Exoplanet gets roasted.

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Lance Kennedy
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Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:09 am

Proxima Centauri is the closest other sun to us. It has a planet in orbit within the Goldilocks Zone, meaning it could have liquid water. But life is kinda unlikely. The red dwarf sun has just spurted out a solar flare so bright that the normally invisible star became visible through low power binoculars. Damaging radiation, mainly ultra violet, would have roasted the surface of that planet.

Other red dwarf suns are believed to be prone to the same phenomenon. Since red dwarf suns are by a large margin the most common stars in our galaxy (possibly up to three quarters of the estimated 100 billion stars), that makes life on other planets a lot less likely.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:44 am

Lance: any idea about how many unrelated characteristics are present to make LIFE ON EARTH possible as we know it? You have given TWO already:

1. Goldilocks Zone
2. Not a Red Dwarf

I'll give two more:
3. Magnetic Core
4. Molten Core
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:34 am

Bobbo

You missed the main one I was referring to. Stellar stability.

I could name a dozen more. Your point ?

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:40 am

"obviously".........to make a list, thereby giving your post any purpose at all?

Stellar stability is exactly what I meant by "not a red Dwarf" although your characteristic is more general....I was just sticking to what you posted.

Here are two more:

5. To rotate on a tilted Axis.
6. To have one or more Giant planets also in orbit.

You (with others who may volunteer to help) only have 10 more to go.
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:34 am

Plate tectonics.
Magnetic field.
Large moon.
Nearly circular orbit.
Right sized planet.
Situated in correct part of galaxy.
Suitable lithosphere chemistry.
Suitable atmospheric chemistry.
Suitable oceanic chemistry.
Not tidally locked to the sun.

That is ten. There may be more. We do not know what conditions are needed for pushing evolution, and we do not know what conditions are needed for promoting abiogenesis.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:53 pm

Plate tectonics.==I said molten core
Magnetic field.==I said magnetic core

So...you have two more to backfill.

Right sized? Can we legitimately have all the other elements identified correctly and have the size be an issue? My first time thinking about it....isn't the size of object orbiting around the sun somewhat of a physics reality? Too big and too close....and I assume you get pulled into the sun? At least in our solar system there is a near progression from small to larger as distance from the sun increases.

Correct part of galaxy....in order to gain or avoid what? .... and at what frequency?

Suitable this and that....shouldn't you be more specific? "Suitable" doesn't tell you anything...just like correct. Your whole list could just be: "Everything must be correct." For oceanic chemistry...whats wrong with just saying must have water.....and then I'm thinking must have enough water to form rivers and lakes if not oceans...or perhaps just "rain" or have a hydraulic cycle? Lots of ways to phrase the issue, which one is the best? Liquid water is of course what is meant by the Goldilocks zone...
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:26 pm

Right size means acceptable gravity for life.

Two more ?
1. Right mix of debris in the stellar system to permit water to arrive, but not so much that "dinosaur killer " impacts are common.

2. Correct type of sun so that radiation is not too intense. For example, a blue giant would put out too much ultra violet.

There is no shortage of possible requirements. We simply do not know at this stage what is essential. It may be a lot more than 12 factors.

But for interest sake, let me speculate.
Imagine there are 12 factors that must be right for life to appear and evolve into an advanced form, like here on Earth. Imagine further than the designated planet in any stellar system has 1 chance in 10 for each of those factors. Imagine further that we are looking at galaxies with the same number of stars as our Milky Way. How many galaxies would have a planet with advanced life ?

That is right. Only one galaxy in 100.

Of course, we do not know the requisite numbers, so this is wild speculation. But it makes the point that advanced life may not be a common as science fiction writers predict.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:28 pm

one hundred billion galaxies
According to the best estimates of astronomers there are at least one hundred billion galaxies in the observable universe. They've counted the galaxies in a particular region, and multiplied this up to estimate the number for the whole universe.
How do we know how many galaxies are in our universe? | physics.org
www.physics.org/facts/sand-galaxies.asp
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:29 pm

Oh, just to answer the query on correct part of the galaxy. Two points.
1. Too far out and metallicity is low. That is, not enough heavier elements.
2. Too close in and high levels of radiation. Plus other disasters.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:31 pm

On 100 billion galaxies.
Sure, and it appears probable that on some of those galaxies there will be a planet with advanced life. But with the speed of light limitation, it seems unlikely in the extreme that humans will ever contact any intelligence from another galaxy.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Apr 28, 2018 11:46 pm

Image

Your OP was all about n-sub e yet now you counter with L. Your own stream of consciousness?
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Apr 29, 2018 2:57 am

The Drake equation does not help, Bobbo, since it is filled with numbers plucked from the air. It is just a way of describing ignorance in more impressive mathematical form.

