Above average ?

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Lance Kennedy
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Above average ?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:01 pm

There have been a number of surveys that show, clearly, that almost everyone who drives a car considers him or herself to be an above average driver. Obviously, this cannot be. Are they lying ? No. This is actually a form of confirmation bias, with people firmly believing their assessment.

The truth, I think, is that it is also a matter of semantics, like so much else in life. What, in terms of driving, do you consider makes someone above average. ?
The little old lady who drives slowly to town once a week thinks she is above average because she is very cautious.
The teenage nut case who drives at high speed and turns corners with a squeal of brakes and leaves rubber on the road will think he is above average because of reflexes and the skill, to drive at speed.
I think I am above average because I have not had an accident in the last 30 years.

Rather clearly, such a judgement cannot be made accurately until you have a clear definition of what makes 'above average ', and some objective way of testing it.

This is in microcosm a statement about normal human psychology. We all have these delusions about ourselves. What is yours ?

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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:28 pm

I'm calling "roshambo" on you Lance. Basic Etiquette calls for YOU to offer up your own example before asking others to do the same. Now "usually" when I make such a request, I also lead by giving my own example as generally I would do here.

............................but its roshambo time ((a South Park reference)). You respond.........then I will. Then others may. How deep into TMI should we go????
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Poodle » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:37 pm

I have heard it said that roughly half of all drivers are above average.

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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:39 pm

That shows above average math skills.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby JO 753 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:32 pm

I consider myself an above averaje driver kuz I can make passnjerz think they are going to die without actually crashing.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:54 pm

Most drivers think they are above average. In my case, I happen to believe it is true.

We all have delusions. I am 68 years old and still believe I am 20.

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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:15 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Most drivers think they are above average. In my case, I happen to believe it is true.

We all have delusions. I am 68 years old and still believe I am 20.

Is that it?

OK..................... I feel........................25.

....................rachambo................>>>
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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:17 am

btw: its easy to be above average. Take a defensive driving course...........and then follow its precepts.

I always look both ways at intersections even when I have the green light. Same with cars coming out of driveways and what not. I do try to balance this perfection with excessive speed..... but these days its just to go with the traffic flow..........a real world logical and safety response THAT doesn't work it court. I just consider speeding tickets an additional tax.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:46 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:Most drivers think they are above average. In my case, I happen to believe it is true.

We all have delusions. I am 68 years old and still believe I am 20.

Is that it?

OK..................... I feel........................25.

....................rachambo................>>>


As a good skeptic, my collection of delusions is a bit lean, I am afraid. I have cultivated the habit of rejecting ideas that do not meet good science criteria. Fortunately, this forum has various people who supply enough extra delusions.

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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:21 am

So........you are above average in having a high opinion of yourself?...........or how would you phrase the impact on your personality/perceptions of your cultivated habit?

JESBUS: I am way above average in the number of typos I make to form a post. Its actually getting irritating...........mostly muscle memory I think....as my new keyboard hasn't started to stick yet.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:42 am

Here is a status challenge!

I am way better than you in number of typos. You just see the end product, after I have been through it twice. Man, there is no one in this world capable of making more mistakes than me.

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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:33 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Here is a status challenge!

I am way better than you in number of typos. You just see the end product, after I have been through it twice. Man, there is no one in this world capable of making more mistakes than me.

Ha, ha. Good hook on the hubris though...........I almost took the challenge.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby scrmbldggs » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:03 pm

I know for certain I used to be what's commonly called an above average driver. And you'll just have to take my word for it. :-P
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Re: Above average ?

Postby TJrandom » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:01 am

scrmbldggs wrote:I know for certain I used to be what's commonly called an above average driver. And you'll just have to take my word for it. :-P


Par for the course?

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Re: Above average ?

Postby JO 753 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:11 am

I remember that time I parked by flipping the car into a barrel role and landing in the spot.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby scrmbldggs » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:20 am

On purpose? :lol:
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Re: Above average ?

Postby TJrandom » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:21 am

JO 753 wrote:I remember that time I parked by flipping the car into a barrel role and landing in the spot.


Matchbox cars were great... :mrgreen:

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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gord » Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:22 am

My friends all think they're above-average drivers because they keep narrowly avoiding accidents, and I think they're all below-average drivers because they keep getting into situations where they have to rely on luck to narrowly avoid accidents. The four instances I'm thinking of involve spinning around and around on ice, and slipping in and out of spots between other cars like the teeth of gears fitting together. In each of those instances, I would have slowed down beforehand to avoid losing control and entering the spin.

Make that five instances. I just remembered the first one, when the driver was 16.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby scrmbldggs » Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:47 am

But spinning on ice and slipping into a spot between other cars is how one parks a car in the winter! :pardon:
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Re: Above average ?

Postby JO 753 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:43 am

O wait. That wuz Ace Ventura, Pet Detective 2. "Like a glove!"
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Re: Above average ?

Postby xouper » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:12 am

Gord wrote:My friends all think they're above-average drivers because they keep narrowly avoiding accidents, and I think they're all below-average drivers because they keep getting into situations where they have to rely on luck to narrowly avoid accidents.


Exactly.

When I was 20, my flight instructor told me that a truly superior pilot avoids putting himself in a position that would require superior skill to get out of. Unless of course you're a professional airshow pilot or a professional race race driver.

Apparently he felt the need to tell me that after having just witnessed me getting out of a situation that I was stupid to get into. He was on the ground watching and when I landed and parked, he walked over and said, "WTF were you thinking!!!" :oops:

I didn't think I had done anything wrong or careless, but then, that's why we have flight instructors.

I may forgotten a lot of what I learned in life, but that's not one of them.

