isn't that asking for the implausible?
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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Matthew Ellard » Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:10 am

Matthew Ellard wrote: A quick end to the war--
Gord wrote:In Afghanistan?? Isn't that asking for the implausible?
Sure.....when nuclear war kills all humans and cockroaches rule the Earth!!!! Finally.....there will be peace in Afghanistan. :D

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Re: History Repeats in Afghanistan

Post by Gord » Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:54 am

Can't we just use a plague like in the movies? [/backseatwhine]
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
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