My own equation is :

N =P1.P2.P3........Pn. Sn

Where N is number of star systems with advanced life.
P1 through to Pn are the individual probabilities per star system of each essential factor
Sn is the total number of star systems we are looking at, whether in just the Milky Way, or else the wider universe.

My equation is probably more realistic than the Drake equation, but is still dependent on numbers that we just do not know.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:07 am

All you've done is join the equation later in its development, aka: you skip 99% of the problem. and note: the equation doesn't have numbers. You have to plug them in....same as with EVERY equation. I'll stop short of asking you what the function of any equation is.
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:44 am

Exactly what I said, Bobbo. We simply do not know enough.

That is my point. People take nonsense like the Drake Equation, and plug in numbers pulled from the air, and claim to have made an argument. It is all bull dust. The number of planets in our galaxy with advanced life could be millions, or could be just the one. Anyone who claims to have an intuition of what is correct is a moron.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Apr 29, 2018 3:58 am

Lance: you ENTIRELY MISS THE POINT.

The equation is "useful" only to the degree it identifies the relevant variables: which is why your formula is a total failure.

What numbers you plug in is an entirely different issue.

I assume as always, you don't understand what I'm saying.

...................ain't Life a Bitch?
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Apr 29, 2018 5:39 am

Bobbo

I have been skeptical of the Drake Equation for some time. The variables in it are too vague to be useful. Certainly my equation is not much better. But that reflects the state of ignorance. A lot more research is needed, and that will not be complete in our lifetime.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:04 am

Specifically, what is vague in the Drake formula?
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:26 pm

The numbers you put in.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:59 am

Ha, ha...........I already said it.
► Show Spoiler
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:21 am

Bobbo

Both equations are useless. Mine has the advantage of being obviously useless, whereas the Drake Equation looks OK, enough to fool even someone as astute as Carl Sagan. He and Drake actually put numbers into it and came up with one million as the number of advanced civilisations in our galaxy. They did not realise that they were engaged in a fools program.

One thing any skeptic should realise is that everyone makes mistakes, even Carl Sagan and Albert Einstein. A competent skeptic will not be sucked in by mistakes performed by a big name.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:24 am

What is the mistake in the Drake Equation? Should such mistakes be corrected or the entire notion of any such equation helping to explain the subject just be thrown out the window?
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:49 am

Throw it out the window.

Science is based on empiricism. In other words, real world experiments and observations. We need new methods of actually looking at exoplanets to see what really is there, rather than engaging in mental masturbation on the subject.

There are already proposals for space telescopes with mirrors of one kilometer or more diameter. Such instruments are technically possible, and could in theory reveal detailed spectroscopic data of what makes up exoplanets atmospheres. Certainly such an instrument could pick up data on potential civilisations out to 1000 light years or more.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:14 am

Lance: you simply don't understand "the function" of *** formula.

Your thinking process would benefit from actually answering the questions you avoid. aka: you focus on the irrelevant.

WHATS WRONG WITH THE DRAKE EQUATION? ((Need I tell you for the 4th time?))==>It is rather amusing to find on what track you will choose to fixate. Never a flow.........
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:00 am

The Drake Equation is designed to fail, because it is impossible to get the accurate data for its variables. Using it relies on guesswork. That is what is wrong with it.

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:15 am

lANCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!................I really don't know why we 99.99% of the time get crosswise with one another...but this example should be fairly pristine?

IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE DRAKE EQUATION, as written: then identify its errors and make corrections. I doubt you can do either. Stop being a dumbass.
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:39 am

I have answered your question. If an equation cannot be used, it is useless. The Drake Equation cannot be used because we cannot determine the numbers to put into it. Can I be clearer ?

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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:45 am

Silly.
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by Kelly Petersen » Fri May 11, 2018 10:43 am

Even counting the number of systems, the question is whether life in the galaxy, which would be useful to us, is still unresolved.
You know, in these matters you can rely only on computer modeling of galaxies, in my work on the law of the universe and spatial refraction, there was a mention of Drake equation, and because of the difficulties that have arisen, I simply turned to the experts for help

Code: Select all

[url=https://www.assignmentexpert.com/math]https://www.assignmentexpert.com/math[/url] 
in solving this problem. Let's clear, in the first, it's impossible to omit the variable or degree in any way (this was mentioned above) and even this way, the calculation becomes large-scale and time-consuming. Secondly, yes, the equation is only a visual model in the first approximation, vain to wait some pointing out clear coordinates or something like that ...
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Re: Exoplanet gets roasted.

Post by landrew » Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:57 pm

I feel cornered on this question by absurdities from all sides. The universe is too vast to assume that life exists only here. But if it does, where is the evidence? Is it reasonable to assume that it's all too far away for us to know about? None of this is easy to dissipate with normal reasoning.
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