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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gord » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:23 am

scrmbldggs wrote:But spinning on ice and slipping into a spot between other cars is how one parks a car in the winter! :pardon:

Yes, but none of them were trying to park at the time. Or even ended up parked. Heck, one of them never even slowed down below 60, which is a good thing 'cause the semi behind us didn't slow down either.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby xouper » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:38 am

Speaking of your car spinning around at high speed:

https://i.imgur.com/3HYNNGz.gifv

Another example, but a bit slower:

https://i.imgur.com/ZcXNm9J.gifv

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Re: Above average ?

Postby ElectricMonk » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:00 am

It's not only confirmation, but also survivorship-bias.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
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1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby JO 753 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:47 pm

xouper wrote:Speaking of your car spinning around at high speed:

https://i.imgur.com/3HYNNGz.gifv


Dumass uzed the rong air freshener! :lol:
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Re: Above average ?

Postby scrmbldggs » Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:03 am

ElectricMonk wrote:It's not only confirmation, but also survivorship-bias.

Hey, I'm glad you're biased you survived. Some time no see!
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Re: Above average ?

Postby ElectricMonk » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:06 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote:It's not only confirmation, but also survivorship-bias.

Hey, I'm glad you're biased you survived. Some time no see!


Thanks!

like coffee, I'm trying to reduce my forum consumption.
Relapses will happen from time to time, though.

moving along...
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Above average ?

Postby Nikki Nyx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:05 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Here is a status challenge!

I am way better than you in number of typos. You just see the end product, after I have been through it twice. Man, there is no one in this world capable of making more mistakes than me.
Disagree. Try typing with muscle spasms. I'd be willing to bet that the "delete" key on my keyboard gets the most use. Thank the stars for preview mode! :mrgreen: Without it, I'm sure that Gord would be following me around the forums, gleefully correcting my mistakes. :nyaah:
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Nikki Nyx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:09 am

ElectricMonk wrote:like coffee, I'm trying to reduce my forum consumption.
Simultaneously?! :shockd: Good to see you, EM.
What are the facts? Again and again and again-what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history”--what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gord » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:17 am

Gord doesn't experience glee, he dispenses it.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:44 pm

Poodle wrote:I have heard it said that roughly half of all drivers are above average.

That's wrong. Most drivers are average.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby xouper » Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:08 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Poodle wrote:I have heard it said that roughly half of all drivers are above average.

That's wrong. Most drivers are average.


If we're going to be pedantic here    :rules:    and it seems you are — than Gawdzilla is wrong and Poodle is right.

In statistics there are three kinds of "average", and thus one might look to the context to see if it can be inferred which kind is meant.

It seems clear from Poodle's statement he meant "median", in which case he is correct.

(Or to put it the other way around, in order for Poodle's statement to be correct, it must be inferred that he meant "median", so that's the most reasonable inference to make.)

With a normal distribution, the number of drivers who are exactly at the "mean" (or the "mode") are outnumbered by all the others, even though most of them are close to that. Thus Gawdzilla's statement is not correct for any of the three kinds of "average".

In order for Gawdzilla's statement to be right, that would also have to include those within one standard deviation of the "mean", which then gets you about 68 percent of the drivers.

If we allow a much looser definition of "average" than what is defined in statistics, then a charitable interpretation can be made that Gawzilla's statement is more or less correct.

So, if we set pedantics aside, everyone wins. :award:

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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gord » Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:50 am

xouper wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Poodle wrote:I have heard it said that roughly half of all drivers are above average.

That's wrong. Most drivers are average.

If we're going to be pedantic here    :rules:    and it seems you are — than Gawdzilla is wrong and Poodle is right.

Did someone declare pedantic?!

then
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:22 am

Some idiots insist on thinking a bell curve only allows for one person for each point on it. Might be true of some bell curves, but populations aren't graphed on bell curves.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby xouper » Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:31 am

Gord wrote:
xouper wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Poodle wrote:I have heard it said that roughly half of all drivers are above average.

That's wrong. Most drivers are average.

If we're going to be pedantic here    :rules:    and it seems you are — than Gawdzilla is wrong and Poodle is right.

Did someone declare pedantic?!

then


Just seeing if you were awake over there. Seems you are. Carry on . . . :D

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Re: Above average ?

Postby xouper » Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:34 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Some idiots insist on thinking a bell curve only allows for one person for each point on it. Might be true of some bell curves, but populations aren't graphed on bell curves.


Since I did not make that mistake, that criticism does not apply to me.

Seems no one here made that mistake.

Someone must be seeing ghosts, I guess.

Look, I tried to come up with a charitable interpretation of your comment about "averages" so that you wouldn't look like a total doofus. Don't I get any credit for that?

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Re: Above average ?

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:42 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Some idiots insist on thinking a bell curve only allows for one person for each point on it. Might be true of some bell curves, but populations aren't graphed on bell curves.

Wut?????

Not that we have even any attempt at what constitutes good or bad driving.............but still. EVERY bell curve is based on one person for each point on it. Does Xouper have to ask you in addition to myself what are you referring to before you deign to explain your special context?
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Re: Above average ?

Postby Austin Harper » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:29 pm

If rating all drivers skill levels from 0-100, then I would say most drivers are between 40 and 60, a very few are scattered between 60 and 100, and some are between 10 and 40, and a bunch are between 0 and 10, enough to pull the average score down well below a 40.
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Re: Above average ?

Postby JO 753 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:58 pm

Wut about Speed Raser? He'z gotta be like 295.

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Re: Above average ?

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:15 am

Austin Harper wrote:If rating all drivers skill levels from 0-100, then I would say most drivers are between 40 and 60, a very few are scattered between 60 and 100, and some are between 10 and 40, and a bunch are between 0 and 10, enough to pull the average score down well below a 40.

You have to admit that when we met you had no complaints about my driving.
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